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得克萨斯州曾是共和党人在边境安全上的路线图。它现在会推动民主党的议程吗?Texas served as the roadmap for Republicans on border security. Will it now drive the agenda for Democrats?

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11月3日选举日当天,在得克萨斯州休斯敦,赫苏斯·帕切科触摸着洛伦佐·萨尔加多·阿劳霍纪念活动上的“我已投票”贴纸和手写留言。阿劳霍于7月被一名移民及海关执法局(ICE)探员杀害。Jesus Pacheco touches “I Voted” stickers and hand written messages on a memorial for Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, a man who was killed by an ICE agent July, during on Election Day on November 3 in Houston, Texas.

共和党籍州长格雷格·阿博特多年来让德克萨斯州处于移民辩论的中心,发起激进的州主导行动打击边境越境,并通过将数千名移民送往全国各地的蓝州城市来激怒民主党人。

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott placed Texas at the center of the immigration debate for years, launching aggressive state-led efforts to clamp down on border crossings and antagonizing Democrats by busing thousands of migrants to blue cities across the country.

但民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨当选州长彻底扭转了这一局面,德克萨斯州作为唐纳德·特朗普总统移民机器忠实合作伙伴的角色很可能已成过去。据现任和前任国土安全部官员、民主党议员及移民倡导者称,取而代之的将是对民主党如何治理这个编写了共和党边境安全剧本的州的考验。

But Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s election as governor has flipped that dynamic on its head, and Texas’ run as a loyal partner in President Donald Trump’s immigration machine is likely over. What replaces it will be a test of how Democrats govern the state that wrote the Republican playbook on border security, according to current and former Homeland Security officials, Democratic lawmakers, and immigrant advocates.

“这是一个根本性的转变,”杰森·豪泽说,他在拜登政府时期担任移民与海关执法局(ICE)幕僚长。“这将指导我们在全国范围内的边境安全工作。州长在这里拥有一张白纸,真正可以发挥引领作用。”民主党人夺取了德克萨斯州大多数核心权力杠杆——州长官邸、州检察长办公室和州众议院——这引出了一个远超奥斯汀的问题:美国最广泛的州联邦移民合作伙伴关系还能保留多少?

“It’s a foundational shift,” said Jason Houser, who served as chief of staff at Immigration and Customs Enforcement under the Biden administration. “It’s going to guide what we do on border security nationally. The governor has a clean slate here to really lead.”Democrats’ sweep into most of Texas’ top levers of power — the governor’s mansion, the attorney general’s office, and the state House — now raises a question that reaches well beyond Austin: How much of the nation’s most extensive state-federal immigration partnership survives?

伊诺霍萨称阿博特的“孤星行动”边境行动代价高昂,但她尚未说明会做何改变,她即将上任的州检察长表示将批判性地审视该州与ICE的协议。

Hinojosa has called Abbott’s “Operation Lone Star” border operation costly, though she has yet to say what she would change, and her incoming attorney general says he will look critically at the state’s agreements with ICE.

但由共和党控制的州参议院以及一项要求治安官签署这些协议的法律,意味着这一转向可能面临挑战——尤其是特朗普和其政府执法政策的设计师、现任白宫幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒很可能会推动继续逮捕行动。

But a Republican-held state Senate and a law requiring sheriffs to sign on to those agreements mean the pivot could prove challenging — especially with Trump and Stephen Miller, the architect of the administration’s enforcement policy and his new chief of staff, likely to push for continuing arrests.

一名国土安全部官员在被问及德州移民执法行动是否会发生变化时对CNN表示:“现在下结论还为时过早。”

“It’s too soon to tell,” a Homeland Security official told CNN, when asked if immigration operations are expected to change in the state.

但政府可能正在得到一个预演。周五,休斯顿市长约翰·惠特迈尔签署了一项新指令,限制在该市交通拦截期间美国移民与海关执法局(ICE)与当地执法部门之间的合作。今年7月,一名ICE警官在该市枪杀墨西哥建筑工人洛伦佐·萨尔加多·阿劳霍,引发公愤。

But the administration may be getting a preview. On Friday, Houston Mayor John Whitmire signed a new directive limiting cooperation between ICE and local law enforcement during traffic stops in the city where an ICE officer’s fatal shooting of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, a Mexican construction worker, in July sparked outrage.

惠特迈尔在新闻发布会上说:“我这样做是为了开始一个愈合过程,减少我们社区中的恐惧和焦虑。我多次说过:选举很重要。” 选举结果对特朗普政府是一个打击,特朗普政府早期曾寄望于得克萨斯州,部分是为了指导其移民执法方法,并为州和地方的协调设定预期。特朗普挑选了阿博特的顾问在其政府任职,甚至采纳了州长的一些想法。

“I do this to begin a healing process, reduce fear and anxiety across our community,” Whitmire said during a press conference. “I’ve said many times: elections matter.”The election results were a blow to the Trump administration, which looked to Texas early on to, in part, guide its approach to immigration enforcement and set expectations for state and local coordination. Trump plucked Abbott advisors to serve in his administration and even adopted some of the governor’s ideas.

休斯敦市长 John Whitmire 在 7 月 14 日主持休斯敦市议会会议期间,针对公众对 Lorenzo Salgado Araujo 遭 ICE 特工致命枪击一事的讨论做出反应。Mark Felix 摄 / AFP / Getty ImagesHouston Mayor John Whitmire reacts as he leads a Houston City Council meeting on July 14 during public discussion of the fatal ICE shooting of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo. Mark Felix/AFP/Getty Images
Lorenzo Salgado Araujo 的儿子 Ronaldo Salgado 在 11 月 3 日大选日,于得克萨斯州休斯敦,将 “I Voted” 贴纸贴在父亲的纪念处。Araujo 于 7 月被一名 ICE 特工击毙。Antranik Tavitian 摄 / CNNRonaldo Salgado, son of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, a man who was killed by an ICE agent July, places “I Voted” stickers on his father’s memorial site during on Election Day on November 3 in Houston, Texas. Antranik Tavitian for CNN

据民主党和共和党策略师称,得克萨斯州向民主党倾斜,部分是对特朗普移民打压政策的否定。但许多支持伊诺霍萨的选民心中有其他优先事项,例如她承诺遏制该州数据中心的建设。与此同时,CNN的选民调查显示,表示移民执法政策对其投票至关重要的人群,支持阿博特的比例高出17个百分点。

The swing toward Democrats in Texas were in part a repudiation of Trump’s immigration crackdown, according to Democratic and Republican strategists. But many of the voters who backed Hinojosa had other priorities in mind, such as her promise to curtail data center construction in the state. Meanwhile, people who said immigration enforcement policy was crucial to their vote were +17 for Abbott, CNN’s Voter Poll showed.

伊诺霍萨称阿博特的边境行动是“政治表演”,并表示需要对其进行审查。内森·约翰逊将接替共和党人肯·帕克斯顿出任州检察长,他在接受CNN采访时表示,他将批判性地审视州政府机构通过287(g)计划与ICE达成的少数几项合作伙伴关系。该计划允许不同层级的合作,从行政任务到主动执法。(得克萨斯州数百个地方机构已单独签署了此类协议。)约翰逊说:“如果我要保留该协议,那将是因为ICE向真正的伙伴关系敞开大门,这将赋予我对ICE在我州采取的行动拥有私人个别调查权。”

Hinojosa has called Abbott’s border operation “political theatre,” and said it needs to reviewed. Nathan Johnson, who will succeed Republican Ken Paxton as the state’s attorney general, told CNN in an interview that he will look critically at the handful of partnerships state agencies have entered with ICE through the 287(g) program. The program allows for different levels of cooperation, from administrative tasks to active enforcement. (Hundreds of local agencies in Texas have separately signed onto the agreements.)“If I were to keep that agreement, it’s going to be because ICE opens itself up to a true partnership, which gives me private individual investigative authority over actions by ICE committed in my state,” Johnson said.

民主党籍众议员维罗尼卡·埃斯科韦尔预测,将采取她所谓的“常识性”边境安全做法。“有一种方式可以确保公共安全,而不必因为治安官和县政府不听从特朗普政府的指挥就惩罚他们,”她对CNN表示。“我认为我们将采取更务实的方法。”多位接受CNN采访的消息人士预计,得克萨斯州在移民问题上的表态方式将发生变化,并将收回阿博特的一些有争议举措,包括“孤星行动”。该行动于2021年启动,旨在挑战时任总统乔·拜登的边境政策,当时非法越境人数创下纪录。

Democratic Rep. Veronica Escobar forecasted what she described as a “common sense” approach to border security. “There’s a way to ensure public safety without punishing sheriffs and counties for not doing the bidding of the Trump administration,” she told CNN. “I think we’re going to have a much more practical approach.”Multiple sources who spoke with CNN expect a change in how Texas asserts itself on immigration and a pullback on some of Abbott’s controversial efforts, including Operation Lone Star, which launched in 2021 as a challenge to former President Joe Biden’s border policies amid a record number of border crossings.

作为该行动的一部分,阿博特将移民乘坐大巴运往民主党执政的城市,封锁了一段边境阻止联邦执法人员进入,在格兰德河设置浮标阻拦移民,并签署法案授权州执法部门拘留移民,此外还有其他措施。

As part of that operation, Abbott transported migrants on buses to Democratic-led cities, blocked a portion of the border to federal agents, set up buoys in the Rio Grande to deter migrants, and signed a bill into law that would give state law enforcement the authority to detain migrants, among other measures.

特朗普接纳了这些想法,最终提名阿博特的一名高级顾问担任美国边境巡逻队局长,并在一些州级措施基础上进一步推进,例如在格兰德河投放更多浮标,以及依赖该州提供移民拘留设施。

Trump embraced those ideas, eventually tapping one of Abbott’s senior advisors to serve as US Border Patrol chief and building on some of the state’s measures, such as placing additional buoys in the Rio Grande, as well as leaning on the state for immigration detention.

当选州长伊诺霍萨曾批评这项耗资数十亿美元的边境安全计划是浪费金钱,并在担任得克萨斯州议员期间投票反对为其拨款。

Hinojosa, the incoming governor, has criticized the multibillion-dollar border-security initiative as a waste of money and had voted against appropriating funds toward it during her time in the Texas legislature.

这位在格兰德河谷边境地区长大的当选州长,尚未表明该计划在她的领导下将呈现何种前景。CNN已联系伊诺霍萨竞选团队置评。“孤星行动”可能的收缩让特朗普的一些盟友感到不安。

The governor-elect, who grew up near the border in the Rio Grande Valley, has not indicated what the future of the initiative would look like under her leadership. CNN reached out to the Hinojosa campaign for comment. The potential pullback of Operation Lone Star has rattled some of Trump’s allies.

Gina Hinojosa 于 7 月 29 日在得克萨斯州奥斯汀的办公室摆姿势拍照。Gabriel V. Cardenas 摄 / ReutersGina Hinojosa poses for a photo at her offices in Austin, Texas, on July 29. Gabriel V. Cardenas/Reuters

“德克萨斯州一直是唯一一个在投资边境安全——以及‘让美国再次伟大’大规模驱逐政策方面全力以赴的州。在这些方面,德克萨斯州可能即将迎来巨大变化,”遗产基金会边境安全高级研究员、前特朗普政府高级顾问托德·本斯曼表示,他对州政府支持力度减弱表示担忧,特别是在发生另一场边境危机的情况下。“边境安全最好是多层次的,”他说。

“Texas was always the lone standout of leaning into investment in border security – and MAGA mass deportation policies. It’s a big change coming probably coming for Texas on those scores,” said Todd Bensman, a senior research fellow on border security at the Heritage Foundation and former senior advisor in the Trump administration, who expressed concerns about state support diminishing particularly in the event of another border crisis. “Border security is best when it’s multi-layered,” he said.

这位国土安全部官员还指出,该部门过去曾与边境沿线的民主党州长面临挑战,但最终在危机时刻至少解决了其中一些问题。加利福尼亚州、亚利桑那州和新墨西哥州——这三个边境州——也都由民主党州长执政。

The Homeland Security official also noted that the department has faced challenges with Democratic governors along the border in the past but eventually resolved at least some of those issues in moments of crisis. California, Arizona, and New Mexico — all border states — also have Democratic governors.

特朗普周四在被问及希诺霍萨治下德克萨斯-墨西哥边境预期变化时表示:“我确信新州长会希望德克萨斯边境拥有安全。”“如果他们不延续我的政策,我会的,”他在椭圆形办公室对记者说。

Trump, when asked Thursday about expected changes at the Texas-Mexico border under Hinojosa, said, “I am sure that the new governor is going to want to have security at the Texas border.”“If they don’t continue my policy, I will,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.

该州的移民倡导者预计会有变化。但不一定是激进的变化——至少不会立即发生。

Immigrant advocates in the state expect changes. But not necessarily radical ones — at least not immediately.

“由于权力平衡将呈现的样子已经有相当一段时间没有出现过了,因此该州的这种新动态让人有一种新鲜感,”得克萨斯州大型移民服务和倡导组织RAICES的律师兼发言人哈维尔·奥·伊达尔戈表示。

“There’s a sense of newness for this dynamic in this state, because it’s been quite a while since the balance of power has been the way it’s going to look,” said Javier O. Hidalgo, an attorney and spokesperson for RAICES, a large Texas-based immigration services and advocacy group.

“我认为在州一级,你将看到一个时期,会出现某种对齐、同步,以理清工作流程,让那些政策落地,”他说。

“I think you’re going to see a period at the state level where you’ll see some kind of alignment, syncing up to figure out the workflows to get those policies in place,” he said.

虽然民主党在该州深红的行政部门取得了毁灭性的大胜,并夺回了德克萨斯州众议院的控制权,但该州参议院仍掌握在共和党手中。

While Democrats achieved a devastating rout of the state’s ruby-red executive branch and flipped the Texas House, its state Senate remains in Republican control.

分裂的立法机构将使得任何州法律的修改 —— 包括将非法越境定为州级犯罪、并强制许多地方司法管辖区与联邦移民当局合作的法律 —— 都成为一场艰难的斗争。

The split legislature would make any changes to state law — including laws that made it a state crime to illegally cross the border and compelled many local jurisdictions to cooperate with federal immigration authorities — an uphill slog.

民主党籍众议员华金·卡斯特罗告诉CNN,他预计伊诺霍萨将在该州的“移民执法面貌”上发挥“重要作用”,即使她需要州立法机构的配合才能修改某些法律和政策。

Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro told CNN he expects Hinojosa will have a “big hand in what immigration enforcement looks like” in the state, even if she’ll need the cooperation of the state legislature to change certain law and policies.

他说:“明确地说,移民执法和边境安全依然会存在。但希望能开启一个新时代,不再从事种族定性,也不再因为要大张旗鼓地展示大规模驱逐,就让公共安全局(DPS)人员充斥街头、让得克萨斯州国民警卫队填满拘留中心。”

“To be clear, you’re still going to have immigration enforcement and border security. But hopefully, it will be a new era where you don’t engage in racial profiling, and you don’t flood the streets with DPS or detention centers with the Texas National Guard because you’re trying to make a big show of mass deportation,” he said.

倡导组织FWD.us的一项分析显示,得克萨斯州的州和地方执法部门与联邦政府的合作比其他任何州都更紧密、更广泛。

State and local law enforcement cooperate more closely and extensively with the federal government in Texas than any other state, according to an analysis from advocacy group FWD.us.

这些数字因阿博特去年签署的一项州法律而得到提升,该法律强制该州254个县中运营监狱的治安官以某种形式与联邦移民当局合作。

Those numbers have been boosted by a state law signed last year by Abbott, compelling sheriffs who operate jails in any of the state’s 254 counties to cooperate with federal immigration authorities in some form.

移民与海关执法局(ICE)特工在 3 月 23 日于得克萨斯州休斯敦的乔治·布什洲际机场 E 航站楼进入电梯时隐藏身份。Antranik Tavitian 摄 / Getty ImagesImmigration and Customs Enforcement agents hide their identities as they enter an elevator at Terminal E at George Bush Intercontinental Airport on March 23 in Houston, Texas. Antranik Tavitian/Getty Images

大多数治安官都照做了,但也有人担心这些协议会如何影响社区信任。在联邦参议员选举中落败的帕克斯顿,对一些未立即遵守的县展开调查并发出要求函。

Most have done so, but some held concerns about how the agreements would affect community trust. Paxton, who lost his US Senate election, launched investigations and sent demand letters to some counties that did not immediately comply.

该法律要求协议在下个月前签署。但执行工作将主要落到1月就职的民主党人手中。

That law requires the agreements to be signed by next month. But enforcement will largely fall to Democrats who take office in January.

当选总检察长约翰逊表示,得克萨斯州治安官与联邦政府之间一向保持着尊重的工作关系 —— 尤其是在边境地区,他们经常共同工作 —— 将这种关系正式化是“多余的,且剥夺了地方治安官的自由裁量权”。他说:“同时,执行这项法律的责任落在总检察长身上。”

Johnson, the incoming attorney general, said there had always been a respectful working relationship between Texas sheriffs and the federal government – especially in the border area where they work together frequently – and that formalizing that relationship was “unnecessary and took discretion away from local sheriffs.”“At the same time, enforcing that law falls upon the attorney general,” he said.

约翰逊现在将有权自行决定是否对拒不执行协议者采取法律行动。“如果他们毫无正当理由地藐视法律,那么我会确保他们遵守法律,即使我不喜欢这条法律,”他说。

Johnson will now have discretion over whether to pursue legal action against holdouts to the agreements. “And if they’re flouting the law for no good reason, then I’ll see to it that they follow the law, even if I don’t like the law,” he said.

他说,对于认为该法律将“损害他们提供公共安全的能力”的执法官员,可以作出例外处理。

Exceptions could be made, he said, for law enforcement officials who believe the law is going to “compromise their ability to provide public safety.”

活动人士警告说,如果得克萨斯州民主党人不能抓住政治风向的变化,该州的势头以及该党更大的未来抱负可能会丧失。得克萨斯州公民权利项目总裁、2022年民主党州总检察长候选人罗谢尔·加尔扎表示,选民给了该党一个机会,同时也赋予了一项使命。“坦白说,”她说,“如果不抓住这个机会,它可能会失去。”

Activists warn that if the changes in the political tides are not seized upon by Texas Democrats, momentum in the state, and the party’s larger, future ambitions, may be lost. Rochelle Garza, the president of the Texas Civil Rights Project and the Democratic Party’s 2022 nominee for state attorney general, said voters gave the party an opportunity – but also a mandate. “And frankly,” she said, “if it’s not seized upon, it can be lost.”

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