领先的新云服务商 CoreWeave 和 Nebius 在过去一个月里市值均缩水约一半，正值两家公司本周即将发布财报之际。
Leading neoclouds CoreWeave and Nebius have both lost about half their value in the past month as they get set for earnings reports this week.
部分 CoreWeave 债券的收益率交易价已升至 16% 以上。
Yields on some CoreWeave bonds are trading above 16%.
上周的中期选举让民主党大获全胜，这增加了外界对人工智能基建扩张步伐的不确定性。
Last week's midterm elections, which produced sweeping victories for Democrats, added to uncertainty about the pace of the AI buildout.
在新云服务商股价腰斩的动荡月份之后，投资者渴望了解该领域的领军企业计划如何应对信贷市场收紧和不利的政治环境。
After a tumultuous month for neoclouds that saw stock prices cut in half, investors are eager to hear how the leading companies in the space plan to navigate a tightening credit market and an unfavorable political environment.
CoreWeave 定于周二发布季度业绩，Nebius 则于周四跟进。两家公司均依赖债务为尖端人工智能系统的采购提供资金，但随着华尔街对 AI 交易的热情降温，它们面临着持怀疑态度的借贷方。
CoreWeave is set to report quarterly results on Tuesday, followed by Nebius on Thursday. Both companies are reliant on debt to fund their purchases of cutting-edge artificial intelligence systems, but they're confronting a skeptical base of lenders as the AI trade sours on Wall Street.
新云服务商在上周四经历了特别惨烈的一天，股价大幅下跌，并拖累纳斯达克指数录得 19 个月来最大单日跌幅。英伟达、超威半导体、美光科技等龙头芯片制造商股价亦重挫，市场担忧愈演愈烈的反 AI 情绪将进一步使基建扩张计划复杂化。
The neoclouds had a particularly rough day last Thursday, suffering dramatic drops and contributing to the Nasdaq's steepest slump in 19 months. Leading chipmakers Nvidia Advanced Micro Devices Micron also plummeted on concern that raging anti-AI sentiment would further complicate buildout plans.
英伟达作为包括 CoreWeave 和 Nebius 在内的多家新云服务商的主要投资者，自身也面临新的动荡：首席执行官黄仁勋周日承认曾与一名商业高管有婚外情，情报机构称该高管是中国间谍。这一消息可能给本已紧张的市场增添更多波动。
Nvidia, a major investor in a number of neoclouds, including CoreWeave and Nebius, faces its own fresh turbulence after CEO Jensen Huang admitted Sunday that he'd had an extramarital affair with a business executive who intelligence agencies say is a Chinese spy. That news could add further volatility to an already nervous market.
上周民主党在佐治亚州、爱荷华州、内华达州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州的州长选举中获胜，且在全美 41 项与数据中心相关的投票议案中，除一项外，选民均予以否决。
Democrats last week won governors' races in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas, and voters rejected data centers in all but one of the 41 related measures on ballots across the country.
CoreWeave 首席执行官迈克·因特拉托发声，试图安抚投资者恐慌。
CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator took to to try to temper investors' fears.
因特拉托写道：“就目前而言，我们预计政治格局的变化不会对 CoreWeave 现有的客户承诺或相关积压订单产生任何影响。”
"We currently don't anticipate any impact to CoreWeave's existing customer commitments or associated backlog as a result of shifts in the political landscape," Intrator wrote.
但市场毫不留情。CoreWeave 部分 2031 年到期债券的收益率飙升至 16% 以上。其五年期信用违约互换（即违约保险）的利差飙升至 1240 个基点以上，较上月激增 50%。
But the market was unrelenting. Yields on some CoreWeave bonds maturing in 2031 jumped above 16%. The spread on its five-year credit default swaps, which are insurance against default, soared above 1,240 basis points, up 50% in the past month.
“我完全同意，尤其是新云服务商将受到最大冲击，”Partners Group 首席投资策略师 Anastasia Amoroso 周五在 CNBC 节目《Closing Bell》中表示。与亚马逊、微软等超大规模云服务商不同，头部新云服务商处于亏损状态，且高度依赖少数客户。
"I do agree completely that neoclouds in particular are going to be the most impacted," Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at Partners Group, told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Friday. Unlike hyperscalers Amazon Microsoft the top neoclouds are unprofitable and heavily dependent on a small number of customers.
规模较小的上市新云服务商 IREN 周四晚间在财报中表示，其约 48% 的积压订单与微软相关。但该公司报告称 AI 云收入较上一期翻了一番多，给市场带来了一定缓解。IREN 股价周五飙升 20%，收复了周四的跌幅。
IREN a smaller publicly traded neocloud, said in its earnings report late Thursday that about 48% of its backlog was tied to Microsoft. But the company provided some relief to the market after reporting that AI cloud revenue more than doubled from the prior period. IREN's stock jumped 20% on Friday, recouping its losses from Thursday.
IREN 联席首席执行官 Daniel Roberts 对 CNBC 表示，公开市场表现与客户层面所见存在“脱节”，但他也承认金融市场带来的挑战。
Daniel Roberts, co-CEO of IREN, told CNBC that there's a "disconnect between what we're seeing in public market and what we're seeing at the customer level," but he acknowledged the challenge posed by financial markets.
“过去几周资本市场变得更加挑剔，问题无疑已从合同有多大，转变为能否交付、融资以及实现盈利运营，”Roberts 在财报电话会上表示。该公司目前背负 100 亿美元债务。“如何弥补这一融资缺口”截至 6 月底，CoreWeave 拥有 55 亿美元现金和 350 亿美元债务。根据最新财报，该公司有一笔 13 亿美元、利率 15% 的融资将于 2028 年 3 月到期，还有一笔 32 亿美元、利率 11% 的融资将于 2030 年 8 月到期。
Morningstar 覆盖 CoreWeave 的分析师 Luke Yang 表示，CoreWeave 短期内不太可能破产，且有资金履行现有合同，但未来五年的增长将需要更多资本。
"Capital markets have become more selective in the last few weeks, and the questions have undoubtedly moved from how big the contract is to whether it can be delivered, financed, and run at a profit," Roberts said on the earnings call. His company currently has $10 billion in debt. 'How to close this financing gap' At the end of June, CoreWeave was sitting on $5.5 billion in cash and $35 billion in debt. The company owed $1.3 billion at a 15% interest rate on a facility that comes due in March 2028, and had $3.2 billion in obligations on an August 2030 facility at an 11% rate, according to the latest earnings statement CoreWeave is unlikely to go bankrupt in the near future, and it has the funds to deliver on existing contracts, but growth over the next five years will require more capital, said Luke Yang, a Morningstar analyst covering CoreWeave.
杨表示：“如果他们想通过股权发行融资，股价并不利于他们，因为股价已大幅下跌。所以我也想看看管理层将如何谈论填补这一融资缺口的问题。”杨说，他也在关注更广泛的新云市场。
"If they want to issue money through equities, the stock price is not working in their favor, because the stock has been beaten down," Yang said. "So I also want to see how management talks about how to close this financing gap." Yang said he's also paying attention to the broader neocloud market.
总部位于英国的 Nscale 于 9 月提交了 IPO 申请文件，但此后未发布更新的招股说明书。杨说：“我不认为现在是他们上市的好时机。”
Nscale, based in the U.K., filed paperwork for an IPO in September but hasn't published an updated prospectus since then. "I wouldn't say it's a good time for them to go public," Yang said.
SB Energy 于 9 月初提交申请，处境相似；澳大利亚新云公司 Firmus 则于上个月取消了 IPO 计划。
SB Energy, which filed at the beginning of September, is in a similar predicament, and Australian neocloud Firmus nixed plans for an IPO last month.
据 CNBC 看到的一份 10 月备忘录显示，这种不确定性并未帮助 CoreWeave 的处境，Intrator 在备忘录中对员工表示。
The uncertainty has not helped CoreWeave's case, Intrator told employees in an October memo seen by CNBC.
他写道：“但这些公司试图在缺乏 CoreWeave 为客户提供的执行力、营收、规模或软件解决方案的情况下，筹集巨额资金。”投资者仍在观望。
"But these companies are trying to raise enormous amounts of capital without the execution, revenue, scale or software solutions that CoreWeave delivers to its customers," he wrote.
Freedom Capital Markets 技术研究主管 Paul Meeks 周四在 CNBC 节目《Power Lunch》中表示，目前的叙事“非常负面”。他说：“不幸的是，这是一个自我实现的预言，一个厄运循环：如果债权人担心 CoreWeave 偿还债务的能力，那么他们当然不得不以高昂的利率借款，以资助未来的 AI 基础设施建设。”
Investors are still on watch. Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Thursday that the narrative is "just so negative." "Unfortunately, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy, a doom cycle, where if the creditors are worried about CoreWeave paying back their debts, then of course they have to borrow going forward to fund their AI infrastructure build at exorbitant rates," he said.
CoreWeave 2025 年营收达 50 亿美元。Meeks 预计该数字将在 2028 年跃升至 420 亿美元，当年 EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）利润率将接近 70%。
CoreWeave generated $5 billion in revenue in 2025. Meeks estimates that number jumping to $42 billion in 2028, with an EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margin that year of close to 70%.
他说：“如果他们能步入这条轨道，且人们对这条轨道感到放心，那么他们就会对债务以及 CoreWeave 偿还这些债务的财务实力感到更放心。”据 LSEG 数据，分析师预计最近一个季度营收将同比增长约 160% 至 35.5 亿美元。Nebius 预计营收将增长六倍至约 9.08 亿美元。米克斯表示，他预计市场将从两份盈利报告中获得“一些缓解”。CoreWeave拒绝置评。Nebius未回应置评请求。
"If they can get on that path and folks feel comfortable with that path, then they'll feel more comfortable about the debts and CoreWeave's financial wherewithal to pay those debts." For the most recent quarter, analysts expect revenue growth of about 160% from a year earlier to $3.55 billion, according to LSEG. Nebius is expected to report sixfold growth to about $908 million. Meeks said he expects the market to get "some relief" from both earnings reports. CoreWeave declined to comment. Nebius didn't respond to a request for comment.
对米克斯而言，关键是让资本市场重新认可新云公司的增长故事，并相信利润即将到来。
For Meeks, the key is getting capital markets back on board with the neoclouds' growth story, and believing that profits are on the way.
他说：“你可以拥有一家健康的银行，但如果整体出现银行挤兑，它们可能会陷入困境。所以我并不愚蠢到轻视信用风险。”合伙人集团的阿莫罗索：市场正在质疑数据中心业务是否会继续。
"You can have a healthy bank, but if there's a run on banks generally speaking then they could be in some trouble," he said. "So I am not fool enough to downplay the credit risk." Partners Group's Amoroso: The markets are questioning if the data center trade will continue
