过去两年里，特朗普总统犯下了一个巨大的错误：他把自己在2024年令人印象深刻的连任逆转，误读为公众授权他随心所欲地推进他所认定的国家利益，甚至将其作为一种自我膨胀的工具。他在未征求国会意见、也未听取自己部分国家安全顾问判断的情况下，只采纳符合他自己直觉的建议。他以高效、零伤亡的行动从委内瑞拉抓捕独裁者马杜罗取得成功，似乎让他确信，这种模式可以在伊朗以稍大规模复制。
For the last two years, President Trump has made the colossal mistake of misinterpreting his impressive re-election comeback in 2024 as a public mandate to do whatever he wanted to advance the national interest as he saw it, even as a form of self-aggrandizement. Without input from Congress or the judgement of some of his own national security advisers, he heeded only the advice that already matched his own instincts. The success of his operation to seize dictator Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela in an efficient and casualty-free strike seemed to have convinced him that it could be replicated on a somewhat larger scale in Iran.
伊朗军队和伊斯兰革命卫队远比委内瑞拉军队和警察强大得多，这一事实并未阻止他的执念。伊朗存在一支高度积极、活跃的平民反对派，或许被视为胜利的保证——他只需号召他们像奥巴马政府时期那样站起来。他暗示，与奥巴马不同，他将以美国军力回应。“援助正在路上，”他承诺道。不幸的是，民众起义、美国轰炸行动以及相关军事和信息行动之间，并无实际的协调或整合。
The fact that the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were far more formidable than the Venezuelan army and police did not dissuade him from his quest. The existence of a highly motivated and active civilian opposition in Iran was perhaps seen as a guarantee of victory — he needed only to call upon them to rise up, as they had during the Obama administration. Unlike Obama, he implied, he would respond with U.S military power. “Help is on its way,” he promised. Unfortunately, there was no actual coordination or integration between the citizen uprising, the U.S. bombing campaign, and related military and information operations.
结果酿成了一场巨大的悲剧：数万名手无寸铁的抗议者在政权屠杀下丧生，而美国却袖手旁观。这场由美国引发的惨败严重损害了美国的信誉，并让未来与伊朗民众的合作变得更加困难。民主党在上周中期选举中占据上风的一个主要因素，是特朗普在伊朗战争中的反复无常，以及其对国内能源价格和美国通胀造成的负面影响。
As a monumentally tragic result, tens of thousands of defenseless protesters were killed by the regime as America stood by. The U.S.-caused debacle has severely damaged America’s credibility and made future cooperation with the Iranian people more difficult. A major factor in the Democrats' ascendancy in last week’s midterm elections was Trump’s erratic conduct in the Iran war and its negative impact on domestic energy prices and U.S. inflation.
反对特朗普这场“自选战争”的声浪日益高涨，很大程度上源于它与他长期以来强烈反对“无休止的战争”——尤其是中东战争——以及他承诺的“全面不发动新战争”形成了戏剧性的反差。
The growing opposition to Trump’s “war of choice" stems in large part from its dramatic contrast to his longstanding and vociferous opposition to “endless wars,” especially in the Mideast, and his pledge of “no new wars” across the board.
大多数民主党人和部分共和党人的本能反应是立即结束战争。但那些听从这种呼吁、主张屈辱性撤退的人——这将是美国敌人眼中的样子——可能会因自己鲁莽的行动而加剧特朗普轻率挑起战争的后果——如何结束与伊朗的敌对状态至关重要。如果美国就这样离开，任由好战的伊斯兰政权继续掌权、自由推进核野心、残酷压迫本国民众，并对其邻国和美国主导的国际秩序采取激进行动，特朗普或其继任者很快就不得不再次面对伊朗的威胁。
The knee-jerk reaction among most Democrats and some Republicans is to bring the war to an immediate end. But those who heed that call for humiliating retreat, which is how America’s enemies will see it, risk compounding Trump’s careless warmaking by their own rash actions — how the Iran hostilities are ended matters greatly. If the U.S. walks away from the situation, leaving the aggressive Islamist regime in power, free to advance its nuclear ambitions, criminally oppress its population, and move aggressively against its neighbors and the U.S.-led international order, Trump or his successor will soon need to confront Iran’s threat all over again, Instead, Democrats should take advantage of the political interregnum and approach Trump now, proposing a cooperative, bipartisan plan to end the conflict with Iran by ending the regime that is its perennial cause.
相反，民主党人应利用这一政治过渡期，现在就接触特朗普，提出一个合作性的两党方案，通过终结作为长期祸根的伊朗政权来结束与伊朗的冲突。该方案需要安抚并协调伊朗反对派以及美国的欧洲和中东盟友。在将动能行动降至最低的前提下，该方案应依靠大幅加强的经济压力和综合特种行动，开展信息战、支持大规模民众起义，并有选择地武装民众中的特定力量。
This plan will require reassuring and coordinating with the Iranian opposition and with America’s European and Mideast allies. With a minimum of kinetic action, the plan should rely on heavily increased economic pressure and on integrated special operations to conduct information warfare, support a mass civilian uprising and selectively arm elements within the population.
一位总统和一个国会若在和平政权更迭这一目标上新近团结一致、斗志昂扬，将极大地提升伊朗大规模倒戈以及政权分裂瓦解的前景。这种在伊朗政权更迭问题上的两党合作，将消除伊朗和美国对霍尔木兹海峡能源供应自由流通的一切限制，并消除通胀和负担不起的一个主要成因。这也将为未来两年总统与国会在一系列内外交困问题上的合作预示良好开端，并为各方赢得持久的荣誉。
A U.S. president and a Congress newly unified and invigorated in the objective of peaceful regime change would greatly enhance the prospect of mass Iranian defections and the regime’s splintering and collapse. Such bipartisan cooperation on regime change in Iran would remove all Iranian and U.S. constraints on the free flow of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and eliminate a major cause of inflation and unaffordability. It would also augur well for presidential-congressional partnership on a range of issues, both foreign and domestic, over the next two years and redound to the lasting credit of all parties.
最后，特朗普与国会的突破将展示民主固有的自我纠错本质：当人民的声音和选票要求其选出的领导人合作时，民主便能从党派分裂、怨恨与愤怒的废墟中重生。重燃二战时期两党团结与民主韧性的精神，将抹去伊朗、中国共产党、朝鲜和俄罗斯等专制领导人那种虚张声势的窃笑——他们过早地庆祝美国民主模式的消亡。自由世界必将欢迎统一的美国领导力回归。
Finally, a Trump-Congress breakthrough would demonstrate the inherent self-correcting nature of democracy when the voices and votes of the people demand cooperation from their chosen leaders, out of the ashes of partisan division, bitterness and anger. Rekindling the World War II spirit of bipartisan unity and democratic resilience would erase the virtual smirking of the authoritarian leaders in Iran, Communist China, North Korea and Russia, who prematurely celebrated the demise of America’s democratic model. And the Free World will surely welcome the return of unified American leadership.
约瑟夫·博斯科曾于2005年至2006年担任国防部长中国事务主任，2009年至2010年担任亚太地区人道主义援助与灾难救援主任。他是韩美研究所非常驻研究员、全球台湾研究所顾问委员会成员以及范登堡联盟顾问委员会成员。
Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He is a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies, a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute and member of the advisory board of the Vandenberg Coalition.