债券交易员正在等待周二发布的一份关键通胀报告，以寻找美联储政策路径走向的线索，以及近期美国国债反弹是否还有延续空间。
Bond traders are waiting for a key inflation report on Tuesday for clues on the direction of the Federal Reserve’s policy path and whether the recent Treasury rally has more room to run.
上周，受中期选举民主党大胜引发科技股抛售、投资者避险买盘涌入的影响，全期限美债收益率跌至9月以来最低。周一美股显现企稳迹象，10年期收益率小幅回升至4.88%，但仍远低于上月触及的5%以上水平。周二亚洲时段收益率变动不大。
Treasury yields across the curve fell to their lowest since September last week after a Democratic sweep in the midterms led to a selloff in technology stocks that sent investors fleeing to safety. As equities showed signs of stabilizing Monday, the 10-year yield ticked up to 4.88%, but remained well off levels above 5% reached last month. It was little changed in Asia on Tuesday.
经济学家预计美盘时段稍晚公布的消费者物价数据将显示通胀步伐放缓但仍处高位，这将维持美联储在12月下次会议上加息的压力。
Economists expect consumer price data later in the US session to show the pace of inflation moderating while remaining elevated, keeping pressure on the Fed to hike rates at its next meeting in December.
西木管理公司管理规模12亿美元多元资产基金的投资组合经理斯科特·巴纳德表示：“如果我们再次看到相对偏热的通胀数据，我认为很有可能开始看到部分加息预期再度前置。”
“If we get another relatively hot inflation print, I think it’s quite likely you start to see some of the rate hikes get pulled forward again,” said Scott Barnard, a portfolio manager of a $1.2 billion multi-asset fund at Westwood Management Corp.
根据彭博对经济学家的调查，预计美国10月消费者物价环比上涨0.3%。这低于9月0.6%的前值主流通胀读数，后者为五个月来最快涨幅。由于去年10月因政府停摆未发布消费者价格指数数据，周二的数据将没有同比对比。
US consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.3% in October from a month earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That’s down from the prior headline inflation print of 0.6% for September, the fastest pace in five months. Tuesday’s data will not have a year-over-year comparison, as consumer price index data for October last year was not released due to a government shutdown.
这将是12月美联储政策会议前的最后一份CPI报告，利率互换市场定价显示12月加息25个基点的概率超过80%，预计到明年夏天将加息约两次。就在上个月，合约还完全定价到那时将加息三次。
The data will be the last CPI report before the December Fed policy meeting, where the interest-rate swap market is pricing in more than an 80% chance of a quarter-point increase, with about two hikes seen by next summer. As recently as last month, the contracts fully priced three hikes by that point.
美联储在9月加息，这是自2023年以来的首次加息，此前因美国对伊朗开战导致油价飙升，助推了通胀。然而，市场已对加息周期降低预期，因为美联储官员上月决定维持利率不变，并表示在进一步加息前倾向于保持耐心。
The Fed raised rates in September, the first increase since 2023, after a surge in oil prices on the back of the US war against Iran helped spur inflation. Markets, however, have moderated expectations for a hiking cycle, after Fed officials opted to hold rates steady last month and expressed a bias toward exercising patience before further increases.
随着长期来看通胀降至美联储2%目标的前景增大，Neuberger Berman高级投资组合经理Olumide Owolabi对国债目前的反弹行情能够持续抱有希望。
Prospects for inflation to come down to the Fed’s 2% target in the longer term are making Olumide Owolabi, a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, hopeful that the current rally in Treasuries could continue.
Owolabi表示：“利率相对于我们认为的合理定价水平，仍略显偏高。”他共同管理约900亿美元的投资级固定收益投资组合。“与此同时，考虑到从高位以来我们已看到的反弹，我们并没有大幅超配。”
“Rates are still a little elevated relative to where we think they should price,” said Owolabi, who co-manages investment-grade fixed-income portfolios worth about $90 billion. “At the same time, we’re not aggressively overweight considering the rally that we’ve seen from the high levels.”