字号·· | 护眼
半岛电视台

民主党赢得国会席位可能会增强乌克兰对俄谈判的筹码Democrats’ congressional win could strengthen Ukraine’s hand against Russia

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

一名男子走过乌克兰基辅市中心的一处被缴获的俄罗斯军事装备露天展览,2026年11月6日,正值俄罗斯持续入侵之际 [Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA]A person walks past an open-air exhibition of seized Russian military machinery in downtown Kyiv, Ukraine, 06 November 2026, amid the ongoing Russian invasion [Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA]

基里洛是一名来自乌克兰东部的受伤无人机技术员,他不太关心美国中期选举的结果。

Kyrylo, a wounded drone technician from eastern Ukraine, does not care much about the results of midterm elections in the United States.

周二的投票为民主党带来了胜利的“蓝色浪潮”,民主党将在新一届国会中控制两院,并对总统唐纳德·特朗普形成制衡。但这对于乌克兰军人来说意义不大。

Tuesday’s vote brought on a “blue wave” of victories for the Democratic Party, which will control both houses in the new Congress and provide a check on President Donald Trump. But it means little to the Ukrainian servicemen.

现年37岁的基里洛说:“我们已经学会了如何不依赖美国。”此前,一枚俄罗斯滑翔炸弹击中了他在基辅的一处掩体,导致他严重脑震荡,目前正在医院康复。根据战时协议,他要求半岛电视台隐去他的姓氏。

“We already learned how not to depend on America,” said the 37-year-old, who is recovering from a heavy contusion in a Kyiv hospital after a Russian glide bomb hit his bunker. He asked Al Jazeera to withhold his last name in accordance with wartime protocol. “Trump has let us down so many times, sold us to Russia and we’re still standing and kicking Russian [butt],” he said.

他说:“特朗普已经让我们失望了无数次,把我们出卖给俄罗斯,而我们依然挺立,把俄罗斯(屁股)打得落花流水。我们不再依赖美国的资金和武器。现在全世界都想买我们的无人机。”乌克兰军人走在爱国者防空系统发射器旁边,地点在乌克兰未公开处,2024年8月4日[瓦连京·奥吉连科/路透社]在特朗普领导下,华盛顿逐渐停止承担乌克兰的大部分战时账单。虽然从2022年俄罗斯全面入侵到2024年底,财政和军事援助金额接近2000亿美元,但自2025年以来,美国的援助已减缓至涓涓细流。

“We no longer depend on American money and weaponry. The whole world wants to buy our drones now.”Ukrainian service members walk next to a launcher of a Patriot air defence system in an undisclosed location, Ukraine, August 4, 2024 [Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters] Under Trump, Washington gradually stopped footing much of Ukraine’s wartime bills. While the amount of financial and military aid nearly reached $200bn from Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion to late 2024, since 2025, the US assistance has slowed to a trickle.

从2025年10月到3月,作为可追溯至美国总统乔·拜登政府时期的“遗留渠道”的一部分,基辅仅收到了82亿美元的军事援助。当这些物资供应结束时,这些协议还将耗费另外13亿美元。

From October 2025 to March, Kyiv received a mere $8.2bn in military aid as part of “legacy pipelines” dating back to US President Joe Biden’s administration. The deals will have cost another $13bn when the supplies are over.

乌克兰军人走在爱国者防空系统发射装置旁边,地点位于乌克兰的一处保密地点,2024年8月4日 [Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters]Ukrainian service members walk next to a launcher of a Patriot air defence system in an undisclosed location, Ukraine, August 4, 2024 [Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters]

根据德国智库基尔研究所的数据,尽管欧洲承担了大部分财政负担,仅在2025年就拿出了83亿美元,但近三分之一的武器来自美国公司。

Even though Europe took over most of the financial weight, coughing up $83bn in 2025 alone, almost a third of all weaponry comes from US companies, according to the Kiel Institute, a German think tank.

部分援助可能会恢复,民主党人已承诺仔细审查特朗普与俄罗斯的联系,并对特朗普家族内部涉嫌腐败的问题展开全面调查。

Some aid may be restored, and the Democrats have pledged to scrutinise Trump’s ties to Russia and conduct sweeping investigations focused on alleged corruption within the Trump family.

调查将涵盖他们与俄罗斯政客、情报机构和寡头的关系,例如乌马尔·克列姆列夫,据报道他在5月为小唐纳德·特朗普在巴哈马的婚礼庆祝活动支付了数十万美元。

The investigations will include their ties to Russian politicians, intelligence and oligarchs, such as Umar Kremlev, who reportedly paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for Donald Trump Jr’s wedding celebrations in the Bahamas in May.

民主党人已经表明,一旦他们在1月3日掌控国会,已准备好发出传票并强制披露行政部门记录,包括与乌克兰相关的记录。

The Democrats have already signalled their readiness to issue subpoenas and force the disclosure of executive branch records, including the ones related to Ukraine, once they take control of Congress on January 3.

“乌克兰的立场可能会变得更强,”总部位于基辅的“彭塔”智库负责人弗拉基米尔·费先科对半岛电视台表示。“但我们需要保持两党支持。”

“Ukraine’s positions may become stronger,” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, told Al Jazeera. “But we need to keep bipartisan support.”

乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基对中期选举结果表示:“我们拥有两党支持。”他说,他“感谢共和党人,但民主党人非常明确地表达了对乌克兰的支持以及向其提供援助。” 失去支持乌克兰的共和党人 但从美国国会获得更多支持并非易事,因为几位支持乌克兰的共和党人失去了席位。

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said of the midterm results, “We have bipartisan support.”He said he was “thankful to the Republicans, but Democrats very clearly state their support of Ukraine and providing aid to it.”Loss of Ukraine-supporting Republicans But getting more backing from the US Congress is not going to be easy as several Republicans who supported Ukraine have lost their seats.

这股“蓝色浪潮”让宾夕法尼亚州的布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克落选,他曾共同主持国会乌克兰核心小组,是基辅最坚定的支持者之一。

The “blue wave” unseated Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, who cochaired the Congressional Ukraine Caucus and was one of Kyiv’s staunchest supporters.

其他著名的亲乌克兰共和党人包括内布拉斯加州的唐·培根,他自称“里根主义者”,坚决反对俄罗斯;以及纽约州的迈克·劳勒,他曾投票支持《乌克兰支持法案》。

Other notable pro-Ukrainian Republicans are Don Bacon of Nebraska, a self-described “Reaganite” staunchly opposed to Russia, and Mike Lawler of New York, who voted for the Ukraine Support Act.

与此同时,基辅需要任命一名新的驻华盛顿大使。前副总理奥尔加·斯特凡尼希娜在8月因一项针对其“非法致富”的调查中被解职。

At the same time, Kyiv needs to appoint a new ambassador to Washington. Olha Stefanishyna, a former deputy prime minister, was fired in August during a probe into her “illegal enrichment”.

一名女子站在其岳父母房屋遗址上,该房屋于2026年10月19日在乌克兰第聂伯罗郊区的一场俄罗斯空袭中被摧毁 [路透社] 大使负责与国会打交道,并安排与基辅的联系以及议员们对乌克兰的访问。“这就是为什么首先必须任命一名新大使,”费先科说。

A woman stands at the site of her in-laws’ house destroyed during a Russian air strike on the outskirts of Dnipro, Ukraine October 19, 2026 [Reuters] The ambassador works with Congress and organises contacts with Kyiv and trips by lawmakers to Ukraine. “That’s why first of all a new ambassador has to be appointed,” Fesenko said.

一名女子站在她公婆房屋的废墟旁,该房屋在2026年10月19日俄罗斯对乌克兰第聂伯罗郊区的空袭中被毁 [Reuters]A woman stands at the site of her in-laws’ house destroyed during a Russian air strike on the outskirts of Dnipro, Ukraine October 19, 2026 [Reuters]

分析人士表示,尽管一些民主党支持者敦促本党弹劾特朗普,但基辅将成为失利的一方。

And while some supporters of the Democrats urge their party to impeach Trump, Kyiv would be on the losing side, analysts said.

费森科说:“上帝保佑,千万别让乌克兰因为特朗普第一任期内的负面经历而成为(第三次)弹劾的焦点。”他说:“这让特朗普对乌克兰形成了稳定的负面态度。”特朗普在2019年的首次弹劾案涉及指控其向基辅施压,要求调查拜登以及拜登的儿子亨特,亨特曾担任卷入腐败计划的乌克兰天然气公司布里斯马公司的董事。

“God forbid if Ukraine becomes the focus of a [third] impeachment because of the negative experience during Trump’s first presidency,” Fesenko said. “It made Trump form a stable negative attitude towards Ukraine.”Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 concerned accusations that he pressured Kyiv to investigate Biden and Biden’s son Hunter, who had been on the board of Burisma, a Ukrainian natural gas company implicated in corruption schemes.

民主党人表示,在基辅极需美国武器以继续对抗俄罗斯支持的分离主义分子之际,特朗普冻结了3.9亿美元对乌军事援助,以此作为施压筹码。

The Democrats said Trump froze $390m in military aid to Ukraine as leverage at a time when Kyiv badly needed US arms to continue fighting Russia-backed separatists.

如今,在新国会就职之前,特朗普很可能会向乌克兰施压,迫使其接受与俄罗斯达成快速和平协议。

Now, before the new Congress takes office, Trump is likely to pressure Ukraine to accept a fast-tracked peace deal with Russia.

常驻基辅的分析人士伊加尔·蒂什科维奇对半岛电视台表示:“因为当俄罗斯不愿让步时,解决问题的最快途径——无论是通过休战还是通过冻结战争——只有在(特朗普)逼迫基辅的情况下才有可能实现。”他说:“这就是为什么未来两个月对乌克兰来说将相当复杂。”

“Because when Russia isn’t willing to concede, the fastest way to solve the matter – either through a truce or through freezing the war – is only possible if [Trump] twists Kyiv’s arms,” Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych told Al Jazeera. “That’s why the next two months will be rather complicated for Ukraine,” he said.

蒂什科维奇表示,由于特朗普目前在国会两院均拥有共和党多数席位,他将“试图展示其政策的有效性,以降低与新国会产生对抗的可能性”。

Because Trump at the moment has Republican majorities in both houses, he will “try to show the effectiveness of his policies to decrease the possible level of confrontation with the new Congress”, Tyshkevych said.

新国会将不得不处理一个根源于相关指控的困境,这些指控涉及乌克兰高官涉嫌腐败以及他们据称侵吞美国援助。

The new Congress will have to deal with a dilemma rooted in allegations of corruption involving top Ukrainian officials and their purported embezzlement of US aid.

他说:“一方面,有继续支持乌克兰的政治信念;另一方面,有必要从政治上终结对乌克兰领导人腐败问题的疑问、怀疑和指控。”亲克里姆林宫的声音已经在计算莫斯科可能遭受的损失。

“On the one hand, there’s a political conviction to keep supporting Ukraine and on the other hand the political necessity to put an end to questions, suspicions and accusations of Ukrainian leaders in corruption,” he said. Pro-Kremlin voices are already counting Moscow’s possible losses.

莫斯科政治分析师安德烈·库尔托诺夫在《生意人报》的一篇评论文章中写道:“民主党将加倍努力阻止特朗普与莫斯科建立对话,要求恢复美国对基辅的直接军事援助,坚持恢复跨大西洋在乌克兰问题上的团结,并提议对俄罗斯及其主要贸易伙伴实施新制裁。”

“The Democrats will double down on their efforts to prevent Trump from establishing a dialogue with Moscow, demand the resumption of direct US military aid to Kyiv, insist on the restoration of transatlantic unity on the Ukrainian issue and propose new sanctions against Russia and its main trading partners,” Moscow-based political analyst Andrey Kortunov wrote in an opinion piece for the Kommersant daily.

莫斯科分析师马列克·杜达科夫对《Gazeta.ru》日报表示,民主党“将发起调查,了解他是如何与我们谈判的”。

The Democrats “will initiate investigations into how he negotiates with us”, Moscow-based analyst Malek Dudakov told the Gazeta.ru daily.

俄罗斯外交部驳回了这些担忧,称莫斯科的外交政策“不取决于其他国家政治气压计的波动”。

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed the concerns, saying Moscow’s foreign policies “don’t depend on the fluctuations of the political barometer in other nations”.

与此同时,克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫用赞赏的措辞表示:“特朗普总统继续行使他的职权。我们真诚希望他将继续其缔造和平的努力。”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, spoke in flattering terms, saying, “President Trump continues to exercise his powers. We sincerely hope that he will continue his peacemaking efforts.”

阅读媒体原文 ↗