随着英国通胀率逼近 4%，且伊朗战争仍无结束迹象，英国央行周四加息几乎已成定局。英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利及其同事究竟还会加息多少次，则是经济学家和投资者分歧最尖锐之处。
With UK inflation heading toward 4% and no end to the Iran war in sight, a Bank of England interest-rate hike on Thursday is seen as all but a done deal. How many more Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues deliver is where economists and investors sharply diverge.
在第一种情景下，英国央行在自 2023 年以来首次加息后，将在明夏结束前再加息三次。英国经济增长韧性十足、劳动力市场趋于稳定，且能源冲击在近几周进一步恶化，迫使货币政策委员会将基准利率提升至至少 4.75% —— 这一结果自 9 月初以来已被货币市场计价。
In the first scenario, the UK central bank follows up its first rate rise since 2023 with a further three by the end of next summer. Resilient UK growth, a stabilizing labor market and an energy shock that has only worsened in recent weeks force the Monetary Policy Committee to lift bank rate to at least 4.75% — an outcome priced by money markets since early September.
另一种情景 —— 即经济学家的共识观点 —— 指向本周将利率升至 4%，随后在 2027 年第一季度再加息一次的几率仅为五五开。消费者开始勒紧裤腰带的迹象，以及目前几乎没有证据表明能源冲击已引发价格反馈循环，均支撑这一判断。
The alternative scenario — the consensus held by economists — points to a move to 4% this week and then only a 50-50 chance of a second hike in the first quarter of 2027. That case is bolstered by signs consumers are starting to tighten their belts and little evidence yet that the energy shock is triggering a feedback loop in prices.
如果决策者抵制长期紧缩周期，英国政府债券可能反弹，尤其是收益率已触及三年高位的短期债券。另外，鉴于当前市场计价通过推高家庭和企业借贷成本帮助其对抗通胀，英格兰银行也可能让投资者继续等待关于未来利率的更强烈信号。
If policymakers push back against a prolonged tightening cycle, UK government bonds could rally, particularly shorter maturities where yields have hit their highest in three years. Alternatively, the BOE could leave investors waiting for a stronger signal on future rates given that current market pricing is helping it fight inflation by pushing up borrowing costs for households and businesses.
“所有人都预期能源价格会下跌，并以此为基础制定通胀和银行利率预测，”凯投宏观首席英国经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示。“这就是为什么经济学家普遍预期不会有太多加息，且利率会回落。但我们身处这样一个世界：如果能源价格维持在这些水平再过六个月左右，那么利率很可能会更高。”美国银行公司的策略师表示，市场定价与其自身经济学家对英国央行基准利率预测之间存在0.55个百分点的差距，这是主要经济体中最大的差距之一。
“Everyone’s been expecting energy prices to come down and been basing their inflation and bank rate forecasts off that,” said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics. “That is why economists, by and large, don’t have many interest-rate hikes and have rates coming back down. But we’re in this world where if energy prices stay at these levels for another six months or so, then interest rates probably will be higher.”Strategists at Bank of America Corp said that the 0.55 percentage point gap between market pricing and their own economists’ forecasts for Bank rate is one of the largest among major economies.
英国央行表示，投资者因利率前景风险加大而要求风险补偿，这在一定程度上解释了市场收益率曲线之所以激进。但即使是其最鹰派的决策者之一、首席经济学家休·皮尔也警告称，他对需要加息四次持“怀疑”态度。
The BOE has said investors demanding compensation for heightened risk over the outlook for rates partly explains the aggressiveness of the market curve. But even one of its most hawkish policymakers, chief economist Huw Pill, has warned he was “skeptical” four interest-rate rises would be needed.
美国银行和花旗集团的利率策略师将其归因于能源价格持续上涨的风险、伊朗战争没有结束的风险，以及英国经济持续表现出超预期的强劲。国内生产总值（GDP）在8月意外实现连续第三个月增长，指向第三季度扩张幅度远超英国央行7月预测的0.1%。
BofA and Citigroup rates strategists put it down to risks that energy prices continue rising, that there is no end to the Iran war and that the UK economy continues to prove stronger-than-expected. GDP unexpectedly grew for a third month in August, pointing to a third-quarter expansion that far exceeds the 0.1% forecast by the BOE in July.
布朗兄弟哈里曼全球市场策略主管埃利亚斯·哈达德表示，这使得英国央行围绕市场定价的沟通，以及其随附的通胀和英国经济预测，成为“评估本周之后进一步加息空间的关键”。
That leaves the BOE’s communication around market pricing, plus its accompanying forecasts for inflation and the UK economy, “key to assess the scope of more hikes beyond this week,” said Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
包括马克·卡普尔顿在内的美国银行策略师表示，若对“过度”的市场定价进行反驳，英国收益率曲线可能出现“牛市陡峭化”，即短期债券收益率下降幅度大于长期债券。
Any pushback on “excessive” market pricing, BofA strategists including Mark Capleton said, and there could be a “bull steepening” in the UK curve, as yields on shorter bonds fall by more relative to longer ones.
在市场对财政大臣约翰·希利的首份预算案上周基本置之不理后，英格兰银行（BOE）或许也希望本次决策平稳无波澜。受押注多次加息推动的金融条件收紧，使英格兰银行得以避免加息，从而落后于美联储和欧洲央行。
After markets largely shrugged off Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey’s debut budget last week, the BOE may also hope for a drama-free decision. Tighter financial conditions driven by bets on multiple hikes have allowed the BOE to refrain from raising rates, leaving it behind both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
然而，决策者清楚，预期最终需要以行动作为支撑，或予以重新调整。贝利曾在春季出面干预，给市场押注泼冷水，当时交易员预期最多将加息四次。
However, policymakers know that expectations ultimately need to be backed up by action or realigned. Bailey did intervene over the spring to pour cold water on market wagers when traders were pricing in as many as four hikes.
贝利和副行长萨拉·布里登均指出，有迹象显示企业正通过削减成本来消化能源冲击，而非转嫁涨价。这甚至是在英格兰银行上周发布一份出人意料地偏鸽派的私营部门企业调查之前。
Bailey and Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden have both pointed to signs that firms are cutting costs to absorb the energy shock rather than pass on price increases. That was even before a surprisingly dovish BOE survey of private-sector firms last week.
在消费者承压之下，许多企业发现很难提价，且目前受访高管中极少有人计划明年因通胀冲击而大幅上调工资——这是二轮效应迄今仍然有限的信号。
With consumers under pressure, many are finding it hard to raise prices, and few executives polled so far plan to bump up wages next year in response to the inflation shock — a sign that second-round effects so far remain limited.
“货币政策委员会（MPC）很可能会温和地对市场定价施加回压，”法国巴黎银行经济学家丹尼·斯托伊洛娃表示。决策者“很可能会依靠英国金融条件收紧以及二轮效应证据有限，来为一条不那么激进的路径提供理由”。
“The MPC is likely to gently push back on market pricing,” said Dani Stoilova, economist at BNP Paribas. Policymakers are “likely to lean on the tightening in UK financial conditions and limited evidence of second-round effects to justify a less aggressive path.”