共和党在中期选举中失去对美国参议院的控制权，可能对唐纳德·特朗普总统的司法议程产生深远影响，威胁到他重塑联邦法院的能力，并给最高法院6比3保守派多数的未来带来新的疑问。
Republicans' loss of the U.S. Senate in the midterm elections could have far-reaching consequences for President Donald Trump's judicial agenda, threatening his ability to reshape the federal courts and raising new questions about the future of the Supreme Court's 6-3 conservative majority.
随着民主党定于明年1月接管参议院，共和党确认特朗普司法提名人选的窗口正在缩小，而未来最高法院一旦出现空缺，总统可能不得不依赖民主党的支持才能任命继任者。
With Democrats set to take control of the Senate in January, Republicans face a shrinking window to confirm Trump's judicial nominees, while any future Supreme Court vacancy could leave the president dependent on Democratic support to install a replacement.
《无法无天的法律战》一书作者亚历克斯·斯沃耶告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，选举结果可能让最高法院最年长的几位保守派大法官在何时退休的问题上陷入艰难抉择。
"Lawless Lawfare" author Alex Swoyer told Fox News Digital, the election results could leave the court's oldest conservative justices with a difficult decision over when to retire.
斯沃耶说：“随着民主党接管，这些大法官——主要是托马斯大法官和阿利托大法官——很可能至少还要在最高法院待上六年。两人都已年近八旬，我能理解他们为什么可能想现在、在中期选举后就退休。”克拉伦斯·托马斯大法官78岁，塞缪尔·阿利托大法官76岁，是最高法院两位最年长的保守派大法官，在共和党准备失去参议院控制权之际，他们的退休决定因此尤为关键。
"It's likely the justices — mainly Justices Thomas and Alito — are stuck on the high court for at least six more years with Democrats taking control," Swoyer said. "Both in their late 70s, I could see why they may want to retire now, midterm." Justice Clarence Thomas, 78, and Justice Samuel Alito, 76, are the court's two oldest conservatives, making their retirement decisions particularly consequential as Republicans prepare to lose control of the Senate.
不过，阿利托周四向福克斯新闻证实，他没有退休计划，并承诺至少任职到本届最高法院开庭期结束。大法官们预计将在6月底或7月初结束主要裁决。
Alito, however, confirmed to Fox News on Thursday that he has no plans to retire and is committed to serving through at least the current Supreme Court term, with the justices expected to wrap up their major decisions in late June or early July.
斯沃耶说：“2020年参议院共和党人曾在一个月内确认了巴雷特大法官，但我认为这次共和党参议院没有同样的工作劲头，也没有能力在1月之前推动提名人选过关。”
"While Senate Republicans were able to confirm Justice Barrett in a one month timeframe in 2020, I don't think this GOP Senate has that same work ethic or ability to push a nominee through ahead of January," Swoyer said.
“我认为保守派会希望看到他们尝试这么做；不过，一位司法提名专家告诉我，假期前参议院的工作日程不会给他们足够的时间，”她补充说。“虽然五周的时间窗口似乎可行，但参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩目前似乎没有足够的支持来推动这样的举动。”利害关系不仅限于最高法院。截至11月8日，联邦司法系统有28个空缺，有16名被提名人正在等待确认，以填补当前和未来的空缺，这使得共和党人在民主党人控制参议院之前推进特朗普人选的时间有限。
"I think conservatives would like to see them try; however, a judicial nominations expert told me the Senate work calendar ahead of the holidays would not afford them enough time," she added. "While a five week window seems workable, it doesn't appear like Senate Majority Leader John Thune would have the support to usher such a move at this time." The stakes extend beyond the Supreme Court. As of Nov. 8, the federal judiciary had 28 vacancies, with 16 nominees awaiting confirmation for current and future vacancies, leaving Republicans with limited time to advance Trump's picks before Democrats take control of the Senate.
传统基金会法院与宪法高级法律研究员扎克·史密斯表示，共和党人应专注于在多数党地位到期前确认特朗普剩余的下级法院提名人。
Zack Smith, a senior legal fellow for courts and the Constitution at the Heritage Foundation, said Republicans should focus on confirming Trump's remaining lower-court nominees before their majority expires.
“参议院共和党人现在的首要任务应该是确认特朗普总统已经提名的下级联邦法院法官。这需要所有参议员出席并尽自己的一份力量。但这是可能的，”史密斯对福克斯新闻数字频道说。
"The top priority for Senate Republicans right now should be confirming the lower federal court judges President Trump has already nominated. It will take all Senators showing up and doing their part. But it is possible," Smith told Fox News Digital.
“至于最高法院，即使某位大法官今天宣布退休，在当前参议院结束前确认继任者也可能很困难，尽管参议院共和党领导层已表示愿意尝试。然而，阿利托大法官和托马斯大法官都没有表示有任何退休计划。”围绕托马斯和阿利托的不确定性，与围绕已故自由派大法官鲁斯·巴德·金斯伯格的争论如出一辙。金斯伯格在2014年中期选举前顶住了要求她退休的呼声，尽管有人担心共和党人可能控制参议院，从而使确认奥巴马任命的继任者变得更加复杂。
"As for the Supreme Court, even if a Justice announced his or her retirement today, it could prove difficult to get a replacement confirmed before the end of the current Senate, although Senate Republican leadership has indicated a willingness to try. However, neither Justice Alito nor Justice Thomas has indicated any plan to retire." The uncertainty surrounding Thomas and Alito echoes the debate over the late liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who resisted calls to retire before the 2014 midterms despite concerns that Republicans could take control of the Senate and complicate efforts to confirm an Obama-appointed successor.
共和党人在2014年赢得参议院，两年后，在安东宁·斯卡利亚大法官去世后，他们拒绝考虑奥巴马的最高法院提名人梅里克·加兰。特朗普赢得2016年大选，并于2017年任命尼尔·戈萨奇填补斯卡利亚的席位。
Republicans won the Senate in 2014 and, two years later, refused to consider Obama's Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland, following Justice Antonin Scalia's death. Trump won the 2016 election and appointed Neil Gorsuch to Scalia's seat in 2017.
金斯伯格一直在最高法院任职到2020年9月去世，当时距离总统大选仅剩几周。特朗普提名艾米·科尼·巴雷特接替她的职务，由共和党控制的参议院在选举日前几天确认了巴雷特的任命。
Ginsburg remained on the bench until her death in September 2020, just weeks before the presidential election. Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to replace her, and the Republican-controlled Senate confirmed Barrett days before Election Day.
巴雷特的任命使保守派在最高法院占据了6比3的多数优势，这一力量对比塑造了该国一些最重大的法律裁决，其中包括2022年推翻“罗诉韦德案”的裁决。
Barrett's confirmation gave conservatives a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, a balance that has shaped some of the nation's most consequential legal decisions, including the 2022 ruling overturning Roe v. Wade.