受能源成本上升推动，中国10月份出厂价格以四年多来最快速度上涨，与此同时，消费通胀则有所回落。
China’s factory-gate prices rose at the fastest pace in more than four years in October on higher energy costs, even as consumer inflation cooled.
统计局于周一表示，生产者价格指数从9月份的5%升至5.7%。这一数据超过了中国金融数据服务商万得（Wind）调查的经济学家5.4%的预期。消费通胀从0.9%放缓至0.7%，未达到0.8%的预测。
The producer price index rose to 5.7 per cent from 5 per cent in September, the statistics bureau said on Monday. That surpassed the 5.4 per cent expectation among economists polled by Chinese financial data provider Wind. Consumer inflation eased to 0.7 per cent from 0.9 per cent, missing the 0.8 per cent forecast.
中国国家统计局高级统计师董莉娟（音）表示，生产者价格连续第八个月上涨，反映出10月份油价飙升了约70%，这是由美国和以色列对伊朗的打击以及随后霍尔木兹海峡的中断所刺激的。用电需求增加和入冬前的备货也推高了成本，而人工智能热潮则推高了原材料和工业设备的价格。
The eighth straight monthly increase in producer prices reflects a surge in October oil prices of about 70 per cent, spurred by US and Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Increased power demand and stocking up ahead of winter also boosted costs, while the artificial intelligence boom drove up prices for raw materials and industrial equipment, according to Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
自10月底以来，油价已经大跌，布伦特原油下跌了21%，原因是有猜测认为民主党在美国中期选举中的压倒性胜利将促使唐纳德·特朗普总统收回重新升级中东战争的威胁。周日，这位总统对美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）表示，只要会谈取得进展，他“极不可能”下令重新与伊朗开战。
Oil prices have tumbled since the end of October, with Brent crude down 21 per cent, on speculation that the Democrats’ landslide in US midterm elections will prompt President Donald Trump to back down from threats to re-escalate the war in the Middle East. On Sunday, the president told CNN that it was “highly unlikely” he would order a return to war with Iran as long as talks progress.
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特与中国国务院副总理何立峰周五通过视频通话进行了交谈。美国在通话中抱怨中国未能履行协议，中国则对美国的贸易限制表达了“严重关切”。根据美国财政部发表的声明，贝森特向何立峰强调了“中国全面并立即”落实去年在韩国釜山举行的总统峰会上所作承诺的重要性。声明称，贝森特“强调持续进展取决于具体成果”。
The US complained about China failing to fulfil agreements and China expressed “serious concern” about US trade restrictions in a video call on Friday. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted to Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng “the importance of China fully and immediately” implementing commitments made at a presidential summit in Busan, South Korea last year, according to a US Treasury Department statement. Bessent “underscored that continued progress depends on concrete results”, the statement said.
中国商务部表示，在美国实施新的制裁后，美方应“尽快纠正错误做法”。上周，两家中国公司因涉嫌向古巴军方销售产品而遭到美国制裁。美国还禁止中国实验室对在该国销售的设备进行认证。尽管如此，中国还是宣布将对美国商品加征的24%附加关税的豁免期延长两个月。
China’s commerce ministry said that the US should “correct its wrongful practices as soon as possible” following new sanctions. Two Chinese companies were sanctioned by the US last week for alleged sales to Cuba’s military. The US is also banning Chinese laboratories from certifying devices for sale in the country. Still, China announced a two-month extension to a waiver on an additional 24 per cent tariff placed on US goods.
中国内阁国务院表示，在上周全球人工智能（AI）股票遭到抛售之后，将“增强股市内在稳定性”。10月，中国国内股市经历了十年中表现最差的一个月。决策层还承诺加快重大基础设施项目建设，包括推进“六大网络”建设，并为毕业生提供更多就业支持。
The State Council, China’s cabinet, said it will “enhance the inherent stability of the stock market” following a global artificial intelligence (AI) equity rout last week. China’s domestic stocks suffered the worst month in a decade in October. Policymakers also pledged to speed up major infrastructure projects, including the “six networks” drive, and provide additional job support for graduates.
中国旨在复苏长期低迷的房市的最新努力，未能遏制小城市房价的下跌。中国指数研究院的数据显示，10月三四线城市新建住宅价格环比下跌0.1%。二手房价格下跌了0.5%。8月，监管机构将个人住房贷款的最长期限从30年延长至40年。10月1日起，针对首套房购房者的1个百分点房贷补贴正式生效。
China’s latest efforts to revive its long-ailing property market have failed to slow a decline in home prices in smaller cities. October new-home prices dropped by 0.1 per cent versus September in third- and fourth-tier cities, according to China Real Estate Index System (CREIS). Secondary market prices declined by 0.5 per cent. Regulators extended the maximum length for personal mortgages to 40 years from 30 years in August. A 1 percentage-point mortgage subsidy for first-time homebuyers came into effect on October 1.
危险的循环：北京对其以工业和技术为核心的发展战略的意识形态承诺，正在制造一个危险的循环，这很可能导致消费减弱、收入增长放缓，并与世界其他地区产生更大的贸易摩擦。此外，面对这些挑战，中国的经济领导层正通过扩大国家对经济的干预来进行补偿，这种方式进一步破坏了市场力量和民营企业的独立性。
Dangerous cycle: Beijing’s ideological commitment to its industry- and technology-focused development strategy is creating a dangerous cycle that will likely produce weaker consumption, slower income growth, and even greater trade friction with the rest of the world. Moreover, in the face of such challenges, China’s economic leadership is compensating by expanding state intervention in the economy in ways that further undermine market forces and the independence of the private sector.
照此速度，即便领导层最终认识到改变战略的必要性，中国也可能没有财政或金融空间将经济重新平衡转向更具可持续性和多元化的增长模式。（《外交事务》，评论）政策惰性：政治权力的集中以及领导层交接的不确定性，有可能强化政策惰性，这使得对经济体制和政治领导层的改革对于维持中国的增长和管理其全球经济影响至关重要。
At this rate, even if the leadership eventually recognises the need to change strategy, China may not have the fiscal or financial space to rebalance the economy towards a more sustainable and diversified growth model. (Foreign Affairs, opinion) Policy inertia: The concentration of political authority, and the uncertainty surrounding leadership succession, risk reinforcing policy inertia, making reforms to both economic institutions and political leadership essential to sustaining China’s growth and managing its global economic impact. (East Asia Forum) Entrenched deflation: Pervasive weakness in China’s prices – evident in October’s CPI miss – shows deflationary pressures remain entrenched outside the energy and tech sectors.
（《东亚论坛》）根深蒂固的通缩：中国物价普遍疲软——从10月居民消费价格指数（CPI）不及预期中可见一斑——表明通缩压力在能源和科技领域之外依然根深蒂固。出厂价格通胀的意外上行则反映了能源和人工智能相关硬件领域的外部价格冲击。
The upside surprise in factory-gate inflation reflects external price shocks across energy and AI-related hardware.
居家消费：10月疲弱的消费者通胀数据，与上月初为期一周的国庆假期期间疲软的旅游支出相吻合。花旗经济学家称，假期期间人均单次出行支出降至四年低点。（《华尔街日报》）影响消退：“我们认为，中东冲突带来的价格冲击将在未来几个月保持通胀处于高位。但其影响明年应会消退，”凯投宏观中国经济学家阮黄南（Nguyen Hoang Nam，音）表示。他预计生产者价格将重返通缩，此前中东战争爆发前即是这种情况，而消费者通胀2027年将平均为0.4%。
Staying home: October’s weak consumer inflation reading aligns with soft travel spending during China’s week-long National Day holiday at the start of last month. Average expenditure per trip dropped to a four-year low during the holiday, according to Citi economists. (The Wall Street Journal) Fading impact: “We think the price shock from the Middle East conflict will keep inflation elevated over the coming months. But its impact should fade next year,” said Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics. He expected a return to deflation in producer prices, as had been the case before the outbreak of war in the Middle East, while consumer inflation would average 0.4 per cent in 2027.
中国最新通胀数据显示，企业利润率面临更大压力，且将更加努力地提振出口。
China’s latest inflation data signals more pressure on companies’ margins and even more efforts to boost exports.
由于产能过剩和国内需求疲弱，阻碍了制造商将更高的原材料成本转嫁出去，中国制造商陷入挤压。这促使他们涌入暂时能提供更高利润的出口市场。
The country’s manufacturers are caught in a squeeze because excess capacity and weak domestic demand are hindering their ability to pass on higher raw material costs. That’s prompted a rush into export markets that offer higher profits, for now at least.
主要例外是受益于人工智能（AI）热潮的科技公司，它们未面临定价压力。甚至它们现在也可能面临一些疑问，因为广泛反对数据中心助推民主党在美国中期选举中大胜。
The main exception from pricing pressures has been technology companies benefiting from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Even they may now face a few question marks after widespread opposition to data centres fuelled a Democratic landslide in US midterm elections.
看主要数字，中国制造商上月涨价5.7%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅。回溯至1月，当时企业和政策制定者正努力结束三年的通缩，这一数字是他们只能梦想得到的。
Looking at the headline number, China’s manufacturers raised prices by 5.7 per cent last month, the most since June 2022. It’s a reading that companies and policymakers could have only dreamed back in January when they were struggling to end three years of deflation.
不过，这个看似健康的数字在一定程度上具有误导性，因为涨幅高度集中在受益于AI需求或全球能源价格上涨的行业。据统计局数据，仅煤炭开采、石油和天然气开采及燃料加工等九个行业，就贡献了10月生产者通胀约6.1个百分点。
Still, the healthy-looking figure is somewhat misleading because increases were heavily concentrated in industries benefiting from AI demand or higher global energy prices. Just nine sectors, including coal mining, oil and gas extraction and fuel processing, contributed about 6.1 percentage points of October’s producer inflation, according to the statistics bureau.
相比之下，政府跟踪监测的30个行业中有半数遭遇了价格下跌，其中包括酒精饮料、药品和汽车。由于该国长期的房地产低迷重创了建筑需求，黑色金属价格暴跌了6.4%。
By contrast, half of the 30 industries tracked by the government suffered price declines, including alcoholic beverages, drugs and cars. Ferrous metals slumped by 6.4 per cent as the nation’s prolonged real-estate slump hammered construction demand.
如果与投入成本相比，出厂价格的整体上涨看起来也不那么乐观。在燃料和有色金属成本上涨的刺激下，生产者的购进价格较上年同期跃升了7.9%，比销售价格的涨幅高出2.2个百分点。
The headline increase in factory-gate prices also looks less rosy when compared to input costs. Producers’ purchasing prices jumped by 7.9 per cent from a year earlier – 2.2 percentage points more than the increase in selling prices – spurred by rising costs for fuel and non-ferrous metals.
如果中东冲突保持平稳，本月美国中期选举后石油遭遇抛售可能会在成本方面为制造商提供一些缓解。尽管如此，这不太可能在生产过程的另一端——即销售价格方面——对企业提供多少帮助。
Oil’s sell-off this month following the US midterms may provide some relief for manufacturers on the cost side, assuming that conflict in the Middle East remains muted. Still, it’s unlikely to do much to help companies on the other end of the production process, meaning selling prices.
中国10月份的消费价格仅上涨了0.8%，同样，几个行业（特别是燃料和通信设备）发挥了很大的拉动作用。消费品价格仅勉强实现上涨，而食品成本则有所下降。鲜菜价格较上年同期下降了16.9%。
China’s consumer prices rose by just 0.8 per cent in October, and again a few sectors, notably fuel and communication devices, were doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Consumer goods only eked out gains, whereas food costs fell. The price of fresh vegetables was down by 16.9 per cent from a year earlier.
在去年补贴刺激的抢购潮过后，需求崩塌，汽车制造商的价格下跌了1.8%。中国乘用车市场信息联席会的数据显示，10月份国内销量暴跌27.3%，至165万辆，为连续第12个月下降。
Carmakers suffered a 1.8 per cent drop in prices amid a collapse in demand following a subsidy-fuelled buying rush last year. October domestic sales slumped by 27.3 per cent to 1.65 million cars, the 12th straight decline, according to the China Passenger Car Association.
该行业还饱受产能过剩的困扰，这刺激了侵蚀利润的价格战（即所谓的“内卷”）以及向海外市场的蜂拥。根据该行业组织的数据，上个月出口额激增68%，达到9.32万辆。
The industry is also beset with overcapacity, which is spurring profit-eating price wars, known as (involution), and a rush into overseas markets. Exports surged by 68 per cent last month to 932,000, based on the trade group’s data.
在类似的国内压力下，化工和可再生能源设备等其他行业也出现了类似的出口飙升。这些趋势推动中国前九个月的贸易顺差激增了24.8%，有望超过去年1.2万亿美元的纪录。10月份的贸易数据定于周二公布。
Other industries, such as chemicals and renewable-energy equipment, have seen similar export booms amid comparable domestic pressures. Such trends contributed to China’s trade surplus surging by 24.8 per cent in the first nine months of 2026, putting it on track to surpass last year’s US$1.2 trillion record. October trade data is due out on Tuesday.
出口也是经济有望实现全年 4.5% 至 5% 增长目标的主要支撑。固定资产投资处于自由落体状态，疲软的 CPI 数据显示，提振国内消费的努力进展甚微。
Exports are also the main thing keeping the economy on track to hit a full-year growth target of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent. Fixed-asset investments are in free fall and the weak CPI numbers show that efforts to boost domestic consumption are making little progress.
中国面临的风险在于，激增的出口可能不是可持续的利润来源。越来越多的工厂可能只会拖低全球价格，导致制造商从海外销售中获益甚微。
The risk for China is that surging exports may not be a sustainable source of profits. An ever-growing number of factories could just drag down global prices, meaning that manufacturers get little benefit from overseas sales.
与此同时，出口洪流在海外引发抱怨和失业，促使各国政府提高贸易壁垒以保护本地产业。欧盟在上月赢得对中国混合动力电动汽车进口设限后，正在讨论强化其贸易工具箱的方法。政策制定者试图限制车辆涌入，此前大众汽车等本地车企宣布削减数万个岗位。
Simultaneously, the flood of exports is spurring complaints and job losses overseas, prompting governments to raise trade barriers to protect local industries. The European Union is discussing ways of toughening its trade toolkit after winning a cap on Chinese hybrid electric-vehicle imports last month. Policymakers sought to limit the vehicular flood after local carmakers, such as Volkswagen, announced tens of thousands of job cuts.
AI 热潮是今年中国出口增长的关键来源，在中期选举和随后全球科技股崩盘后，如今也面临风险。中国用于满足 AI 基础设施建设需求的半导体及其他设备出口今年几乎翻倍。
The AI boom, a key source of China’s export growth this year, is also now at risk after the midterms and a subsequent collapse in global tech stocks. Chinese exports of semiconductors and other equipment to feed development of AI infrastructure have nearly doubled this year.
出口导向型增长面临的风险日益加大，凸显了将经济重心转向国内消费的重要性。消费者价格涨幅长期低迷，显示出这有多么困难。
The growing risks to export-led growth underline the importance of efforts to rebalance the economy towards domestic consumption. The prolonged run of muted consumer price increases shows how hard this is to do.