佛罗里达州塔拉哈西 —— 罗恩·德桑蒂斯本周在CNN上宣称，他将在“1月5日之后成为自由人” —— 这是指他担任佛罗里达州州长的两个任期将届满。但他已经开始对中期选举惨败后本党的短板提出尖锐批评，引发了关于他政治前途的猜测。
TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Ron DeSantis declared on CNN this week that he will be a “free man after Jan. 5” — a nod to the end of his two terms as governor of Florida. But he’s already offering biting commentary about the shortcomings of his own party after the midterm bloodbath, giving rise to speculation about his political future.
佛罗里达州共和党仅以微弱优势挡住了席卷包括得克萨斯州在内许多红州的“蓝色浪潮”，这更增强了他在寻找强有力的2028年候选人的保守派心中的吸引力。
That Florida Republicans narrowly staved off the blue wave that swept so many red states, including Texas, only fuels his appeal to conservatives looking for a strong 2028 candidate.
“这是德桑蒂斯的时代，”保守派电台主持人、特朗普2020年竞选法律顾问珍娜·埃利斯表示，她援引州长的政策胜利，并辩称共和党人“压倒性地拒绝了个人崇拜”。“德桑蒂斯处于独特位置，因为他既非MAGA（让美国再次伟大）派系，也非建制派，”她继续说道，“所以他能够、将会 —— 并且已经 —— 在保持坚强和原则的同时批评双方。”
“This is DeSantis’ time,” said conservative radio host and former Trump 2020 campaign legal adviser Jenna Ellis, citing policy wins by the governor and arguing that Republicans “overwhelmingly rejected the cult of personality.”“DeSantis is in a unique position because he is neither MAGA nor establishment,” she continued, “so [he] can and will — and has — criticized both while remaining strong and principled.”
前佛罗里达州共和党主席布莱兹·因戈利亚刚刚在州首席财务官竞选中险胜，他表示，关于德桑蒂斯总统潜力的讨论重新浮现并不令人惊讶。“州长应因创造了佛罗里达州抵御民主党大规模获胜的环境而受到赞誉，”他说。
Blaise Ingoglia, a former Florida GOP chair who narrowly won his race for state chief financial officer, added it was not surprising that talk about DeSantis’ presidential potential is resurfacing. “The governor should be credited for creating that environment” where Florida resisted broad Democratic wins, he said.
一位接近德桑蒂斯的人士，获准匿名以便坦率发言，表示共和党在中期选举中的表现“为德桑蒂斯在2028年打开了一条巨大的通道”，“这条通道没有人公开讨论过，但对任何审视政治版图的人来说都相当显而易见。”该人士补充说，如果出现空缺，德桑蒂斯同样会是最高法院大法官“极其合格”的人选。
One person close to DeSantis, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said the GOP performance in the midterms “opened a massive lane” for DeSantis in 2028 “that has not really been discussed by anyone openly but is fairly obvious to anyone surveying the landscape.”That person added that DeSantis would likewise be "incredibly well qualified” for the Supreme Court should a vacancy emerge.
但围绕这位共和党州长未来政治计划的炒作在中期选举后每天都在升温。周五晚间，在《华盛顿邮报》发布报道称德桑蒂斯已联系一位政治顾问商讨潜在竞选事宜后，佛罗里达州州长在社交媒体上强力驳斥了该报道。
But the hype around the GOP governor’s future political plans has heated up every day post-midterms. On Friday night, after The Washington Post published a report saying DeSantis had reached out to a political consultant about working on a potential campaign, Florida’s governor forcefully rebuffed their piece on social media.
“《华盛顿邮报》是在凭空捏造，”德桑蒂斯在X平台上写道。“我没有联系任何人谈论竞选任何职位的事。”德桑蒂斯在新冠疫情期间因抵制许多其他州采取的限制措施而声名鹊起，并在2024年竞选总统失败前，介入了关于种族和性别认同的斗争。他的竞选活动筹集了大量资金，但仅撑到了爱荷华州党团会议，部分原因是前总统唐纳德·特朗普及其盟友的无情攻击。
“The Washington Post is fabricating this out of whole cloth,” DeSantis wrote on X. “I have not reached out to anybody about running for anything.”DeSantis rose to national prominence during the Covid-19 pandemic for resisting many of the restrictions other states adopted, and waded into battles over race and gender identity ahead of his unsuccessful 2024 run for president. His campaign raised substantial sums of money but only managed to survive through the Iowa caucuses, in part because of the relentless attacks by President Donald Trump and his allies.
在2024年竞选总统之前，德桑蒂斯被吹捧为一个更聪明、更自律的特朗普，没有戏剧性却拥有所有刀光剑影般的强硬作风和“羞辱自由派”的能力。他将移民送往马萨葡萄园岛，因LGBTQ权利问题与华特迪士尼公司交锋，并因将佛罗里达州转变为一个共和党主导的据点而受到赞誉，该州共和党选民登记人数比民主党多出150万。
Ahead of his 2024 presidential run, DeSantis was hyped as a smarter, more disciplined Trump who had none of the drama but all the knife-fighting toughness and ability to “own the libs.”He flew migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, fought the Walt Disney Corp. over LGBTQ rights and was praised for transforming the state into a Republican-led powerhouse where GOP voter registration bloomed to 1.5 million more than Democrats.
然而，他在塔拉哈西的最后两年却更加坎坷，因为他与州众议院共和党人发生冲突，后者不太倾向于落实他的议程（他曾强行推动州立法机构大幅修改州规则，以便于他竞选总统），并在州长竞选中一直置身事外，直到共和党众议员拜伦·唐纳兹赢得初选后才介入。周二，共和党在州立法机构也失去了大量席位，打破了他在任期间共和党拥有的超级多数优势。
His last two years in Tallahassee, however, have been bumpier as he tussled with state House Republicans who were less inclined to fulfill his agenda (he once strong-armed the state Legislature to dramatically change state rules to ease his to run for president) and stayed on the sidelines in the governor’s race until after the primary was won by GOP Rep. Byron Donalds. Republicans also lost a large number of seats in the state Legislature on Tuesday, breaking the GOP supermajority he had under his tenure.
一位获准匿名坦率发言的佛罗里达州共和党操盘手表示，随着他的州长任期接近尾声，他已开始规划向私人生活的过渡。据报道，德桑蒂斯正在波尔克县购买住房。“显而易见的是，他将继续像往常一样对美国政治发表见解，”这位操盘手说。
As his time as governor winds down, he’s been starting to plan for his transition to private life, said one Florida GOP operative granted anonymity to speak candidly. Reports have noted that DeSantis was buying a home in Polk County. “What’s obvious is he will continue to opine on American politics as he has always done,” the operative said.
关于再次竞选总统，这位助手补充道：“唯一知道他2028年计划的人，就在他的两耳之间。”另一位共和党顾问表示，德桑蒂斯计划在卸任后继续进行演讲活动，并“为2028年保留选择余地”，但更有可能是在着眼于2032年竞选总统的可能性。该人士补充说，这位州长已经成立了一个智库，他将利用它来帮助重建和塑造共和党，并提出政策构想。州长计划继续推动平衡预算修正案和任期限制。
As for running for president again the operative added: “The only person who knows his 2028 plans is between his two ears.”Another GOP consultant said DeSantis plans to continue speaking engagements after his time in office and was “keeping options open for 2028” but was more likely looking ahead to the possibility of running for president in 2032. The person added that the governor had formed a think tank he’ll use to help rebuild and shape the Republican Party and propose policy ideas. The governor plans to continue his pushes for a balanced budget amendment and for term limits.
虽然一些盟友曾提出德桑蒂斯在特朗普政府任职，但目前没有空缺职位，且三位共和党顾问表示他对此没有兴趣。阻碍德桑蒂斯加入特朗普政府的一个障碍——苏西·怀尔斯——在周五瓦解了，当时特朗普宣布将用斯蒂芬·米勒取代她担任幕僚长。怀尔斯与德桑蒂斯之间存在积怨，源于德桑蒂斯将她从其政治团队中清除出去。
While some allies have floated DeSantis working in the Trump administration, there are currently no vacancies and three GOP consultants said he wouldn’t have interest in doing so. One barrier to DeSantis joining the Trump administration, Susie Wiles, crumbled Friday when Trump announced he was replacing her as chief of staff with Stephen Miller. There had been bad blood between Wiles and DeSantis stemming back to when he ousted her from his political operation.
白宫拒绝置评，特朗普本周告诉福克斯新闻频道的玛莎·麦卡勒姆，就2028年以及他可能的背书而言，共和党拥有“一群很棒的、有才华的人，我认为他们会做得非常好”。关于德桑蒂斯前途的传言和社交媒体议论，始于他在选举翌晨于塔拉哈西举行的新闻发布会，他在会上严厉抨击了共和党在中期选举中的表现，涉及股票交易、爱泼斯坦档案和伊朗战争等议题。他自夸佛罗里达州守住了共和党据点——即使他承认这曾危险地接近面临得克萨斯州同样的命运。
The White House declined to comment, and Trump told Fox News Channel’s Martha MacCallum this week that as far as 2028 and his possible endorsement was concerned, Republicans had a “great group of talented people that I think would do a very good job.”Rumors and chatter on social media about DeSantis’ future started after he held a press conference in Tallahassee the morning after the election in which he eviscerated the GOP’s performance in the midterms on issues from stock trading to the Epstein files and the war in Iran. He boasted that Florida had hung on as a GOP state — even as he conceded it came dangerously close to facing the same fate as Texas.
德桑蒂斯周三全天还奔走于有线电视新闻节目之间。在被反复问及2028年竞选总统的计划时，他避而不谈，但承认没有排除未来参选的可能性。
DeSantis also hit the cable news circuit throughout the day Wednesday. Asked repeatedly about his plans to run for president in 2028, he demurred but acknowledged he hasn’t ruled out a run in the future.
他反复强调，如果国会由民主党控制多数席位，共和党总统要推行“保守派改革议程”将面临多大困难——并预测，鉴于未来几个选举周期中面临改选的席位情况，共和党可能要等到2032年才能在国会赢得多数席位。他在《The Sage Steele Show》节目中表示，共和党如果没有得克萨斯州可能无法赢得选举人团投票，这也是“显然我在考虑的事情”。
He repeatedly stressed how difficult it would be for a Republican president to get a “conservative reform agenda” passed with Democratic majorities in Congress — and predicted that, given which seats are up for reelection in the coming cycles, Republicans may not be able to gain a majority in Congress until 2032. The idea that a Republican might not be able to win the Electoral College without Texas was also “something that obviously I’m thinking of,” he said on “The Sage Steele Show.”
“如果我竞选任何公职，”他说，“唯一的条件是你能真正交付重大成果。”这位州长还强调，他在明年初卸任前仍有更多工作要做，包括在特别会议期间与立法机构合作，落实选民批准的减免财产税措施。
“The only way I would run for any office,” he said, “is if you can actually deliver big results.”The governor also has stressed that he has more work to do before leaving office early next year, including working with the Legislature during a special session to implement a property tax cut approved by voters.
被问及州长的未来去向时，德桑蒂斯办公室发言人亚历克斯·拉弗兰科尼指向他在近期媒体露面时给出的回答。
Asked about the governor’s future, DeSantis office spokesperson Alex Lafranconi pointed to answers he gave in recent media appearances.
德桑蒂斯并非唯一一位因2028年大选备受关注、且对中期选举进行预测的共和党重量级人物。副总统JD·万斯发布长篇社交媒体帖子，称政府需要专注于结束伊朗战争。得克萨斯州共和党联邦参议员特德·克鲁兹同样表示，战争已经持续“太久”，物价过高，而共和党政客“要么不理解，要么不在乎”。“对于任何考虑竞选总统的人来说，他们现在的目标是定义中期选举后的叙事：他们都将试图解释发生了什么、为什么会发生，以及共和党通往2028年的前进道路是什么，”Ballard Partners合伙人、佛罗里达州前共和党州长杰布·布什的前顾问贾斯汀·塞菲说。
DeSantis wasn’t the only major Republican who’s been buzzed about for 2028 who was prognosticating about the midterms. Vice President JD Vance issued a lengthy social media post saying the administration needed to focus on ending the war in Iran. GOP Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas similarly said the war had gone on “too long” and that prices were too high while GOP politicians “didn’t understand or they didn’t care.”“For anyone thinking of running for president, their objective right now is to define the post-midterm narrative: They all are going to attempt to explain what happened, why it happened and what the path forward is for the Republican Party going into 2028,” said Justin Sayfie, a partner at Ballard Partners and former adviser to former GOP Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida.
佛罗里达州共和党操盘手布雷特·多斯特也表示，佛罗里达州的中期选举表现为德桑蒂斯奠定了良好基础。
GOP Florida operative Brett Doster also said Florida’s midterm performance sets up DeSantis well.
“周二对华盛顿特区共和党领导风格和不明确议程的强烈谴责之后，德桑蒂斯州长处于独特位置，可以成为一名批评者，并论证2028年需要的是一位佛罗里达州州长，”他说。
“After Tuesday's very intense rebuke to the leadership style and unclear agenda of the DC GOP, Gov. DeSantis is uniquely positioned to be a critic and make the case that a Florida governor is what is needed for 2028,” he said.
但德桑蒂斯也有直言不讳的批评者。前共和党众议员马特·盖茨在一美电视新闻网（One America News Network）的一个节目中担任主播时，虽然称他为“优秀的州长”，却指责德桑蒂斯的“美国优先”立场言论是“表演”和“民粹民族主义的展示”。
But DeSantis also has vocal critics. Former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, while calling him a “great governor,” chided DeSantis’ America First-aligned comments as “an act” and a “display of populist nationalism” during a segment on One America News Network, where he’s an anchor.
“罗恩·德桑蒂斯是我们的民粹英雄、将带领我们走出困境这一想法纯属胡说八道，”他说，并指出自己曾担任2018年州长职权交接联合主席，很了解这位州长。
“The notion that Ron DeSantis is our populist hero that’s going to lead us out of this is nonsense,” he said, noting he’d been a co-chair on the 2018 gubernatorial transition and knew the governor well.
一名前特朗普2024年竞选团队工作人员批评了德桑蒂斯在2028年竞选总统的想法，指出尽管他以大热门身份参选，却在爱荷华州以30个百分点的差距落败。
A former Trump 2024 campaign operative panned the idea of DeSantis running for president in 2028, pointing to his 30-point loss in Iowa despite entering the race as the presumed favorite.
“他花费数百万美元试图说服共和党选民他是该党的未来，结果却证明他缺乏魅力、直觉和获胜能力，”此人说。“他的野心只有他惊人的缺乏自我认知可以匹敌。”
“He spent millions trying to convince Republican voters he was the future of the party, only to prove he lacked the charisma, instincts and ability to win,” the person said. “His ambition is exceeded only by his staggering lack of self-awareness.”