美国总统唐纳德·特朗普迄今为止给出了最明确的迹象，表明加强外交努力可能避免与伊朗爆发另一轮大规模冲突，这发生在其所在政党在中期选举中惨败之后。
US President Donald Trump has offered his clearest indication yet that intensified diplomacy could avert another major round of fighting with Iran, in the wake of his party’s disastrous midterm election results.
特朗普周日告诉CNN，如果德黑兰在核计划协议和重新开放霍尔木兹海峡方面取得进展，美国重启军事打击的可能性“极低”。他还在CBS节目《60分钟》中表示，他“不寻求”升级战争。
Trump told CNN on Sunday that renewed US military attacks are “highly unlikely” if Tehran makes progress toward an agreement on its nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He also told CBS’ “60 Minutes” that he was “not looking to” escalate the war.
伊朗和美国一直在悄悄谈判一项敏感协议，该协议可能避免全面战争卷土重来，并为更广泛的对话打开大门。
Iran and the United States have quietly been negotiating a sensitive agreement that could avert a return to all-out war and open the door to broader talks.
但华盛顿正在给达成协议的希望降温，国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周日表示，他“不会说我们即将取得突破。”特朗普也明确表示，军事选项仍摆在桌面上。
But hopes of a deal are being tempered by Washington, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying Sunday that he “wouldn’t say we’re on the verge of a breakthrough.”Trump has also made clear the military option remains on the table.
双方及作为调解人的卡塔尔，即使在周二中期选举后外交活动加速，也极少透露谈判细节。
Both sides and Qatar, which is mediating, have revealed little about the discussions even as diplomatic activity has accelerated since Tuesday’s midterms.
共和党在选举中的失利为谈判增添了另一个维度，副总统JD·万斯事后表示，战争是共和党失利的原因之一。
The Republican losses in the elections have added another dimension to the negotiations, with Vice President JD Vance saying aftewards that the war was among the reasons Republicans lost.
特朗普在《60分钟》节目中表示，他不反对万斯的评估，承认选民“不喜欢这场战争”。但他强烈为攻击伊朗的决定辩护，称如果他必须重新做决定，他的回答将是“毫不犹豫地是的。”与此同时，伊朗试图利用选举结果来强化其谈判立场。“美国选民已做出选择。轮到白宫做出自己的选择了，”外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐周日表示。
Trump told “60 Minutes” that he did not disagree with Vance’s assessment, acknowledging that voters “didn’t like the war.”But he strongly defended the decision to attack Iran, saying that if he had to make the decision again, his answer would be “an emphatic yes.”Iran, meanwhile, has sought to use the election results to press its negotiating position. “American voters have made their choice. Time for the White House to make its own,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday.
特朗普继续对美国军事地位表现出信心，而伊朗一再威胁如果再次遭到袭击将在地理上扩大战争范围。双方都有几项关键诉求，在书面上对对方而言均属不可接受。特朗普寻求消除伊朗的核计划，而德黑兰将其视为国家主权问题。
Trump continues to project confidence about the US military position, while Iran has repeatedly threatened to expand the war geographically if it is attacked again. Both sides have several key demands that are on paper non-starters to the other. Trump seeks to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran sees as a matter of national sovereignty.
公开场合，伊朗正在摆姿态，坚称除非满足七项先决条件——包括结束“所有战线”上的战争和解除海上封锁——否则不会就核计划与华盛顿谈判，也不会重新开放至关重要的霍尔木兹海峡。具体细节尚未公开。
Publicly, Iran is posturing, insisting it will not negotiate with Washington over the program or reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz unless seven preconditions are met —including ending the war on “all fronts” and lifting a maritime blockade. The specifics are yet to be made public.
数百公斤浓缩铀——制造核武器所需的材料——仍隐藏在伊朗境内某处。德黑兰在与美国的谈判中利用这一储备作为筹码。据报道，华盛顿希望将这些铀稀释或转移至另一国保管。目前不清楚双方在这一点上取得了多大进展。伊朗辩称其核计划用于发电，而非军事目的。
Hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium – the material needed to produce a nuclear weapon – remain hidden somewhere in Iran. Tehran has used this stockpile as leverage in its talks with the US. Reports indicate Washington wants the uranium diluted or transferred to another country for safekeeping. It is unclear how far the two sides have progressed on that point. Iran has contended that its nuclear program is for generating energy and not military purposes.
对伊朗而言，除了不在核计划或霍尔木兹海峡问题上让步外，还有关键的经济目标。
For Iran, aside from not ceding ground on its nuclear program or Hormuz, there are key economic goals.
作为世界最大产油国之一，伊朗在美国制裁下越来越难以在全球市场出售原油。数十亿美元伊朗在外国银行的资产也仍被冻结。华盛顿似乎正在权衡放宽这些限制，此举可能有助于德黑兰缓解其民众在创纪录通胀下承受的严重经济压力。
As one of the world’s largest oil producers, Iran has found it increasingly difficult to sell crude on global markets under US sanctions. Billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in foreign banks also remain frozen. Washington appears to be weighing relief on these restrictions, a move that could help Tehran ease the severe economic strain on its population amid record inflation.
伊朗还要求美国就最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊及其高级军事指挥官在2月战争伊始被美以杀害一事进行赔偿。
Iran also wants compensation from the US for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his top military commanders by the US and Israel at the start of the war in February.
卡塔尔正在两国间斡旋，并传递一份框架文件，华盛顿和德黑兰均在对其进行修改。这一进程已持续数周，可能长达数月，但近日因担心新一轮袭击而加速。
Qatar is mediating between the two sides and circulating a framework document that both Washington and Tehran are amending. The process has been underway for weeks, possibly months, but has intensified in recent days amid fears of fresh strikes.
特朗普预计将于周一在华盛顿会见卡塔尔首相穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒萨尼。到目前为止，双方均未愿在各自诉求上退让。
Trump is expected to meet Qatari Prime Minster Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Washington on Monday. So far neither side has been willing to budge on its demands.
在周日前往巴黎出席七国集团外长会议之前，国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥表示，双方距离达成协议仍很遥远。
Before leaving Sunday for the Group of Seven foreign ministers meeting in Paris, Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the two sides remained far from an agreement.
“目前，谈判并没有取得多大成效，因为伊朗的要求不仅不可接受，而且在某些情况下简直荒唐可笑、离谱至极，完全不切实际。”在连续多轮公开冲突之后，德黑兰对华盛顿的信任几乎荡然无存。伊朗并未忘记，冲突爆发时正值与美国的核谈判进行之际。
“Right now, it hasn’t been very productive because the Iranian demands are simply not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic.”After successive rounds of open conflict, Tehran’s trust in Washington has almost vanished. Iran has not forgotten that the conflict began while nuclear talks with the US were underway.
伊朗担心，放弃任何筹码都可能招致美国和以色列再次发动袭击，使其处于暴露无遗、缺乏有效谈判工具的境地。如果伊朗在开放霍尔木兹海峡并放弃对浓缩铀的控制后遭到袭击，将处于更加暴露和更弱势的谈判地位。
Iran is concerned that relinquishing any leverage could invite the US and Israel to strike again, leaving it exposed and without effective negotiating tools. If Iran is attacked after opening the Strait of Hormuz and relinquishing control over the enriched uranium, it would be left even more exposed and in a weaker negotiating position.
特朗普正在平衡与阿拉伯伙伴和以色列的关系——双方都将伊斯兰共和国视为威胁——如果他在未从伊朗获得重大让步的情况下退出战争，将面临审视。德黑兰也希望保护其在黎巴嫩、伊拉克和也门的地区代理人和盟友。这些民兵组织曾代表伊斯兰共和国在地区作战，效忠德黑兰，但在过去三年中面临生存压力。
Trump is balancing his ties with Arab partners and Israel – both of which view the Islamic Republic as a threat – and faces scrutiny if he walks away from the war without a major concession from Iran. Tehran also wants to protect its regional proxies and allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Those militias have fought on behalf of the Islamic Republic regionally and are loyal to Tehran, but have come under existential pressure over the past three years.
9月，伊朗在也门的盟友胡塞武装发动闪电攻势，攻占红海另一关键海上咽喉——曼德海峡，使德黑兰获得对另一条水道的潜在影响力。此后，胡塞武装加大了对沙特阿拉伯的袭击，以回应利雅得向也门政府提供军事支持。
In September, Iran’s ally in Yemen, the Houthi rebels, launched a lighting offensive capturing another key maritime chokepoint on the Red Sea – Bab Al Mandeb – and giving Tehran potential influence over another waterway. The Houthis have since ramped up attacks on Saudi Arabia in response to Riyadh giving the Yemeni government military support.
美国希望伊朗不具备制造核武器的能力，包括可能使其具备这种能力的先进设备。
The US wants Iran not to have capabilities to build a nuclear weapon, including advanced equipment that could allow it to do so.
伊朗的阿拉伯邻国对任何会让德黑兰获得过多权力并巩固其渴望霸权的协议存在分歧。伊朗想要管理霍尔木兹海峡，这一海上走廊是富裕阿拉伯国家出口大部分石油和天然气的通道。控制该水道将使德黑兰对进出该地区的事物拥有决定性影响力。这也将违背美国的要求，美国希望看到开放的水道，且不愿巩固伊朗从战争中获得的关键成果之一。
Iran’s Arab neighbors are divided over any agreement that would hand Tehran too much power and cement its desired hegemony. Iran wants to administer the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime corridor through which wealthy Arab states export most of their oil and gas. Control of the waterway would give Tehran decisive influence over what enters and leaves the region. This too would go against the demands of the US, which wants to see open waterways and would be loath to cement one of Iran’s key gains from the war.
双方发生过一些袭击，但都予以淡化处理，这或许表明双方都不想让谈判脱轨。
There have been some attacks but both sides have played them down, a sign perhaps that neither wants to derail talks.
一些媒体报道称，双方谈判已更接近达成协议。《纽约时报》指出，伊朗愿意重新参与核谈判。
Some outlets report that talks between the two sides have moved closer to agreement. The New York Times has indicated that Iran is willing to re-engage in nuclear negotiations.
目前尚无独立确认，但伊朗在其核计划上作出任何让步，甚至表现出愿意讨论该议题，都将被视为突破。
There has been no independent confirmation but any concessions from Iran on its nuclear program, or even willingness to discuss the topic, would be considered a breakthrough.
然而，尽管有进展的报道，全面战争的风险依然真实存在。美国在中东仍拥有庞大的军事存在，可在特朗普下令下发动大规模攻击。载运石油和天然气穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船只持续遭到伊朗袭击。
Yet, despite reports of progress, the risk of an all-out war remains real. The US still has a vast military presence in the Middle East that could launch a major assault on Trump’s orders. Vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz with oil and gas continue to come under Iranian attack.
美国悬赏高达2000万美元征集伊朗核计划情报，并成立特别工作组，旨在阻止德黑兰利用陆路运输先进武器和其他物资——这些迹象表明华盛顿正在加大施压力度，而非缓和局势。
The US is offering a reward of up to $20 million for information on Iran’s nuclear program and has launched a task force aimed at blocking Tehran from using land routes to move advanced weapons and other materials – signs that Washington is intensifying pressure rather than easing it.
与此同时，认为德黑兰已在与美国的战争中取得胜利的伊朗强硬派，正抓住特朗普在中期选举中失利的契机，要求他为退出冲突支付更高代价。若参与谈判的较具改革倾向的伊朗领导人达成协议，他们在国内可能面临反对。
Meanwhile, Iranian hardliners who believe Tehran has already emerged victorious in its war with the US are seizing on Trump’s midterm losses to demand that he pay a steeper price for an exit from the conflict. Should a deal be reached by the more reformist-minded Iranian leaders involved in talks they could face opposition at home.
过去几周，伊朗军方指挥官加大了警告力度，声称伊朗拥有能够打击更多目标、造成比以往更大破坏的武器装备。
Over the past weeks, Iranian military commanders have stepped up their warnings claiming Iran possesses weaponry capable of striking more targets and inflicting even greater damage than before.
因此，即使特朗普愿意达成协议，伊朗是否准备好接受，目前远未明朗。
So, even if Trump is willing to reach deal, it is far from clear if Iran is ready to accept.