佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯正在为竞选总统做准备。国务卿马可·鲁比奥则在远离自己竞选白宫的想法。
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is positioning himself for a presidential run. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is running away from the idea of his own campaign for the White House.
为何重要：这两位佛罗里达州共和党人的政治姿态——或是起草他们二人中任一位参加2028年大选的努力——凸显了接替特朗普总统的共和党“过早”初选竞选突然出现的动荡 • 在周二中期选举共和党惨败之前，该党2028年初选看起来像是副总统万斯（如果他如预期参选）相对轻松的加冕仪式。现在出现了一股初生的力量，旨在打击万斯并推举其他可能的对手。
Why it matters: The political posturing of the two Florida Republicans — or the efforts to draft either for 2028 — underscores the sudden volatility of the way-too-early GOP preprimary campaign to succeed President Trump • Before Tuesday's midterm Republican wipeout, the party's 2028 primary looked like a relatively easy coronation for Vice President Vance (if he runs, as expected). Now there's a nascent movement to kneecap Vance and promote other possible opponents.
聚焦：作为特朗普的大本营，佛罗里达州注定会成为话题的中心。但有两点将佛罗里达州与其他州区分开来：
Zoom in: As Trump's home base, Florida was bound to take center stage in the conversation. But two things distinguish Florida from other states:
- 德桑蒂斯和鲁比奥拥有植根于各自过往总统竞选活动的全国知名度，分别是2024年和2016年。
• DeSantis and Rubio have national profiles rooted in their own prior presidential campaigns, in 2024 and 20216, respectively.
- 佛罗里达州是全国性“蓝色浪潮”未能攻克的唯一“红墙”州份，德桑蒂斯自周二以来一直乐于反复强调这一点。
• Florida was the lone red-wall state that the national blue wave couldn't top, which DeSantis has been happy to emphasize repeatedly since Tuesday.
- “鳄鱼人正在骚动，”一位拥有丰富佛罗里达州经验的全国共和党顾问说道，指的是阳光州的官方爬行动物。
• "The alligator people are stirring," said one national Republican consultant with extensive Florida experience, referring to the Sunshine State's official reptile.
在政治前途和风格方面，德桑蒂斯和鲁比奥的差异巨大。德桑蒂斯渴望上进。鲁比奥则不然。
The differences between DeSantis and Rubio are vast when it comes to their political futures and styles. DeSantis is hungry. Rubio isn't.
- 德桑蒂斯将于1月卸任州长，正在寻找工作。他尚未正式决定是否竞选总统——但他通过一场媒体狂轰滥炸式宣传引发了猜测，始于大选日接受斯蒂芬·A·史密斯播客节目的采访。
• DeSantis terms-out of the governor's office in January and is looking for work. He hasn't made an official decision on whether to run for president — but he has stoked speculation with a media blitz that began with an Election Day appearance on Stephen A. Smith's podcast.
- 鲁比奥一再表示，他计划留在特朗普政府任职，直到2029年1月任期结束。他还在5月表示不会与万斯竞争，且至今未公开改变立场。
• Rubio repeatedly has said he plans to stay put in the Trump administration and serve out the rest of his term, until January 2029. He also said in May that he wouldn't run against Vance, and hasn't changed his position publicly.
耐人寻味的是：在白宫周二晚间那场沉闷的选举观摩聚会上，鲁比奥的手机“响个不停”，支持者们敦促他重新考虑竞选总统，一位知情人士透露了现场情况。
The intrigue: During the somber election watch party at the White House on Tuesday night, Rubio's phone "blew up" with supporters urging him to reconsider running for president, according to a source familiar with the scene.
- “当时有一种‘我们输了拉美裔选票，你能把它赢回来’之类的感觉，”该知情人士说。“对一些人来说，鲁比奥似乎第一次考虑这个想法。或者说他没有足够快地否决它。”
• "There was this sense of 'We lost the Latino vote, you can get it back, etc.,'" said the source. "To some people, Rubio seemed to entertain the idea for the first time. Or he didn't shut it down fast enough."
- 两天后，两家媒体报道称鲁比奥正积极考虑辞职，为竞选总统铺路。鲁比奥向《纽约时报》予以否认，鲁比奥的多位老熟人告诉Axios网站，该报道纯属捏造。
• Two days later, two publications reported that Rubio was actively considering resigning to lay the groundwork to run for president. Rubio denied it to the New York Times, and longtime associates of Rubio's told Axios that the reporting was bogus.
- “现在如果万斯不参选，或者总统让他退出以便马可参选，他会参选吗？也许会。我看不出这种可能。但也许吧，”一位内部人士说。
• "Now if Vance doesn't run or if POTUS tells him to step aside so Marco can run, does he? Maybe. I don't see that.
就在那同一个晚上，万斯收到一位支持者的反馈，说他不应该参选。据《华尔街日报》报道，一些共和党捐赠者表示他们将支持德桑蒂斯。
But maybe," said one insider. That same night, Vance got feedback from one supporter who said he shouldn't run. And some GOP donors said they would back DeSantis, according to The Wall Street Journal.
后续看点：关于德桑蒂斯是否在考虑参选，毫无争议。他确实在考虑。
What's next: There's no debate about whether DeSantis is considering a bid. He is.
- 德桑蒂斯选后接受CNN杰克·塔珀采访，显示他从2024年总统竞选中吸取了教训：接受更多播客和电视采访、赢取免费媒体曝光至关重要。
• DeSantis's postelection appearance on CNN with Jake Tapper was a sign he learned a lesson from his 2024 presidential campaign: Earning free media by sitting for more podcast and TV interviews is crucial.
- 当被问及是否计划再次参选时，德桑蒂斯不予置评。
• Asked whether he plans to run again, DeSantis wouldn't say.
- 但他强调说：“我没有计划任何事情，因为我认为这是一个非常不确定的时期。但昨晚应该给我们党敲响警钟。”
• But he emphasized that "I haven't planned anything because I just think this is a very uncertain time. But last night should be a wakeup call for our party."
- “我们真的被打得落花流水，”德桑蒂斯补充道。“佛罗里达州算是最后一个还站得住的了。”
• "We really got blasted into oblivion," DeSantis added. "And Florida is kind of the last one standing."