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市场脉搏:科技股遭暴力抛售 但不会陷入20%回撤Violent Tech Rout Will Avoid a 20% Drawdown: Markets Pulse

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最新一期《市场脉搏》调查显示,纳斯达克100指数成分股市值蒸发2.3万亿美元,但这一跌势尚不足以让该基准指数跌入熊市,即较近期高点下跌20%。

A $2.3 trillion wipeout in Nasdaq 100 stocks will stop short of sending the benchmark into a bear market, or a 20% drop from recent highs, according to the latest Markets Pulse survey.

尽管周一出现反弹,该科技股指数仍较10月峰值低逾10%。然而,在上周大幅抛售后于11月6日至9日进行的即时调查中,139名受访者中有多数表示,在可预见的未来亏损仍将受控,或者更深的下跌要到2027年才会出现。这两组人合计超过了其余48%预计年底前还会进一步下跌的受访者。

Despite a rebound on Monday, the tech stock index remains more than 10% below its October peak. Yet a majority of the 139 respondents to an instant poll — conducted Nov. 6-9 after last week’s steep selloff — said losses will remain contained in the foreseeable future, or a deeper slide won’t happen until 2027. Combined, the two groups outweighed the remaining 48% of respondents who expected a further drop into year-end.

这与华尔街正在改善的叙事相吻合。大型银行的策略师认为,强劲的盈利、更低的估值以及杠杆头寸的迅速平仓,正在增强人工智能相关股票的吸引力。

That gels with an improving narrative on Wall Street. Strategists at major banks argue strong earnings, cheaper valuations and a rapid unwind in leveraged positions are strengthening the case for AI-exposed stocks.

摩根大通由杜布拉夫科·拉科斯-布哈斯领衔的策略师团队在上周五的一份报告中写道:“尽管这轮回调对市场而言很痛苦,但我们认为这很大程度上是一次去杠杆事件。鉴于人工智能周期一直面临持续质疑,而市场相当迅速地惩罚过度行为,这最终应会支撑人工智能超级周期的持久性。”对股市前景的信心受到强劲利润增长的支撑,标普500指数有望连续第二个季度再涨33%。剔除经济衰退后的复苏期,过去两个季度每股收益的平均增幅约为1998年以来典型增速的三倍。

“While the pullback has been painful for markets, we see this largely as a deleveraging event,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote in a note on Friday. “Given the constant skepticism that the AI cycle has faced and the market penalizing excesses fairly rapidly, this should ultimately support the durability of the AI super cycle.”Confidence in the outlook for equities is underpinned by robust profit growth, with the S&P 500 on pace for another 33% advance for a second consecutive quarter. Excluding periods of recovery after economic recessions, the average gain in earnings per share in the past two quarters has run at about three times the typical pace since 1998.

超过40%的受访者表示,由于上周的暴跌显著压低了估值,他们正在加仓;约三分之一表示持仓不变。仅27%表示进一步削减了股票敞口。

More than 40% of survey takers said they were adding to stocks as last week’s rout significant compressed valuations, while about a third said they were leaving allocations unchanged. Just 27% indicated further cutting their equity exposure.

摩根士丹利股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊领衔的团队在周一的一份报告中写道:“回调正进入最后阶段。与其等待一个完美的低点,我们建议在未来几周增加敞口。”他们重点推荐资产负债表强劲、盈利预期上调且受益于稳健经济周期的股票。

“The correction is entering its final phase,” Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note Monday. “Rather than waiting for a perfect low, we recommend adding exposure over the next few weeks,” highlighting stocks with strong balance sheets and positive earnings revisions riding the robust economic cycle.

科技股近期的下跌给Anthropic PBC的首次公开募股蒙上了阴影,这可以说是今年最受期待的上市。该公司最早可于周二正式开始为其IPO进行市场推介,不过科技股抛售令人怀疑这桩可能达到万亿美元规模的上市能否按计划在11月底推进。

The recent swoon in tech stocks has cast a cloud over Anthropic PBC’s initial public offering, arguably the most anticipated debut this year. The company can formally begin marketing its IPO as early as Tuesday, though the tech selloff has raised questions over whether the likely trillion-dollar listing will proceed as planned for the end of November.

Anthropic被视为整个人工智能交易的晴雨表,其估值将显示投资者是否仍有兴趣继续为这场历史性的基础设施热潮提供资金。

Perceived as a barometer for the broader AI trade, its valuation will indicate investors’ appetite to continue to fund the historic infrastructure boom.

彭博策略师观点……“过去几十年里的每一项科技创新都展现出巨大的网络效应和规模经济,这使得能够主导格局的竞争者寥寥无几。对于人工智能而言,令人担忧的是企业正掀起一波大规模过度投资浪潮,而长期持谨慎态度的投资者已决定停止为此提供资金。”——市场直播宏观策略师爱德华·哈里森。

What Bloomberg strategists say...“Every tech innovation in the last few decades has displayed huge network effects and economies of scale that preclude more than just a few competitors dominating the landscape. For artificial intelligence, the concern is that companies are embarking on a massive wave of over-investment that long-wary investors have decided to stop funding.” — Edward Harrison, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.

近半数受访者表示,他们预计IPO将在今年推进,估值最高达其最新报告的1.3万亿美元。这将较此前的区间以及10月初高达2万亿美元的估算有所回落。超过三分之一受访者认为存在上市推迟至明年的风险。

Nearly half of respondents to the survey said they expect the IPO to proceed this year at the latest reported valuation of up to $1.3 trillion. That would mark a retreat from a prior range and estimates that went as high as $2 trillion in early October. More than a third saw a risk that the listing gets delayed to next year.

当被问及哪种资产最能对冲股市更大幅度的波动时,多数受访者选择美国国债而非黄金,一些人则指出石油、比特币和国际股票是有吸引力的替代选择。

When asked which asset will serve as the best hedge against a bigger wobble in the equity market, the majority of respondents picked Treasuries over gold, while some noted oil, Bitcoin and international equities as compelling alternatives.

Karobaar Capital首席投资官哈里斯·库尔希德表示:“如果你在这种环境下交易,就必须为市场朝任一方向大幅波动做好准备,并拥有应对这种环境的工具。”

“If you’re trading this kind of environment, you have to be prepared for the market to move hard in either direction, and have tools to manage that kind of environment,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer for Karobaar Capital.

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