石油的“和平交易”可能面临残酷的觉醒 陈雅文 2026年11月10日 上午9：17 GMT-3 插图中所见的石油桶。
Oil's peace trade risks a rude awakening Yawen Chen November 10, 2026 9:17 AM GMT-3 Oil barrels are seen in this illustration.
路透伦敦11月10日电 - 投资者对石油有了新的悲观看法。自10月下旬以来，布伦特原油价格已暴跌超过五分之一，即每桶近30美元，跌破每桶90美元。交易员似乎在押注，民主党在美国中期选举中的大胜将迫使总统唐纳德·特朗普明确结束伊朗战争。鉴于副总统JD·万斯直言不讳地将共和党的选举失败归咎于这场冲突，而特朗普本人也已表示目前没有必要进行进一步的大规模打击，这种押注合乎逻辑。但也为时过早。
Rights opens new tab LONDON, Nov 10 - Investors have a new downer on oil. Since late October, Brent crude prices have plunged more than a fifth - or nearly $30 a barrel - to below $90 a barrel. Traders seem to be betting that the Democrats' thumping victory in US midterm elections will pressure President Donald Trump to bring a definite end to the Iran war. Given Vice President JD Vance has pointedly blamed the conflict for Republicans' electoral defeat and Trump himself has signalled that further major strikes are unnecessary for now, that's logical. It's also premature.
这轮抛售有一些基本面依据。根据General Index的数据，迪拜原油11月掉期合约（参照1月装船的石油）相对12月合约处于贴水状态，这表明尽管霍尔木兹海峡持续受到干扰，近期供应压力已有所缓解。研究机构Rystad Energy认为，一个关键原因是，目前经霍尔木兹海峡的海湾石油流量仅比战前水平低20%。
The selloff has some fundamental basis. Dubai crude's November swap, which references oil loading in January, is trading at a discount to the December contract, according to General Index data, suggesting that pressure on near-term supplies has eased despite continuing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. A key reason is that Gulf flows through Hormuz are now only 20% less than their pre-war level, research outfit Rystad Energy reckons.
然而，政治局势仍表明，油价应远高于战前每桶70美元的水平。特朗普不愿进一步打击，这对于解决与德黑兰在核问题、制裁以及霍尔木兹海峡通行问题上的争端几乎没有帮助。德黑兰希望在任何其他谈判之前先解除美国的海上封锁，而华盛顿坚持先解决这些问题——双方似乎都不愿放弃对霍尔木兹的控制。
Yet the political situation still suggests prices should hover far above their $70 a barrel pre-war level. Trump's willingness to avoid further strikes does little to resolve the disputes with Tehran over nuclear, sanctions and passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran wants the US naval blockade lifted before negotiating anything else, while Washington insists on addressing those first - with neither side appearing willing to give up Hormuz control.
中期选举的结束甚至可能让和解变得更加渺茫。伊朗可能认为，特朗普地位被削弱，使德黑兰几乎没有理由妥协，尤其是在民主党准备于明年1月掌控国会的情况下。与此同时，特朗普政府可能会寻求在回旋余地收窄之前展示军事决心。吕斯塔德认为，这段过渡期可能成为冲突再度升级的窗口。
The end of the midterms could even make a settlement more elusive. Iran may calculate that Trump's weakened position gives it little reason to compromise, particularly with Democrats poised to control Congress in January. The Trump administration, meanwhile, may seek to demonstrate military resolve before its room for manoeuvre narrows. Rystad sees the intervening period as a potential window for renewed escalation.
当前的僵局也为伊朗制造了提高赌注的经济动机。美国的封锁正在扼杀伊朗的石油出口，而海湾地区石油出口的恢复和原油价格的下跌让竞争对手受益，并削弱了德黑兰向华盛顿施压的能力。进一步袭击石油基础设施和航运，可能恢复部分筹码。
The current stalemate also creates economic incentives for Iran to raise the stakes. The US blockade is strangling its oil exports, while recovering Gulf shipments and falling crude prices have benefited competitors and diminished Tehran's ability to exert pressure on Washington. Further attacks on oil infrastructure and shipping could restore some of that leverage.
与此同时，石油贸易远未恢复正常。汇丰表示，海湾产油国仍依赖昂贵的绕行管道、船对船转运和更长的油轮航程，运往亚洲的运费超过每桶30美元。炼油仍是一个重大担忧，尽管随着俄罗斯出口恢复和其他炼油厂增加出货量，更多燃料正在进入市场。分析师Vortexa称，西北欧柴油炼油利润率仍在每桶90美元左右，反映出大西洋库存已耗尽。
Meanwhile, the oil trade is far from normal. Gulf producers still rely on costly bypass pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers and longer tanker voyages, with freight to Asia exceeding $30 a barrel, according to HSBC. Refining remains a big concern, even as more fuel is reaching the market as Russian exports recover and other refiners increase shipments. Northwest European diesel refining margins were still around $90 a barrel, reflecting depleted Atlantic inventories according to analyst Vortexa.
国际能源署估计，9月中东成品油出口量仅为战前水平的40%，这使得燃料市场在原油供应趋于宽松之际依然脆弱。摩根大通估计，随着市场恢复过剩，库存正在重建，但此前自2月以来库存已减少逾5亿桶。国际能源署称，这使陆上库存降至至少十年来的最低水平。
The International Energy Agency estimates that Middle Eastern refined product exports were only 40% of pre-war levels in September, leaving fuel markets vulnerable even as crude supplies loosen. And while JPMorgan estimates that inventories are rebuilding as the market returns to surplus, that follows a draw-down of more than 500 million barrels since February, which left onshore stocks at their lowest levels in at least a decade, according to the IEA.
当前外交层面的新闻标题和实物层面的过剩让交易员有理由乐观。如果新一轮战斗扰乱海湾地区生产，这种乐观可能迅速消失。
The current diplomatic headline and physical surplus give traders grounds for optimism. That could quickly disappear if another round of fighting disrupts Gulf production.
11月10日，油价延续前一交易日的跌势，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普淡化了针对伊朗采取进一步军事行动的必要性，缓解了市场对中东供应持续中断的担忧，同时供应过剩的前景也受到关注。
Context News Oil prices extended losses from the previous session on November 10 after US President Donald Trump downplayed the need for additional military action against Iran, easing fears of sustained Middle East supply disruptions, with prospects of oversupply also in focus.
截至11月10日格林尼治时间09:30，布伦特原油期货下跌2.39美元，跌幅2.58%，报每桶90.18美元。美国西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货下跌2.11美元，跌幅2.43%，报84.74美元。
Brent crude futures were down $2.39, or 2.58% at $90.18 a barrel by 0930 GMT on November 10. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell $2.11, or 2.43% to $84.74.
特朗普11月9日表示，在包括卡塔尔首相在内的地区国家提出呼吁后，他计划暂不对伊朗发动新的军事打击。
Trump said on November 9 that he plans to hold off from new military strikes against Iran after appeals from countries in the region, including from Qatar's prime minister.
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