Investing.com - 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示，欧元区通胀在未来几个季度将保持高位，这表明需要出现“重大变化”才能阻止决策者在12月再次加息。
Investing.com - Euro zone inflation will remain elevated over the coming quarters, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said, signaling that it would take "significant changes" to deter policymakers from raising interest rates again in December.
据日本《读卖新闻》周六刊登的专访报道，拉加德指出，尽管价格压力预计将持续，但二轮通胀传导迄今仍在央行预期范围内发展。
In an interview published Saturday by Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun, Lagarde noted that while price pressures are set to persist, secondary inflation pass-through has so far developed within the central bank’s expectations.
拉加德对该报表示：“我们知道，未来几个季度通胀数据将维持高位。通胀越高、维持高位的时间越长，对我们中期目标的风险就越大。” 此番言论是在欧洲央行10月下旬决定将基准存款利率维持在2.50%不变之后发表的。然而，随着21个成员国组成的货币联盟整体通胀率达到央行2%目标的两倍——自中东冲突爆发以来，全球原油和欧洲天然气价格飙升助推了通胀——管委会内部的鹰派人士越来越强烈地呼吁重启紧缩政策。
"We know that inflation numbers will remain high in the quarters to come," Lagarde told the newspaper. "The higher they are, and the longer they remain high, the greater the risk to our medium-term target." The remarks follow the ECB’s decision in late October to hold its benchmark deposit rate steady at 2.50%. However, with headline inflation across the 21-member currency bloc running at double the central bank’s 2% objective - fueled by the surge in global crude and European natural gas prices since the eruption of the Middle East conflict - Governing Council hawks have increasingly pushed for renewed tightening.
关注工资与金融状况 尽管10月核心通胀维持在2.5%不变，拉加德表示，决策者将在决定下个月是否实施25个基点加息（这将标志着本轮周期的第三次加息）前，审视细分指标。
Gauging wages and financial conditions While core inflation held unchanged in October at 2.5%, Lagarde indicated that policymakers will scrutinize granular components before deciding whether to deliver a 25-basis-point hike next month, which would mark the third rate increase of the current cycle.
关键在于，欧洲央行行长指出，工资指标尚未触发令人担忧的上升螺旋。
Crucially, the ECB chief noted that wage metrics have not yet triggered an alarming upward spiral.
“目前，我们看到的二轮效应并未超出我们预测中已纳入的范围，”拉加德表示。“我们正密切关注前瞻性指标——多年期工资协议、企业的工资预期——目前尚未看到发生转变的证据。”欧洲央行政策前景与宏观经济背景增长困境与接班人竞争决策者面临的一大核心挑战是，进一步收紧政策是否会拖垮欧元区的经济势头。若在12月再加息25个基点，借贷成本将被推至中性政策区间的上限，超过该区间后利率将主动抑制增长。
"For the moment, we’re not seeing second-round effects beyond what we have incorporated in our projections," Lagarde said. "We’re watching carefully the forward-looking indicators - multi-year wage agreements, companies’ wage expectations - and we don’t see evidence of a shift yet." ECB Policy Outlook & Macroeconomic Setting Growth dilemma and succession race A central challenge confronting policymakers is whether further tightening risks derailing economic momentum across the euro area. An additional quarter-point hike in December would push borrowing costs to the upper bound of the neutral policy range, beyond which interest rates actively restrict growth.
此外，近期全球主权债券收益率飙升——由企业大规模发债和主权风险溢价上升推动，如法国10年期国债收益率所见——已对信贷渠道施加了限制性压力。尽管存在这些交叉影响，拉加德重申，政策倾向仍偏向收紧。
Furthermore, the recent worldwide surge in sovereign bond yields - spurred by heavy corporate debt issuance and heightened sovereign risk premiums, as seen in French 10-year OAT yields - is already exerting restrictive pressure on credit channels.
“今天我无法告诉你们我们肯定会在12月这么做，”她说。“我所知道的是，基于我们目前掌握的信息，要让政策走向偏离我的预期，需要发生重大变化。”
Despite those cross-currents, Lagarde reiterated that the bias remains toward tighter policy.
即将到来的利率决议恰逢欧洲货币政策掌舵人的领导层交接。70岁的拉加德上月宣布，她将于2027年2月卸任，比正式任期结束早九个月。欧元集团周五确认，荷兰央行行长克诺特和西班牙央行前行长埃雷拉·德科斯已成为接任她的主要候选人。
"I cannot tell you today that we will for sure do this in December," she said. "What I know is that, on the basis of the information we have today, it would take significant changes for the direction of travel to be different from what I expect." The looming rate decision coincides with a leadership transition at the helm of European monetary policy. Lagarde, 70, announced last month that she will step down in February 2027, nine months before the formal end of her term. The Eurogroup confirmed on Friday that Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot and former Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos have emerged as the leading candidates to succeed her.