纳斯达克100指数已跌入技术性回调区间，即从近期高点下跌10%或以上。
The Nasdaq 100 has slumped into a technical correction, defined as a decline of 10% or more from a recent peak.
这个以科技股为主的美国股指周一收于略低于28000点。这比其于10月6日创下的31000点以上的历史高位大幅低了10.4%。以下是专业人士对这次回调的看法。
The tech-heavy US stock index closed at just under 28,000 points on Monday. That's a hefty 10.4% below the all-time high of over 31,000 points it notched on October 6. Here's what smart people are saying about the correction.
大卫·罗森伯格，罗森伯格研究公司总裁大卫·罗森伯格周二在晨报中表示，鉴于巨额资金涌入“任何声称拥有AI概念的公司”，这次回调“很可能是不可避免的”。
David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research A correction was "probably inevitable" given the huge volume of capital pouring into "any company claiming to have an AI angle," David Rosenberg, the president of Rosenberg Research, said in a morning note on Tuesday.
这位美林证券前首席北美经济学家称，“AI交易的双方同时出现疲软。”他继续指出，微软和Alphabet等公司遭抛售是因为它们支出过大、侵蚀现金流，而它们的供应商遭抛售则是因为“支出并未加速”。“主导主题是投资者不再奖励AI建设，转而追问何时能收回成本，”罗森伯格补充道。
The former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch said that "both sides of the AI trade are faltering at once." The likes of Microsoft and Alphabet have sold off because they're spending too much and eroding their cash flows, he continued, while their suppliers have sold off because "spending isn't speeding up." "The overriding theme is that investors stopped rewarding the AI buildout and started asking when it pays back," Rosenberg added.
吉姆·里德，德意志银行宏观研究全球主管吉姆·里德及其团队在晨报中表示，纳斯达克指数回调缺乏“显性催化剂”，但“中期选举出现‘蓝色浪潮’的预期升温”似乎正在拖累科技股。
Jim Reid, head of macro research at Deutsche Bank There isn't an "overt catalyst" for the Nasdaq correction, but "emerging expectations of a blue wave in the midterms" appear to be weighing on tech stocks, Jim Reid, the global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank, and his team said in a morning note.
里德及其团队补充称，投资者正在为民主党获胜可能导致“数据中心建设面临更大障碍，并推动加强AI监管”这一前景定价。
Investors are pricing in the prospect of a Democratic victory resulting in "greater hurdles for data center buildout and a push for more AI regulation," Reid and his team added.
尼尔·威尔逊，盛宝英国投资策略师尼尔·威尔逊周二通过电子邮件告诉《商业内幕》，基金经理们“只是在降低对AI交易的整体敞口”，因为其走势已变得“难看”。
Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK Fund managers are "just reducing overall exposure" to the AI trade as it's turned "ugly," Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK, told Business Insider by email on Tuesday.
威尔逊指出，摩根士丹利截至10月下旬的数据显示，股票多空对冲基金经历了该投行自2016年开始追踪以来最大的总流入回撤。
Wilson pointed to Morgan Stanley data through late October showing that equity long/short hedge funds experienced their biggest gross-flow drawdown since the investment bank started tracking them in 2016.
他表示，对AI投资回报的“审视肯定多得多”，并指出一些大规模云服务商近期的财报显示，因在AI设备上的巨额支出导致现金流为负。“这是一个有点泡沫破裂的时刻，”威尔逊说。
He said there's "definitely a lot more scrutiny" on returns from AI investments, flagging that some recent hyperscaler earnings showed negative cash flows due to heavy spending on AI equipment. "Bit of a bubble bursting moment," Wilson said.
行业评论《Kobeissi Letter》周一在X平台发文称，科技股的回调不仅反映了对AI支出损害利润的担忧，也反映了投资者在“为两年的政治僵局定价”。
The Kobeissi Letter The correction in tech stocks reflects not just concerns about AI spending hurting profits, but investors "pricing in two years of political gridlock," The Kobeissi Letter, an industry commentary, said in an X post on Monday.
该通讯的撰稿人指出，市场预期民主党在中期选举中大获全胜的情绪升温，而特朗普总统誓言如果共和党失去对众议院和参议院的控制权，他将做“否决先生”。
The newsletter's writers pointed to surging expectations of a Democrat sweep in the midterms, and President Trump vowing to be "Mr. Veto" if Republicans cede control of the House and Senate.