俄亥俄州哥伦布市——上周在民主党的中期选举大胜中投下选票时，汤姆·格林（Tom Green）有一份愿望清单：对人工智能数据中心实施更严格的监管、全民医保、更好的就业保障。
COLUMBUS, Ohio—Tom Green had a wish list when he cast his vote in the Democratic Party’s midterm landslide last week: Tougher rules on AI data centers. Universal healthcare.
这位29岁的软件工程师帮助谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）当选参议员、艾米·阿克顿（Amy Acton）当选州长。两位民主党人都承诺阻止耗能巨大的人工智能数据中心推高消费者的电费。布朗旨在限制公用事业费率涨幅并控制处方药价格。阿克顿承诺免除医疗债务并向家庭提供减税优惠。
Better job protections. The 29-year-old software engineer helped elect Sherrod Brown to the Senate and Amy Acton to the governor’s office. Both Democrats pledged to stop energy-hungry AI data centers from raising consumers’ electricity bills. Brown aims to cap utility rate increases and control prescription-drug prices. Acton promises to forgive medical debt and deliver tax breaks to families.
推动民主党在中期选举中获胜的选民传递了一个直白的信息：让经济为我们服务。现在，民主党必须兑现承诺。
The voters who powered the Democrats’ triumph in the midterms delivered a blunt message: Make the economy work for us. Now, Democrats must deliver.
尽管该党即将控制众议院和参议院，但能否做到并无把握。许多诉求超出了立法者的解决能力。国会的主要工具——税收和支出——有限且见效缓慢，而且立法者仍面临特朗普的否决权。
Whether they can isn’t assured, despite the party’s pending control of the House and Senate. Many demands are beyond the reach of lawmakers to fix. The main tools of Congress, taxes and spending, are limited and slow-moving—and lawmakers still face Trump’s veto.
新多数派可能难以阻止伊朗战争，自特朗普总统决定发动袭击以来，这场战争在过去几个月推高了能源价格。汽油价格主要由全球能源市场决定，即使战争结束，油价也可能居高不下。
The new majority may struggle to stop the war in Iran, which has driven up energy prices in the months since President Trump’s decision to attack. Gasoline prices, largely set by global energy markets, could remain high even if the war ends.
在参议院，民主党正准备就废除特朗普对加拿大关税进行投票，这是其全球贸易战的一部分，导致物价上涨。不过他们承认，对总统关税权力实施更严格限制——特朗普已在全球范围内将这一权力推向极限——可能遭到否决，很可能要等到下一届政府才能实现。
In the Senate, Democrats are teeing up votes to repeal Trump’s tariffs on Canada, part of his global trade war that has contributed to rising prices. Yet they acknowledge that stricter limits to presidential tariff authority—which Trump has taken to its limits worldwide—could be vetoed and would likely have to wait for another administration.
密歇根州麦迪逊海茨一块高速公路广告牌提及汽油价格上涨。（Brian Snyder/路透社）满足选民意愿也可能产生意想不到的后果。例如，遏制数据中心和放缓人工智能发展可能会损害美国经济，从而伤害许多想要限制这些行业的选民本身。周四，纳斯达克指数暴跌，原因是投资者担心新的民主党控制的国会将扼杀一直推动市场上涨的人工智能热潮。
A highway billboard in Madison Heights, Mich., referencing higher gas prices. (Brian Snyder/Reuters) Satisfying voter wishes also could have unintended consequences. Curbing data centers and slowing AI, for instance, might dent the U.S. economy, harming many of the same voters who want to rein them in. The Nasdaq plunged on Thursday, driven by investor fears that the new Democratic-controlled Congress will crush the AI boom that has powered the markets.
众议员黛比·丁格尔（民主党-密歇根州）表示，众议院民主党人的首要目标之一是扭转特朗普对医疗补助和《平价医疗法案》补贴的削减，这些削减是去年《一个宏伟美好的法案》的一部分。她正在与同僚议员商讨立法优先事项的排序。“民主党于1月3日接管国会后，我们将推出‘百小时议程’和‘百日议程’，”丁格尔在接受采访时说。
One of the first goals for House Democrats is reversing Trump’s cuts to Medicaid and Affordable Care Act subsidies, which were part of last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill, said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D., Mich.). She is huddling with fellow lawmakers about ranking their legislative priorities. “We’re going to have a 100-hour agenda, and a 100-day agenda” after Democrats take control of Congress on Jan. 3, Dingell said in an interview.
扩大福利虽然能为陷入困境的家庭提供即时救济，但从长远来看可能会刺激通胀，如果不通过增税抵消，还会增加赤字。
Expanding benefits, while providing immediate relief to struggling households, could goose inflation in the longer term, as well as add to the deficit if not offset with higher taxes.
众议员黛比·丁格尔（民主党-密歇根州）于11月2日抵达密歇根州伊普西兰蒂，出席民主党参议员当选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的竞选集会。（朱莉娅·德马里·尼金森/美联社）美国经济的整体实力未能改变美国人的悲观情绪，他们在经济增长中分享甚微。美国不断增长的国民收入中，流向投资者而非雇员的份额更大。劳工部报告称，用于工资和福利支付给工人的经济产出比例，降至80年来有数据记录以来的最低水平。
Rep. Debbie Dingell (D., Mich.) arriving at a Nov. 2 campaign rally for Democratic Senate winner Abdul El-Sayed in Ypsilanti, Mich. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP) The U.S. economy’s overall strength has failed to change the glum mood of Americans who are sharing little in its growth. A larger share of America’s growing national income has gone to investors, not to employees. The Labor Department reported that the proportion of economic output going to workers in salary and benefits is at its smallest share in data that go back 80 years.
借贷成本高企，随着抵押贷款利率徘徊在7%左右，许多潜在购房者被挡在了美国梦中珍贵的一环之外。这些利率深受美联储政策举措影响，美联储通过加息抑制通胀或降息促进就业。目前，通胀而非失业是问题所在，投资者预期利率将进一步上行。
Borrowing costs are high and, with mortgage rates around 7%, many would-be home buyers are locked out of a prized piece of the American dream. Those rates are heavily influenced by moves from the Federal Reserve, which raises rates to tamp down inflation or lowers them to boost employment. Right now, inflation is the problem, not unemployment, and investors expect rates to move higher.
过去三个月，美国平均每月新增就业岗位13.7万个，失业率维持低位。然而，与往年相比，招聘已降温，数百万美国人无法在其专业领域找到全职工作。
Over the past three months, the U.S. has added an average of 137,000 jobs a month, and unemployment has remained low. Yet, hiring has cooled compared with past years, and millions of Americans can’t find full-time employment in their fields.
俄亥俄州选民汤姆·格林。（Jeanne Whalen/WSJ 摄）七个月前，格林从一家银行的软件工程师岗位上被裁员，年薪曾达8.9万美元。投出500份简历后，他仅获得十几次面试机会——这是求职者的普遍抱怨。他搁置了购房计划，因没有医保覆盖，只能自费购买药物。“从我的角度来看，经济似乎并不好，”身为民主党人的格林说。
Ohio voter Tom Green. (Jeanne Whalen/WSJ) Green, the Ohio voter, was laid off from his $89,000-a-year job as a software engineer at a bank seven months ago. After sending out 500 résumés, he has been invited to only a dozen interviews—a common complaint among job seekers. He put his home-buying plans on hold and, without healthcare coverage, pays cash for his medications. “The economy doesn’t seem great, at least from my perspective,” said Green, a Democrat.
“所有东西都涨价了”美国各地的民主党州议员和民选官员，在住房、工资、税收和数据中心开发等政策上，可能比国会同僚拥有更大的施展空间。民主党在至少六个州赢得了州长职位及州议会两院控制权，这些州包括密歇根州、亚利桑那州和内华达州。
‘Everything went up’Democratic state lawmakers and elected officials around the U.S. might have more leeway than their congressional counterparts to set new policies on housing, wages, taxes and data-center development. Democrats won control of the governor’s seat and both houses of the state legislature in at least six states, including Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.
新当选的民主党州长——得克萨斯州的吉娜·伊诺霍萨、俄亥俄州的阿克顿、佐治亚州的凯莎·兰斯·博托姆斯——均以限制数据中心为竞选承诺。
Newly elected Democratic governors Gina Hinojosa in Texas, Acton in Ohio, and Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia all campaigned on restricting data centers.
在密歇根州，乔斯林·本森以降低成本、提高工资和终结腐败为承诺成功竞选州长。本森计划推行5000美元的照护者税收抵免，扩大医疗债务减免，并设立处方药可负担性委员会，赋予其批准涨价的权力。她还表示，希望保障教师最低起薪达到每年6万美元。
In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson successfully ran for governor on promises to lower costs, raise wages and end corruption. Benson plans to pass a $5,000 tax credit for caregivers, expand medical debt relief and establish a prescription-drug affordability board with the authority to approve price increases. Benson also wants to guarantee teachers a minimum starting salary of $60,000 a year, she said.
简单的算术解释了为何可负担性成为中期选举的驱动力。据劳工部数据，受伊朗战争导致汽油价格飙升、关税以及与人工智能繁荣相关的价格飙升推动，截至9月的12个月通胀率为3.7%。截至10月，平均收入增长3.1%。
Simple math explains why affordability became a driving force in the midterm election. Inflation was 3.7% for the 12 months through September, lifted by surging gasoline prices from the Iran war, tariffs and price spikes tied to the AI boom, according to the Labor Department. Through October, average earnings rose 3.1%.
“对政客而言，如果你能让实际工资持续上涨，那就是你通往胜利和成功的道路，”唐·施奈德说。他曾任国会共和党经济顾问，现任投资银行派珀·桑德勒公司职员。他说，相对于收入而言，价格上涨“太快了，快到选民真正关心的东西，比如食品杂货和外出就餐，都承受不起了。”
“For politicians, if you can make real wages rise consistently, that’s your path to victory and success,” said Don Schneider, a former economic adviser to congressional Republicans now at investment bank Piper Sandler. Relative to incomes, he said, prices have been rising “too fast for things that are really important to voters, like groceries and going out to dinner.”
选民在堪萨斯州劳伦斯市一家杂货店投票。（尼克·牛津/彭博社）帮助工人跟上物价上涨有两条路径。民主党讨论过的一条是通过提高最低工资，或让工人更容易组建工会、获得更强议价能力。
Voters casting ballots at a grocery store in Lawrence, Kan. (Nick Oxford/Bloomberg News) There are two paths to help workers keep up with rising prices. One that Democrats have discussed is through higher minimum wages or making it easier for workers to form unions and gain more bargaining power.
另一条路径是降低通胀，让物价上涨少吞噬一些家庭工资单。除了民主党为废除关税、结束伊朗战争所做的努力，一些经济学家主张缩减联邦预算赤字以降低通胀。
The other path is lowering inflation so that price increases steal less of household paychecks. Beyond Democrats’ efforts to repeal tariffs and end the war in Iran, some economists argue for shrinking the federal budget deficit to lower inflation.
在俄亥俄州特拉华县，两位朋友金·贝尔和蒂芙尼·韦泽说，她们支持民主党，部分原因是希望民主党能终结关税，帮助降低食品杂货和其他商品的成本。51岁的韦泽说，她今年夏天放弃了翻新前门廊的计划，因为“木材和所有东西的成本光是比去年夏天就涨了这么多。”
In Delaware County, Ohio, two friends, Kim Bell and Tiffany Weiser, said they backed Democrats partly in hopes they would end tariffs and help bring down the cost of groceries and other goods. Weiser, 51, said she gave up on renovating her front porch this summer because “the cost of wood and everything went up so much just from last summer.”
曾任前总统乔·拜登高级经济顾问的贾里德·伯恩斯坦说，民主党通过立法的筹码现在增加了，因为在中期选举惨败中幸存下来的共和党人很可能更愿意与多数党合作。
Democrats’ leverage to pass legislation is now increased because Republican survivors of the midterm rout will likely be more open to working with the majority, said Jared Bernstein, who was a top economic adviser to former President Joe Biden.
“我认为，这场选举一个可能产生深远影响的结果，是共和党人认识到把前途押在特朗普身上是个必输的策略，”伯恩斯坦说。“如果真是这样，我或许能看到共和党人在民生负担问题上与民主党联手。”
“I think a potentially impactful outcome of this election is the recognition by Republicans that tying your future to Trump is a losing strategy,” Bernstein said. “If that’s the case, I could perhaps see Republicans joining with Democrats on affordability issues.”
民主党参议员当选人谢罗德·布朗在俄亥俄州哥伦布市的竞选庆功会上庆祝。（布莱恩·凯泽/《华尔街日报》）曾在特朗普政府去年担任财政部副部长的迈克尔·福克纳表示，国会目前正在推进的一项旨在简化能源项目和其他基础设施许可流程的立法，显示两党能在经济措施上找到一些共同点。该法案的最新版本可能通过增加供应来缓解能源价格，代表了参议院共和党人和民主党人达成的一项协议。
Democrat Senate winner Sherrod Brown celebrating at an election party in Columbus, Ohio. (Brian Kaiser for WSJ) Michael Faulkender, who served as deputy Treasury secretary in the Trump administration last year, said that legislation now moving through Congress to streamline the permitting process for energy projects and other infrastructure shows the two parties can find some common ground on economic measures. The latest version of the bill, which could ease energy prices by boosting supply, represents a deal between Senate Republicans and Democrats.
“如果你看看是谁在谈判许可改革，会发现意识形态跨度相当大，”福克纳说。“这表明我们能够达成妥协。”高风险即使拥有强有力的授权，国会民主党人快速让美国变得更负担得起的能力也将受限。
“If you look at who negotiated the permitting reform, there’s quite a bit of ideological breadth,” Faulkender said. “It shows we can come to a compromise.”High stakes Even with a strong mandate, Democrats in Congress will have limited power to quickly make America more affordable.
对抗通胀最有力的工具掌握在美联储决策者手中，他们在9月将基准利率上调了四分之一个百分点，推高了借贷成本。许多投资者预计下个月将再次加息，尽管他们最近已减少了对明年美联储可能将利率提高到多高的押注。
The most powerful tool for fighting inflation belongs to Fed policymakers, who raised their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in September, pushing up borrowing costs. Many investors expect another increase next month, although they have recently pared back their bets on how high the Fed might bring rates next year.
现年61岁、居住在俄亥俄州特拉华县的大卫·康克林多年来一直是民主党人，但在2024年总统大选中投给了一位独立候选人，因为他不喜欢特朗普，也不喜欢前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯。
David Conklin, a 61-year-old in Delaware County, Ohio, was a Democrat for many years but voted for an independent candidate during the 2024 presidential election because he didn’t like Trump or former Vice President Kamala Harris.
大卫·康克林在俄亥俄州桑伯里的投票站外。（Brian Kaiser/WSJ摄）在中期选举中，他又转投民主党，为布朗和阿克顿投票。他说，部分动机源于布朗承诺遏制数据中心建设。他还希望民主党结束在伊朗的战争，但他不确定他们能否做到。
David Conklin outside his polling place in Sunbury, Ohio. (Brian Kaiser for WSJ) In the midterm election, he swung back to the Democrats to vote for Brown and Acton. He said he was motivated partly by Brown’s pledge to curb data-center construction. He also wants Democrats to end the war in Iran, but he isn’t sure they can.
民主党明年将控制国会两院，但特朗普可以否决立法。大多数法案需要60票才能克服参议院的阻挠议事——一种用于拖延立法的策略。民主党目前已赢得54个参议院席位，另外两个席位的选票仍在统计中。
Democrats will control both chambers next year, but Trump can veto legislation. Most bills require 60 votes to overcome a Senate filibuster, a tactic used to stall legislation. Democrats have so far won 54 Senate seats, and votes are still being tabulated for two others.
“我觉得要推动实质性改变真的很难，”曾在奥巴马和拜登政府担任高级经济职务、现任 Evercore ISI 策略师的 Sarah Bianchi 说。“他们没有 60 票，而且有总统在，他不会对所有法案都签字。即使没有这些限制，让东西变得更实惠其实真的很难。”
“I think it’s going to be really tough to move the needle,” said Sarah Bianchi, a strategist at Evercore ISI who held senior economic roles in the Obama and Biden administrations. “They don’t have 60 votes, and they have the president, who’s not going to sign everything. Even if those weren’t constraints, making things more affordable is actually really hard.”
在爱荷华州达文波特地区从事商业物业维修工作的 47 岁手艺工 Matt Molyneux 不喜欢共和党对社会安全网的削减。他说，自己的财务状况现在不错。过去他曾领取食品券，明白那有多重要。这促使他在 2020 年以来首次走出家门去投票。
Matt Molyneux, a 47-year-old handyman for commercial properties in the Davenport, Iowa, area, didn’t like cuts that Republicans made to the social safety net. Molyneux’s finances are in good shape now, he said. In the past, he said, he received food stamps and understands how important they are. That is what prompted him to vote after sitting out elections since 2020.
“我曾经也是那些人中的一员，曾经需要那种帮助，”他说。“我想确保这种帮助能继续下去。”
“I was one of those people, at one point in time, and I needed that help,” he said. “I want to make sure that keeps going.”
Molyneux 投票支持的民主党人之一 Christina Bohannan 在接受采访时表示，扭转这些削减应是新一届国会的优先事项。她说，在竞选众议员期间，选民向她倾诉了生活成本的担忧。
Christina Bohannan, one of the Democrats Molyneux voted for, said in an interview that reversing those cuts should be a priority for the new Congress. Voters shared their cost-of-living worries during her House campaign, she said.
“医疗补助削减将可能对爱荷华州的医院造成灾难性影响，”Bohannan 说，她预计一些共和党议员会支持恢复资金。
“The Medicaid cuts are going to have potentially catastrophic effects on our hospitals here in Iowa,” said Bohannan, who expects some Republican lawmakers to support restoring the funds.
一些新当选的民主党人深知，如果兑现不了承诺，他们会多快丢掉职位。
Some newly elected Democrats know firsthand how quickly they can lose their posts if they don’t deliver on their promises.
2022 年，共和党人 Jen Kiggans 告诉弗吉尼亚州东南部选民，她有对抗通胀、降低生活成本的计划。选民那一年把她送进国会，解雇了已连任两届的民主党众议员 Elaine Luria。周二，选民又把原来的工作还给了 Luria。
In 2022, Republican Jen Kiggans told voters in southeastern Virginia that she had a plan to fight inflation and lower the cost of living. They voted her into office that year and fired two-term Rep. Elaine Luria, a Democrat. On Tuesday, voters gave Luria her old job back.
经历四届国会竞选的过山车般起伏，让 Luria 更清楚地认识到赌注有多大，尤其是涉及民生钱袋子的问题时。
That roller-coaster ride through four congressional campaigns has sharpened Luria’s understanding of the stakes, especially when it comes to pocketbook issues.
民主党众议员赢家 Elaine Luria 在弗吉尼亚海滩选举之夜与一名支持者自拍合影。（Peter Casey / 《弗吉尼亚领航报》 / 美联社）“共和党人违背了他们的承诺，”卢里亚上周获胜后说。“我从一个人手中夺回了我的席位，此人去国会时许下许多承诺，但却支持让人们的生活变得更加艰难的政策。”
Democratic House winner Elaine Luria taking a selfie with a supporter on election night in Virginia Beach, Va. (Peter Casey/The Virginian-Pilot/AP) “Republicans broke their promises,” Luria said after her win last week. “I took back my seat from someone who went to Congress promising a lot of things, but who backed policies that made people’s lives a lot harder.”
俄亥俄州选民格林说，他正指望新当选的密歇根州民主党参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德支持全民医保，即单一支付者的全国医疗保险体系。共和党人对此坚决反对。
Green, the Ohio voter, said he was counting on promises by Abdul El-Sayed, the newly elected Democratic senator from Michigan, to back Medicare for All, a single-payer national health insurance system. Republicans are dead-set against it.
“必须有证据表明正在进行改变，或者正在尝试改变，”格林说。他补充道：“否则，我担心选民会立刻再次向右转。”
“There has to be evidence that changes are being made or attempts at changes are being made,” Green said. Otherwise, he added, “I’m afraid the electorate will swing right back.”