周二，美国举行了中期选举。美国众议院全部435个席位和参议院100个席位中的35个席位参与了改选。
On Tuesday, the United States held midterm elections. Every one of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives was up for election and 35 of the 100 US Senate seats were on the ballot.
选举结果压倒性地有利于民主党，也就是美国媒体习惯称之为的“蓝队”。这是一场蓝色浪潮，一场蓝色海啸。民主党在众议院至少翻转了40个席位，在参议院翻转了7个席位。这向华盛顿传递了一个明确信号：美国大部分地区对国家前行的方向感到不满。
The result of the elections was overwhelmingly in favour of the Democratic Party, or the blue team, as the US media has taken to referring to them. It was a blue wave. A blue tsunami. Democrats flipped at least 40 House seats and seven Senate seats. It was a clear message to Washington that much of the US is unhappy with the direction the country is headed.
得克萨斯州在全州范围的竞选中已有30多年未曾选出民主党人。民主党在得克萨斯州占据了主导地位。堪萨斯州自1932年以来未曾派出民主党参议员。来年1月第一周，将有一名民主党参议员代表该州。苏珊·柯林斯，参议院拨款委员会实力强劲的共和党主席，也是美国参议院跨党派投票记录最好的共和党人，曾担任缅因州参议员30年。她被投票淘汰了。民主党胜利的深度和广度令许多人震惊。
Texas had not elected a Democrat in a statewide race for more than 30 years. Democrats dominated in Texas. Kansas hadn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Come the first week of January, there will be one representing it. Susan Collins, the powerful Republican chair of the Senate Committee on Appropriations and the most bipartisan voting Republican in the US Senate had been Maine’s senator for 30 years. She was voted out. The depth and breadth of the Democratic victory stunned many.
与伊朗的战争显然产生了影响。这与冲突本身关系不大，主要是战争对普通美国人造成的经济冲击。几乎每个美国人都使用汽车，战争期间汽油价格飞涨。高昂的燃油价格波及了经济的每一个其他领域，因为几乎所有产品，尤其是食品和杂货，都是通过公路系统运输的，这当然意味着汽油和柴油价格增加了它们的成本。
The war with Iran clearly had an impact. It wasn’t the conflict itself nearly as much as the economic impact it has had on the average American. Virtually every American uses an automobile and the price of petrol has skyrocketed during the war. The high fuel prices have impacted every other segment of the economy because nearly every product, especially food and grocery items, is delivered using the roadway system, which, of course, means petrol and diesel prices add to their cost.
民主党控制众议院和参议院将极大地改变未来两年华盛顿的局面。他们将恢复国会的监督职能，并将就无数项违规行为（无论真实还是想象的）调查特朗普及其团队。国会的优先事项将发生变化。弹劾将再次成为常用词汇。如果最高法院出现空缺，总统填补空缺将困难得多。选举的影响是非常真实的。但这具有历史意义吗？一言以蔽之，没有。
The Democrats taking control of both the House and the Senate will dramatically change the next two years in Washington. They will restore the oversight functions of Congress and will investigate Trump and his team for countless violations, real or imagined. Congressional priorities will change. Impeachment will be a word that is commonly used again. If a vacancy occurs on the Supreme Court, the president will have a much more difficult time filling it. The impact of the elections is very real. Is it historic though? In a word, no.
在中期选举中失去席位给在野党其实相当普遍。数十个众议院选区的计票仍在进行，因此最终席位损失可能还会增加，但自第二次世界大战以来，已有至少七次中期选举的席位损失与共和党在2026年迄今经历的相当，甚至更大：1946年、1958年、1966年、1974年、1994年、2010年和2018年，当时唐纳德·特朗普总统所在的党派在其首个中期选举中失去了约40个众议院席位。
Losing seats to the opposition party is actually quite common in the midterms. Dozens of House races are still being counted, so the final tally may yet grow, but since World War II there have been at least seven midterm elections with seat losses comparable to or larger than what the Republicans have experienced so far in 2026: 1946, 1958, 1966, 1974, 1994, 2010 and 2018 when President Donald Trump’s party lost about 40 House seats in his first midterm.
最大的中期选举失利属于贝拉克·奥巴马总统所在的党派，发生在2010年。民主党失去了63个众议院席位和6个参议院席位。随后，在奥巴马第二任期举行的中期选举中，民主党又在联邦参议院失去了9个席位。
The largest midterm loss belongs to President Barack Obama’s party in 2010. The Democrats lost 63 House seats and six seats in the Senate. The Democrats would then lose nine seats in the US Senate in the midterm elections held during Obama’s second term.
比尔·克林顿总统领导下的民主党在1994年也遭遇重创，当时在野的共和党在众议院获得了54个席位，时隔一代人首次夺得多数，并在参议院反转了8个席位。
The Democrats under President Bill Clinton also took a beating in 1994 when the opposition Republicans gained 54 seats in the House, taking a majority for the first time in a generation, and flipping eight seats in the Senate.
当时的评论员公开质疑这是否意味着民主党的终结。损失惨重。然而，这两位总统随后都有效地施政，并找到了与在野党合作的途径。事实上，克林顿与共和党控制的国会合作，通过了有记忆以来首个平衡预算。在那种情况下，政府分裂迫使他们共同合作，给美国民众带来了益处。
The pundits at the time wondered aloud if it was the end of the Democratic Party. The losses were staggering. Both presidents, however, went on to govern effectively and find ways to work with the opposition. In fact, Clinton worked with the Republican Congress to pass the first balanced budget in memory. In that case, the split in government forced them to work together and produced a benefit to the American people.
这并非新鲜事。1946年，杜鲁门总统领导的民主党在众议院失去55个席位、参议院失去12个席位。1958年，艾森豪威尔总统领导的共和党遭遇重创，众议院失去48个席位、参议院失去13个席位。约翰逊、福特和老布什总统也都遭遇惨败。即便是里根总统，在其首次中期选举中也失去了26个众议院席位。
None of this is new. President Harry Truman’s Democrats lost 55 House seats and 12 Senate seats in 1946. President Dwight Eisenhower’s Republicans took it on the chin in 1958, losing 48 House seats and 13 Senate seats. Presidents Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford and George HW Bush all took big losses. Even Ronald Reagan lost 26 House seats in his first midterm elections.
关键在于，美国公众始终要求华盛顿问责。如今仅有14%的美国人认为国会表现良好，基本生活必需品价格持续上涨，美国人要求变革，这不足为奇。无论哪个党派执政，他们一再如此。
The point is the American public has always demanded accountability from Washington. No one should be surprised that at a time when only 14 percent of Americans think Congress is doing a good job and the prices for basic necessities are increasing, Americans demand change. They have done it over and over, regardless of the party in power.
下一个合乎逻辑的问题是：接下来何去何从？特朗普作为共和党领袖的统治结束了吗？他失去影响力了吗？
The next logical question is where do we go from here? Is Trump’s reign as leader of the GOP over? Has he lost his influence?
不会花太多时间去剖析哪里出了问题。特朗普和副总统万斯已承认，伊朗战争及其经济影响是失利的主要原因。这一承认将加速党内愈合，剩余几周共和党仍掌控国会、需共同推进多项议程，也将促进这一进程。
There will not be a great deal of time spent trying to decipher what went wrong. Both Trump and Vice President JD Vance have already acknowledged the war in Iran and its economic effects are the primary reasons for the loss. This acknowledgement will hasten the healing process within the party, as will the need to push through a number of agenda items together in the remaining weeks the Republicans have control of Congress.
根据美国宪法，总统任期限两届，任何总统一旦进入最后两年，便被称为“跛脚鸭”。其影响力虽因职位本身依然巨大，但开始衰退。越接近任期结束，影响力越小，尤其是在国内议程上。许多总统在任期末期将大部分精力花在外交政策上。
Because the US Constitution limits a president to two terms, any time any president enters his final two years, he is known as a lame duck. His influence, while still enormous simply by the reality of the office, begins to wane. The closer it gets to the end of his final term the less influence he has, particularly on the domestic agenda. Many presidents spend the majority of their time near the end of their term on foreign policy.
从1月3日起，民主党将在国会山主导议程。他们将控制每个委员会，实际上控制每一次表决。国会掌握财政大权，因此其影响力巨大，但也别指望特朗普就此出局。
As of January 3, Democrats will set the agenda on Capitol Hill. They will control every committee. They will control virtually every vote. Congress controls the purse strings, so their impact is large, but don’t count Trump out yet.
他的个性以及他直面甚至最棘手冲突的姿态是独一无二的。无论是在商业领域、选举胜负、法庭交锋还是国际事务中，特朗普从不退缩。诚然，这有时会对他不利，但这一特质在与民主党控制的国会博弈时，恐将助他一臂之力。
His personality and his outward embrace of even the most difficult conflicts are unique. Whether in business, in election wins and losses, in courtroom clashes or in international affairs, Trump doesn’t back down. Admittedly this sometimes works to his detriment, but it is a trait that will likely serve him well as he battles with a Democratic-controlled Congress.
总统拥有对国会通过的任何立法的否决权。他可以不予签署，而是予以驳回。如果他驳回法案，众参两院必须各有三分之二议员投票推翻否决，否则该立法不成为法律。
The president has veto authority over any legislation Congress passes. Rather than sign the legislation, he can reject it. If he rejects it, two-thirds of both the House and the Senate must vote to override his veto or else the legislation does not become law.
如果特朗普认为民主党推行的议程过于激进或过于偏左，他将极为频繁地挥动否决大笔。
If Trump feels the Democrats are pushing an agenda too radical or too far left, he will wield the veto pen with great regularity.
理想情况下，双方都明白各自掌握的权力，并能携手合作，正如共和党主导的国会与民主党总统克林顿当年的合作。如果双方能合作，全体美国民众将受益。如果各方固守立场、拒绝妥协，将是漫长且毫无建树的两年。
Ideally the two sides understand the power each holds, and they will work together, as did a Republican-dominated Congress and Democratic President Clinton. If they do work together, all Americans will benefit. If each side digs in and refuses to compromise, it will be a long, unproductive two years.
说到两年，2028年是下一次总统大选，关于各党将提名谁的讨论已经开始——特别是这些中期选举将如何影响万斯或国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥等潜在共和党候选人。
Speaking of two years, 2028 is the next presidential election, and the question of who will be the nominee for each party is already being kicked around – and, in particular, how these midterm elections will impact the potential Republican candidates like Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
残酷的现实是，在政治上两年漫长得仿佛永恒。尽管周二共和党遭遇败局，但任何事情都可能发生。最大的问题是，美国公众在2028年总统大选季是否会感到“特朗普疲劳”。
The stark reality is that two years is an eternity in politics. Anything can happen, despite the Republican defeat on Tuesday. The biggest question is whether the American public will be feeling “Trump fatigue” during the 2028 presidential election season.
如果公众对特朗普团队厌倦了，任何与其政府有关联的人都可能成为“烫手山芋”，在争取党内提名时面临更大挑战。万斯、鲁比奥等直接与他绑定的人物目前拥有最高的知名度，但这反而可能成为包袱而非优势。
If the public has grown weary of team Trump, anyone affiliated with his administration may be tainted goods and face a bigger challenge getting the party’s nomination. Vance, Rubio and others directly tied to him have the greatest name recognition right now, but that may prove to be baggage rather than an advantage.
州长或过往政治人物等局外人可能会激发公众对不同发展方向的热情。名单很长。甚至特朗普也表示，他的政党拥有深厚的后备人才储备，这确实属实。
Outsiders such as a state governor or a past political figure may generate public enthusiasm for a different direction. The list is long. Even Trump has said his party has a deep bench, and it’s true.
在如此动荡的政治时刻、距离大选还有两年的情况下，试图预测2028年的提名人选，虽有趣味，却是徒劳之举。
Trying to predict the 2028 nominee now, in such a volatile political time and with two years to go, while entertaining, is a fool’s errand.
部分媒体已开始为共和党撰写讣告，缘于周二的失利。最终计票结果尚未出炉，而在参议院，已失去的七个席位超过了2010年奥巴马所属政党失去的六个席位。
Some in the media have begun to write the Republican Party’s obituary after Tuesday’s losses. The final numbers are not yet in, and in the Senate, the seven seats already lost exceed the six Obama’s party gave up in 2010.
尽管如此，历史表明，政党和总统均曾从这种规模的挫折中反弹，奥巴马和克林顿皆是如此。特朗普和共和党也能做到。本文的一个版本最早由半岛电视台阿拉伯语频道发表。
Still, history shows that parties and presidents have come back from setbacks of this scale before, as Obama and Clinton both did. Trump and the Republicans can do the same. A version of this piece was first published by Al Jazeera Arabic