
以色列反对派领导人加迪·艾森科特获得了组建新政府的机会。此前,总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟在10月的选举中失去了议会多数席位,这使得他长期执政的局面有可能走向终结。
Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has been given the opportunity to form a new government after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in the October elections, raising the possibility of an end to his long tenure in power.
在与各政党进行磋商后,总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格于周六选择了这位前军方负责人。艾森科特有28天的时间来拼凑一个联盟以组建政府。如果他未能在那段期限内组建新政府,他可以寻求14天的延期。
President Isaac Herzog selected the former military chief on Saturday, following consultations with political parties. Eisenkot has 28 days to cobble together a coalition to form a government. If he fails to form a new administration within that period, he can seek a 14-day extension.
“现在是组建国家紧急政府的时候了。我将竭尽全力确保我们不负使命,”亚沙尔党领导人艾森科特在发帖说。然而,这位66岁的老将面临着严峻的挑战,因为许多反对党在国家安全、宗教以及以色列对巴勒斯坦领土的占领等问题上存在着严重冲突的立场。
“Now is the time to form a national emergency government. I will do everything to ensure we are worthy,” Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar party, posted on However, the 66-year-old faces a difficult challenge as many of the opposition parties hold sharply conflicting positions on national security, religion and the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory.
在拥有120个席位的以色列议会(Knesset)中,艾森科特和内塔尼亚胡都不具备61个席位的多数优势。
Neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu has a 61-seat majority in Israel’s 120-member parliament, the Knesset.
因此,阿拉伯政党在决定谁来统治以色列方面拥有潜在的决定性作用,尽管艾森科特及其潜在的合作伙伴拒绝依赖他们的支持。
As a result, Arab-led parties hold a potentially decisive role in determining who governs Israel, even as Eisenkot and his prospective partners refuse to rely on their support.
那么,我们现在对艾森科特通往权力之路有哪些了解,他能成功将内塔尼亚胡赶下台吗?艾森科特能否团结以色列分裂的反对派?
So what do we now know about Eisenkot’s possible paths to power, and can he succeed in unseating Netanyahu? Can Eisenkot unite Israel’s divided opposition?
艾森科特的潜在联盟涵盖了他的亚沙尔党、亚伊尔·戈兰领导的中左翼民主党、纳夫塔利·贝内特的中间偏右“团结”党以及阿维格多·利伯曼的右翼“以色列是我们的家园”党。总体而言,他们控制着48个席位,距离多数席位尚有很大差距。
Eisenkot’s potential coalition spans his Yashar party, the centre-left Democrats led by Yair Golan, Naftali Bennett’s centre-right Together party and Avigdor Lieberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home). Overall, they control 48 seats, well short of a majority.
阿拉伯人主导的政党“联合阿拉伯名单”(Ra'am)和“联合名单”(由3个政党组成——哈达什党、塔阿尔党和巴拉德党)——共计拥有19个席位——已支持艾森科特组建政府的尝试。他们的支持将使更广泛的反内塔尼亚胡阵营总共获得67个席位。
Arab-led parties Ra’am (United List) and the Joint List (comprising three parties – Hadash, Ta’al and Balad) – jointly holding 19 seats – have endorsed Eisenkot’s attempt to form a government. Their backing would give the broader anti-Netanyahu camp a combined 67 seats.
哈达什是一个阿拉伯-犹太政党,塔阿勒主张以色列境内巴勒斯坦公民的权利,而巴拉德要求所有公民享有平等权利。
Hadash is an Arab-Jewish party, Ta’al advocates for the rights of Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Balad demands equal rights for all its citizens.
然而,艾森科特已排除将阿拉伯政党纳入其政府,而利伯曼多次拒绝组建依赖其支持的少数派政府。戈兰的民主党则更愿意与拉姆党和联合名单合作。
However, Eisenkot has ruled out bringing Arab parties into his government, while Lieberman has repeatedly rejected forming a minority administration dependent on their support. Golan’s Democrats have been more willing to partner with Ra’am and the Joint List.
戈兰在选举后表示:“我们绝不能再接受内塔尼亚胡在犹太选票和阿拉伯选票之间制造的种族主义分裂。”内塔尼亚胡的联盟现在有多少席位?
“We must no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes,” Golan said after the election. How many seats does Netanyahu’s coalition have now?
内塔尼亚胡的宗教-民族主义联盟已从2022年获得的64个席位跌至53个,距离多数席位还差8席。
Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist coalition has fallen from the 64 seats it secured in 2022 to 53, eight seats short of a majority.
他的利库德集团以27个席位成为最大单一政党,而艾森科特的“直道党”获得了21个席位。
His Likud is the largest individual party with 27 seats, while Eisenkot’s Yashar won 21.
内塔尼亚胡为继续掌权所做的努力遭受了进一步挫折,长期的极端正统派盟友“联合托拉犹太教党”在与赫尔佐格的磋商中,拒绝背书内塔尼亚胡或任何其他候选人。
Netanyahu’s efforts to remain in power suffered a further setback when United Torah Judaism, a longtime ultra-Orthodox ally, declined to endorse him or any other candidate during consultations with Herzog.
虽然这一决定损害了内塔尼亚胡重掌大权的前景,但并未排除该党在未来联盟谈判中支持他的可能性,前提是满足他们的要求,特别是他们所反对的强制极端正统派犹太人服兵役。什么是少数派政府?
While the decision hurts Netanyahu’s prospects of regaining power, it did not rule out the party supporting him in future coalition negotiations if their demands were met, particularly compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, which they reject. What is a minority government?
如果艾森科特无法组建联盟,他有可能领导一个由阿拉伯政党在外部支持的少数派政府。
If Eisenkot is unable to put together a coalition, he could potentially lead a minority government backed by Arab parties from outside.
少数派政府是指担任内阁职务的政党合计并不控制议会多数席位而组建的政府。相反,它们依赖执政联盟之外的议员支持以维持执政并通过立法。
A minority government is formed when the parties holding cabinet positions do not collectively control a majority of seats in parliament. Instead, they depend on support from lawmakers outside the governing coalition to remain in power and pass legislation.
艾森科特可凭借其四党集团,依靠拉姆党和联合名单的外部议会支持来建立此类政府。在这种安排下,阿拉伯主导的政党不一定会获得内阁职位或正式加入联盟。他们也可以通过谈判达成政策让步,以换取其议会支持。
Eisenkot could establish such an administration with his four-party bloc relying on external parliamentary support from Ra’am and the Joint List Under this arrangement, the Arab-led parties would not necessarily receive cabinet positions or formally join the coalition. They could instead negotiate policy concessions in exchange for their parliamentary support.
2021年,拉阿姆加入由贝内特领导的政府,成为第一个加入以色列执政联盟的独立阿拉伯政党。
In 2021, Ra’am joined a government led by Bennett, becoming the first independent Arab party to participate in an Israeli governing coalition.
该届政府在18个月后倒台,主要原因是就约旦河西岸被占领土上的非法定居点和巴勒斯坦建国问题存在分歧。多数以色列政党不支持作为所谓“两国方案”一部分的主权巴勒斯坦国的建立。
That administration collapsed after 18 months, mainly due to disagreements over the illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank and Palestinian statehood. Most Israeli parties do not support the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state as part of the so-called two-state solution.
在过去20年里大部分时间掌权的内塔尼亚胡公开拒绝巴勒斯坦建国,并推动定居点扩张,而这是实现巴勒斯坦建国最大的障碍。根据国际法,定居点被视为非法的。组建政府的其他可能途径有哪些?
Netanyahu, who has been in power for most of the past 20 years, has openly rejected Palestinian statehood and has pushed settlement expansions that are the biggest hurdles in the realisation of Palestinian statehood. Settlements are considered illegal under international law. What are the other possible paths to forming a government?
除了少数派政府之外,埃森科特还可以试图通过将以色列的两个极端正统派政党——沙斯党和联合托拉犹太教党拉入其联盟,来确保获得议会多数席位。
Beyond a minority government, Eisenkot could attempt to secure a parliamentary majority by bringing Israel’s two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, into his coalition.
它们共拥有13个席位,这将使埃森科特的阵营刚好达到获得多数席位所需的61个席位。
Together, they hold 13 seats, which would give Eisenkot’s bloc exactly the 61 seats required for a majority.
然而,这样的联盟将需要在极端正统派宗教学生免服兵役问题上做出妥协,这一议题长期以来在以色列政坛引发分歧。
However, such an alliance would require compromises over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox religious students, an issue that has long divided Israeli politics.
埃森科特及其盟友,特别是利伯曼,曾批评过这些豁免。但利伯曼最近暗示,他对妥协持开放态度。
Eisenkot and his allies, particularly Lieberman, have criticised the exemptions. But Lieberman has recently indicated that he is open to compromise.
虽然联合托拉犹太教党拒绝支持内塔尼亚胡,但沙斯党支持了这位四面楚歌的首相。
While United Torah Judaism has refused to endorse Netanyahu, Shas backed the beleaguered prime minister.
另一种选择是建立一个由埃森科特的“向前”、贝内特组建的“一起”党、利伯曼的“以色列是我们的家园”以及内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团组成的联合政府。
Another option would be a unity government involving Eisenkot’s Yashar, Bennett’s Together party, Lieberman’s Israel Our Home and Netanyahu’s Likud.
这样的联盟将拥有67个席位,但需要埃森科特及其伙伴放弃他们将内塔尼亚胡赶下台的核心竞选承诺。
Such an alliance would command 67 seats, but would require Eisenkot and his partners to abandon their central election pledge to remove Netanyahu from power.
如果艾森科特未能在规定时间内组建政府,赫尔佐格可能会给内塔尼亚胡机会组建执政联盟。
If Eisenkot fails to form a government within the required time, Herzog could give Netanyahu an opportunity to form a governing coalition.
如果两位领导人都失败,议会可以提名另一位候选人。如果在持续100天的进程后仍未能组建政府,以色列人可能再次面临大选。这为何重要?
Should both leaders fail, parliament could nominate another candidate. If no government emerges after a process lasting 100 days, Israelis could be heading to the polls again. Why does this matter?
谈判不仅可能决定谁将成为以色列下一任总理,还可能决定哪些政党控制关键部门,并塑造经济、兵役征召和被占巴勒斯坦领土方面的政策。
The negotiations could determine not only who becomes Israel’s next prime minister, but also which political parties control key ministries and shape policies on the economy, military conscription and the occupied Palestinian territory.
艾森科特反对派阵营的几名成员曾担任高级政府职务,包括在2021年将内塔尼亚胡赶下台的联盟政府中任职。
Several members of Eisenkot’s opposition bloc have previously held senior government positions, including in the coalition that removed Netanyahu from power in 2021.
贝内特曾于2021年至2022年担任总理,长期反对建立巴勒斯坦国,并主张吞并被占约旦河西岸的大片地区。
Bennett, who served as prime minister from 2021 to 2022, has long opposed the establishment of a Palestinian state and advocated annexing large parts of the occupied West Bank.
在2021年5月以色列对加沙发动的为期11天的战争期间,当时作为反对派政治人物的贝内特支持内塔尼亚胡对巴勒斯坦飞地的军事进攻。以色列袭击造成250多名巴勒斯坦人死亡。
During Israel’s 11-day war on Gaza in May 2021, Bennett, then an opposition politician, backed Netanyahu’s military offensive in the Palestinian enclave. More than 250 Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks.
与此同时,利伯曼曾在贝内特政府中担任财政部长,此前曾在内塔尼亚胡手下担任国防部长。
Meanwhile, Lieberman served as finance minister in Bennett’s government and previously held the defence portfolio under Netanyahu.
他曾提出,在与巴勒斯坦人达成最终和平协议的背景下,用以色列本土的一些阿拉伯社区交换被占约旦河西岸的犹太人定居点。
He previously proposed swapping some Arab communities in Israel proper for Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank in the context of a final peace deal with the Palestinians.
利伯曼的政党支持非法定居点扩张,包括E1,并吞并整个C区,即已完全处于以色列控制下的被占约旦河西岸60%的领土。E1即“东1号定居点”,是一条面积12平方公里、拥有数千个住房单元的走廊。它将把约旦河西岸一分为二。
Lieberman’s party backs illegal settlement expansion, including E1, and annexing all of Area C, 60 percent of the occupied West Bank already under full Israeli control. E1, which stands for East 1 settlement, is a 12sq km corridor with thousands of housing units. It will cut the West Bank into two parts.
艾森科特本人曾在内塔尼亚胡的战时内阁任职,后因对加沙种族灭绝行动的实施方式存在分歧而离开政府。他并未反对种族灭绝,但批评内塔尼亚胡将政治生存置于安全考量之上。
Eisenkot himself served in Netanyahu’s wartime cabinet before leaving the government after disagreements over the conduct of the genocide in Gaza. He has not opposed the genocide but criticised Netanyahu for prioritising his political survival over security considerations.
他称巴勒斯坦建国的想法是“妄想”,并支持“加强”非法定居点。
He has called the idea of a Palestinian state “delusional”, and he supports “strengthening” illegal settlements.