政坛有句俗语：“每一次选举，归根结底都是关于下一次选举。”11月3日，共和党在2026年中期选举中遭遇了有部分人称为近乎“灭绝级”的惨败。由于结果很可能预示着下一届总统大选的走向，共和党在2028年有哪些选择？首先，我们需要弄清这场最新的“蓝色海啸”为何发生。中期选举是对特朗普的否决，而非对民主党的背书。
There is a saying in politics: “Every election is fundamentally about the next one.”On November 3, the Republican Party suffered what some have labelled a near “extinction-level” loss in the 2026 midterms. With the results likely to offer an indication of what lies ahead in the next presidential election, what options do Republicans have for 2028? First, we need to understand why this latest “blue tsunami” occurred. The midterms were a rejection of Trump, not an endorsement of the Democrats.
上周二的结果反映了选民让特朗普为经济灾难、生活成本大幅上涨、他在伊朗问题上的失败战争，以及他对以色列的迎合负责。这也是对特朗普家族利用椭圆形办公室为自己及其朋友谋取前所未有的私利的谴责。
Last Tuesday’s outcome reflected voters holding Trump responsible for economic disaster, huge increases in the cost of living, his failing war on Iran, and his catering to Israel. It is also a condemnation of the Trump family using the Oval Office to enrich themselves and their friends to an unprecedented degree.
进入中期选举时，选民已将特朗普政府视为腐败，并认为其抛弃了最初帮助他当选的民粹主义草根基础。糟糕的经济、失败的关税政策和一场不受欢迎的战争，扩大了“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）忠诚派——他们依然忠于特朗普这一政治人物——与共和党内“美国优先”派系之间的裂痕，后者忠于特朗普竞选时承诺却未能兑现的价值观。这两个群体曾被视为可互换，它们的分离最终摧毁了将特朗普和共和党送上华盛顿权力巅峰的特朗普联盟。
Coming into the midterms, voters saw the Trump administration as corrupt and as having abandoned the populist grassroots that had helped him get elected in the first place. A bad economy, failed tariffs, and an unwanted war widened the gap between the MAGA loyalists – who remain loyal to Trump as a political figure – and the America First factions of the Republican Party, which remain loyal to the values that Trump had campaigned on but failed to deliver. It was the separation of these two groups, once seen as interchangeable, that ultimately destroyed the Trump coalition, which had brought Trump and the Republicans to power in Washington.
在最近的中期选举中，我们目睹了保守派运动中许多知名声音公开反对共和党领袖。塔克·卡尔森和玛乔丽·泰勒·格林等知名保守派人士公开反对多位共和党候选人，其中包括密歇根州的迈克·罗杰斯和得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿。前特朗普支持者尼克·富恩特斯数月来呼吁其追随者投票给民主党人。他们的论点是，特朗普背叛了“美国优先”原则，已不再值得信任。
During the latest midterms, we witnessed many prominent voices in the conservative movement openly oppose Republican leaders. Popular conservatives such as Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene spoke out publicly against several Republican candidates, including Mike Rogers in Michigan and Ken Paxton in Texas. Former Trump supporter Nick Fuentes advocated for months for his followers to vote for Democrats. Their argument was that Trump had betrayed America First principles and could no longer be trusted.
许多曾因特朗普的经济议程及其表示想要“不再发动战争”而支持他的草根特朗普选民，因生活成本上升和失业而深受其害。最终，特朗普在年轻选民、西班牙裔和拉丁裔选民、黑人男性选民，以及郊区和独立选民中失去了支持。
Many former grassroots Trump voters who had supported him because of his economic agenda and because he had said that he wanted “no more wars” had suffered greatly due to the increasing cost of living and job losses. In the end, Trump lost support among young voters, Hispanic and Latino voters, Black men, and suburban and independent voters.
这些结果让共和党处于关键十字路口，令许多人猜测该党在2028年将持有何种愿景。他们应更多聚焦后特朗普时代，抛弃特朗普，还是加倍坚持其原有议程并重建其联盟以维持相关性？此处有两股主要力量在博弈：作为强势人物的特朗普本人，以及想要夺回党的控制权并维持相关性的共和党建制派。许多观察家将这两股力量混为一谈，另一些人则认为特朗普重塑了该党并在此过程中成为了建制派。
These results put the Republican Party at a critical juncture, leaving many to wonder what vision the party will have in 2028. Should they focus more on the post-Trump era, leaving Trump behind, or double down on his original agenda and rebuild his coalition to stay relevant? There are two major forces at play here: Trump himself, as a powerful figure, and the Republican establishment that wants to regain control of the party and stay relevant. Many observers conflate these two forces, while others believe that Trump reinvented the party and became the establishment in the process.
这两种看法都不对。虽然特朗普仍是共和党内最有权势的人，其更广泛的政治运作拥有数亿美元资金支持其议程，但他从未是建制派。
Both are wrong. While Trump is still the most powerful person in the Republican Party, and his broader political operation has many hundreds of millions of dollars to support his agenda, he was never the establishment.
传统的共和党建制派包括机构捐款人网络、前党领导人、里根式智库以及在特朗普推动法官任命和减税时接受其统治，但从未真正接受其民粹主义接管的企业游说团体。中期选举结果为更传统的权力结构再次试图“夺回他们的党”提供了助力。双方都是拥有有影响力基础的强大力量。建制派尤其指望特朗普联盟已大幅削弱且难以重建。
The traditional Republican establishment includes institutional donor networks, former party leaders, Reaganite think tanks, and corporate lobbying groups that accepted Trump’s reign while he was delivering on judges and tax cuts, but never truly accepted his populist takeover. The midterm results have given a boost to the more traditional power structures to attempt, again, to “take their party back”. Both are powerful forces with influential bases. The establishment is counting particularly on the fact that the Trump coalition has weakened considerably and will be hard to regenerate.
他们认为，特朗普可能会将筹款精力集中在自己身上——以建设他的总统图书馆的形式——而不是帮助新候选人。在基层方面，共和党选民在特朗普处理爱泼斯坦丑闻、前所未有的政治牟利和腐败指控以及对伊朗的战争方面表现不佳后感到被背叛。
They think Trump is likely to focus his fundraising efforts on himself – in the form of building his presidential library – rather than helping new candidates. On the grassroots side, Republican voters feel betrayed after Trump’s poor handling of the Epstein scandal, unprecedented political profiteering and corruption allegations, and the war on Iran.
由于这些中期选举是对特朗普有多不受欢迎的公投，这使共和党面临两个主要选择：重建特朗普联盟，或为后特朗普保守党做准备。现在的关键问题是，共和党候选人如何在与特朗普保持距离的同时，试图重建他获胜的选民基础。走这条钢丝意味着要找到一种方法，让MAGA和美国优先再次走到一起。在当前政治气候下，这似乎是一项不可能完成的任务，但很难想象还有其他获胜的情景。
Since these midterms were a referendum on how unpopular Trump has become, this leaves the Republican Party with two primary options: rebuild the Trump coalition or prepare themselves for a post-Trump conservative party. The key question now is how Republican candidates can distance themselves from Trump while at the same time attempting to rebuild his winning voter base. Walking this tightrope will mean finding a way to bring MAGA and America First back together again. This may seem like an impossible task in the current political climate, but it is hard to imagine any other winning scenario.
已有许多名字进入竞选视野，未来几个月内可能会有更多人加入。最近中期选举之前，副总统JD·万斯似乎是前景最好的继承人人选。万斯因与特朗普关系密切，以及能够获得MAGA和科技行业富有捐助者的支持而拥有强大影响力。他还与“美国优先”派别有联系。一年前，转折点美国公开支持了他。拥有大量追随者的塔克·卡尔森仍然支持万斯。
There are many names already in play, with more likely to enter the field within the coming months. Vice President JD Vance seemed to be the heir apparent with the strongest prospects prior to the recent midterms. Vance is powerful in terms of his proximity to Trump and the support he can garner from MAGA and wealthy donors in the tech industry. He also has ties to the America First crowd. Turning Point USA endorsed him publicly a year ago. Tucker Carlson, with his large following, still supports Vance.
另一方面，万斯很难与特朗普政府在经济、移民和对伊朗战争方面的失败划清界限。万斯需要走钢丝，既要批评特朗普足以与糟糕政策划清界限，又不能失去强硬MAGA基本盘的支持，而该基本盘若感到被抛弃，很可能会进行报复。如果万斯完全拒绝批评特朗普，我们很可能会看到卡玛拉·哈里斯—乔·拜登情景的重演。在选举能力方面，万斯的一大弱点是他本人并非建制派人物。
On the other hand, Vance will have a hard time distancing himself from the Trump administration’s failures on the economy, immigration, and the war on Iran. Vance will have to walk a fine line, criticising Trump enough to distance himself from bad policies while not losing support from the hardcore MAGA base, which is likely to retaliate if it feels left behind. If Vance refuses to criticise Trump altogether, we will likely see a repeat of the Kamala Harris-Joe Biden scenario. One of Vance’s major weaknesses when it comes to electability is that he is not an establishment figure himself.
2022年，他在俄亥俄州参议院选举中面临艰难竞选。2024年，特朗普因其与科技亿万富翁的联系以及为了挑战共和党建制派而选择他作为竞选搭档。如果建制派开始在共和党领导层圈子里重新站稳脚跟，这些因素将使万斯在2028年竞选中的道路变得复杂。
He faced a difficult race for the US Senate in Ohio in 2022. Trump chose him in 2024 as his running mate due to his ties to the tech billionaires and to challenge the Republican establishment. These factors will complicate Vance’s journey within the 2028 field should the establishment start to regain its footing within Republican leadership circles.
2028年特朗普政府内的建制派热门人选是马尔科·鲁比奥。鲁比奥更容易与特朗普的经济政策划清界限，但要与特朗普的外交政策和战争划清界限则会更困难。鲁比奥在建制派、新保守派和传统捐款人群体中颇受欢迎。然而，他并非MAGA的最爱，也不被视为“美国优先”的选择。鲁比奥的主要问题是，他是许多人眼中的第二选择。此外，他与米里亚姆·阿德尔森等有争议的捐款人的关系将成为他面临的重大障碍，他对以色列在美国政治中影响力的看法也将是障碍。
The 2028 establishment favourite within the Trump administration is Marco Rubio. It will be easier for Rubio to distance himself from Trump’s economy, but he will have a harder time distancing himself from Trump’s foreign policy and the war. Rubio is well-liked within the establishment, neoconservative and traditional donor groups. However, he is not a MAGA favourite, nor is he seen as an America First choice. Rubio’s main problem is that he is many people’s second choice. Also, his relationship with controversial donors such as Miriam Adelson will be a significant obstacle for him, as will his views on Israeli influence in US politics.
在考虑2028年大选时，即将卸任的佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯是另一位强有力的竞争者。他正在为自己在一月离任后领导共和党而做准备。德桑蒂斯被广泛认为是共和党在这场残酷的中期选举中取得的唯一成功的功臣。他还与佛罗里达州及全国的亲以色列捐款人关系密切。然而，他2024年在对抗特朗普的全国竞选中表现不佳并最终失败，人们并未忘记。
When thinking about 2028, Ron DeSantis, the outgoing governor of Florida, is another strong player. He is positioning himself to lead the Republican Party after leaving office in January. DeSantis is widely credited with the only success that Republicans had in this brutal midterm. He also has close ties to pro-Israel donors in Florida and nationwide. However, his weak performance and failure in running a national campaign against Trump in 2024 have not been forgotten.
除了这些名字，这个领域很可能会出现许多其他候选人，其中一些人将代表建制派，更多人则将同时挑战这两股势力。中期选举虽然是对特朗普缺乏人气的公投，但也是对建制派的一次投票。许多共和党人和保守派将抓住这一势头，试图付诸行动。在这个阵营中，我们可能会看到众议员托马斯·马西，前众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林可能会参选，以及我们目前还不完全了解的局外人。
Besides these names, the field will likely have many other candidates, some of whom will represent the establishment, and more who will challenge both forces alike. While the midterms were a referendum on Trump’s lack of popularity, they were also a vote against the establishment. Many Republicans and conservatives will pick up on this momentum and attempt to act on it. In this camp, we could see people like Congressman Thomas Massie, a possible run by former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, as well as complete outsiders who we don’t yet know.
在我看来，决定性因素将是民主党。民主党在未来两年内的管理策略将在很大程度上决定共和党在2028年的成败。换句话说，2028年现在是民主党可以输掉的选举。
The determining factor, in my opinion, will be the Democrats. The Democrats’ strategy in managing the next two years will play a major role in the success or failure of the Republicans in 2028. In other words, 2028 is now the Democrats’ to lose.
民主党是聚焦于反特朗普报复，还是重建经济、重获选民信任，将决定共和党东山再起的能力。报复将给特朗普带来又一次生还的机会，但如果民主党坚持维持现有领导层，不对其捐助者阶层和富裕精英做出任何根本性转变，他们就几乎没有动力将注意力从反特朗普言论转向其他任何事情。
Whether Democrats focus on anti-Trump retaliation or on rebuilding the economy and regaining voter trust will shape the Republicans’ ability to make a comeback. Retaliation will give Trump another chance at survival, but Democrats will have little incentive to shift their focus to anything other than anti-Trump rhetoric if they insist on keeping their current leadership as it is, without any radical shift against their donor class and wealthy elites.
上周二是一场历史性事件，我在竞选路上十多年来从未见过。这场胜利使民主党为美国人民取得真正成功的道路变得复杂，尤其是考虑到特朗普的否决权。最重要的是，共和党的未来将取决于民主党能否制定出不依赖于反特朗普的自身战略。从某种意义上说，民主党需要特朗普——并且需要他继续失败——才能延续这一连胜势头。共和党人需要自己决定是否需要他，以及他们的党派未来是否将围绕一个人的个性展开。
Last Tuesday was a historic event the likes of which I have not seen in more than a decade on the campaign trail. This victory complicates the Democrats’ path to achieving real success for the American people, especially given Trump’s veto power. More than anything else, the future of the Republican Party will be determined by the ability of the Democrats to come up with their own strategy that is not dependent on being anti-Trump. In some ways, the Democrats need Trump – and need him to keep failing – in order for them to continue this winning streak. It will be up to Republicans to decide on their own whether they need him or not, and whether their party’s future will centre on the personality of one man.