多位华尔街策略师认为，在上周以人工智能股领跌的大幅抛售之后，市场今年剩余时间很可能反弹。标普500指数上周下跌2.7%，连续第四周收跌。纳斯达克综合指数暴跌3.4%，将纳斯达克推入回调区间——较上月刚创下的纪录高位下跌逾10%。但摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在周日的报告中表示：“我们认为，回调正进入最后阶段，因为标普500指数正追随市场广度走弱，并逼近我们7100–7300点的下行区间。最后一次回测上周低点，很可能为年底反弹奠定基础。”
Several strategists on Wall Street think the market could very well recover the rest of this year after a steep sell-off last week led by artificial intelligence stocks. The S & P 500 fell 2.7% last week, its fourth consecutive weekly decline. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 3.4%, pushing the Nasdaq into a correction — down more than 10% from a record set just last month. But "the correction is entering its final phase, in our view, as the S & P catches down to breadth and approaches our 7100–7300 downside range," said Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note Sunday. "A final retest of last week's lows likely sets up a year-end rally."
威尔逊给出的标普500指数12个月目标位为8000点，较周五收盘水平高出8.4%。 .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date 近几周，围绕人工智能的资金担忧冲击了股市的牛市行情。范埃克半导体ETF（SMH）过去一个月下跌22%。Roundhill存储芯片ETF（DRAM）同期暴跌约30%。但抛售可能已过度。摩根大通策略师米斯拉夫·马泰卡写道：“我们不认为人工智能会继续被抛售。事实上，科技股回调提供了一定机会。此次抛售非常剧烈，市盈率压缩极端。”
Wilson has a 12-month S & P 500 target of 8,000, or 8.4% above Friday's closing level. .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date Funding concerns around AI have dented the stock market's bull run in recent weeks. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down 22% over the past month. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) has plunged about 30% in that time. But the selling may have gone too far. "We do not think AI is a continued sell here," JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka wrote. "In fact, Tech drawdown is offering certain opportunities. The selloff was very sharp, and P/E compression extreme."
他补充道：“如果科技板块企稳，上行周期可能看起来更具可持续性。加速阶段已过，但这不一定意味着我们必须直接进入全面收缩阶段。”周一早盘科技股出现反弹。标普500指数科技板块跳涨2%，涨幅由Lumentum和Ciena领涨，前者近期同意以约1150亿美元被Marvell Technology收购。涨幅受限于英伟达下跌5%，此前首席执行官黄仁勋证实与一名涉嫌中国间谍人员有关系。
"If the Tech space stabilizes, upcycle will likely look more sustainable. The acceleration phase is behind us, but it doesn't necessarily follow that we need to move into outright contraction next," he added. Tech appeared to recover in early trading Monday. The S & P 500 tech sector jumped 2%, led by gains in Lumentum , which recently agreed to be acquired by Marvell Technology for about $115 billion, and Ciena . Gains were held back by a 5% drop in Nvidia after CEO Jensen Huang confirmed a relationship with an alleged Chinese spy.
德意志银行策略师帕拉格·塔特写道：“大盘股股票仓位目前与标普500指数零盈利增长的情况一致，而主动型投资者的仓位则与盈利转为负增长的情况一致。随着上周的暴跌，风险回报比现在变得更加有利。”
"Large-cap equity positioning is now in line with zero earnings growth for the S & P 500 while discretionary investors are aligned with growth turning negative," Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte wrote. "With the plunge [last] week, the risk-reward is now even more favorable."