根据一家领先学术智库的预测，由于伊朗战争引发的工资二轮效应，英格兰央行将无法在2030年前让通胀回到目标水平，该智库同时也上调了其经济增长前景。
国家经济社会研究院（NIESR）周二预测，通胀将在2027年2月达到4.4%的峰值，高于其7月预测的3.8%，在2027年、2028年和2029年超出英格兰央行2%的目标，直到2029年底才回到目标水平，比此前预测晚了一年。
The Bank of England will not succeed in returning inflation to target before 2030, driven by second-round effects on wages caused by the Iran war, according to forecasts from a leading academic think-tank which also nudged up its outlook for growth.
“英国经济今年的表现比我们预期的要好，但现在面临能源价格上涨和全球借贷成本上升的双重打击，” NIESR主任大卫·艾克曼说。“货币政策和财政政策如何应对是国内的选择，而在这两个方面，决策都在被推迟。”
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research on Tuesday forecast inflation will peak at 4.4% in February 2027, up from 3.8% in its previous forecast in July, overshooting the BoE's 2% target in 2027, 2028 and 2029, before returning to target in late 2030, a year later than previously forecast.
NIESR预测英国经济2026年将增长1.6%，高于此前预测的1.1%，反映了政府支出和企业投资的增强，部分由人工智能驱动。增长预计将在2027年放缓至1.1%，2028年进一步放缓至0.9%。失业率预计将从2026年的4.8%逐步上升，在2031年达到5.1%的峰值，未来三年工资增长平均将达到3.9%。
"The UK economy has held up better than we expected this year, but it now faces the double whammy of higher energy prices and rising global borrowing costs," NIESR Director David Aikman said.
NIESR表示，财政大臣约翰·希利10月的预算案对加强公共财政作用不大，因为在税收和支出方面的艰难决定在很大程度上被推迟了，削减借贷的计划缺乏可信度。
"How monetary and fiscal policy respond to them is a domestic choice, and on both fronts decisions are being deferred."
投资者预计到明年底将加息两到三次，每次25个基点，但NIESR预计英格兰央行只会加息一次，即在2月。NIESR称，英格兰央行需要将借贷成本提高到5%左右，才能在中期内让通胀回到目标。
英格兰央行上周将利率从3.75%提高到4%，这是三年多来的首次加息。
NIESR forecasts the UK economy will grow 1.6% in 2026, up from a previous forecast of 1.1%, reflecting stronger government spending and business investment, partly driven by AI Growth is expected to slow to 1.1% in 2027 and 0.9% in 2028 The jobless rate is projected to gradually rise from 4.8% in 2026 to peak at 5.1% in 2031, and wage growth to average 3.9% over the coming three years Finance minister John Healey's October budget did little to strengthen the public finances as difficult decisions on tax and spending had largely been deferred and plans to reduce borrowing lacked credibility, NIESR said Investors are pricing in two or three quarter-point rate hikes by the end of next year, but NIESR expects the BoE to raise interest rates only once, in February The BoE would need to raise borrowing costs to around 5% to bring inflation back to target in the medium term, NIESR said The BoE raised interest rates to 4% from 3.75% last week, its first rate increase in more than three years