今年大部分时间里，英格兰银行认为利率可能已经足够高，足以抑制通胀。现在它不那么确定了。
For most of this year, the Bank of England argued that interest rates were probably high enough to bear down on inflation. Now it’s not so sure.
在周四的会议之前，货币政策委员会预计将自2023年以来首次提高借贷成本，官员们一直在为一个具有标志性的问题苦思冥想：对英国经济来说，什么样的利率才是本质上中性的，既不刺激也不紧缩？
Ahead of Thursday’s meeting, when the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to raise borrowing costs for the first time since 2023, officials have been grappling with a totemic question: what rate of interest is essentially neutral, neither stimulative nor restrictive, for the UK economy?
由于人工智能竞赛推动的投资激增，政策制定者越来越相信，R星——即理论上的利率——现在比过去更高。其含义是，利率需要比之前认为的更紧，才能将通胀维持在英格兰银行2%的目标。
Surging investment, much of it due to the AI race, has increasingly convinced policymakers that R-star — as the theoretical rate’s also known — is now higher than it was. The implication is that interest rates need to be tighter than previously thought to keep inflation at the bank’s 2% target.
美国与伊朗战争引发的能源冲击预计将推动明年初消费者物价通胀升至4%以上，而英国经济出人意料的强劲增长，也加强了利率不足以抑制成本压力的论点。
The energy shock from the US-Iran war is projected to push consumer-price inflation above 4% early next year, and the UK economy’s surprisingly strong growth has bolstered the case that rates are not high enough to rein in cost pressures.
“如果你看看投资周期，特别是人工智能周期所发生的事情，我们是否因此看到所谓的R星和中性利率上升？”英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利上个月在曼谷国际金融学院小组讨论会上思考道。
“If you take what’s going on with the investment cycle, particularly with the AI cycle, are we seeing as a consequence of that an increase in so-called R-star and the neutral rate of interest?”Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey pondered at an Institute of International Finance panel in Bangkok last month.
这为贝利和他的同行政策制定者在本周做出决定之前提出了棘手的问题。经济学家和投资者预计，11月5日将加息四分之一个百分点至4%，这是未来一年内多次加息中的第一次。美联储和欧洲央行已经收紧了政策，并预计将继续这样做。
It raises difficult questions for Bailey and his fellow policymakers as they prepare for this week’s decision. Economists and investors expect a quarter-point hike to 4% on Nov. 5, the first of several over the coming year. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have already tightened policy and are expected to keep going.
前英格兰银行决策者、现任对冲基金千禧资本副主席扬·弗利格赫态度明确。他在9月24日国家经济与社会研究所的活动上表示，R星目前约为3.5%，只要能源价格居高不下，利率就需要达到4.5%。
Jan Vlieghe, a former BOE rate-setter and now a vice chairman at hedge fund Millennium, is unequivocal. Speaking at a National Institute of Economic and Social Research event on Sept. 24, he suggested that R-star is currently about 3.5% and rates need to be 4.5% as long as energy prices are elevated.
“面对能源冲击，经济表现出的韧性远超大多数人，包括我本人在内的预期，”弗莱格表示。“经济更具韧性、通胀下行幅度更小，这与过去一年左右的政策立场此前我们认为的要宽松得多相符。”尽管汽油价格、抵押贷款利率和能源账单大幅上涨，英国经济依然运转良好。
“The economy has turned out much more resilient than most people, including me, expected in the face of the energy shock,” Vlieghe said. “A more resilient economy and less disinflation is consistent with the policy stance over the past year or so having been less restrictive than we previously thought.”Despite a sharp increase in motor fuel prices, mortgage rates and energy bills, the UK economy is whirring.
截至8月的三个月内，经济增长达到可观的0.7%，劳动力市场在经历两年下滑后出现稳定迹象。失业率降至4.7%，为2025年年中以来的最低水平，雇主在9月增加了1.3万个就业岗位。
Growth in the three months through August was a respectable 0.7% and the labor market is showing signs of stabilizing after a two-year downturn. Unemployment fell to 4.7%, the lowest level since mid-2025, and employers added 13,000 jobs in September.
上半年，英国经济增长与美国持平，并超越其他所有七国集团伙伴，人工智能投资估计做出了显著贡献。
UK growth matched the US and outpaced all other Group of Seven peers in the first half, with AI investment estimated to have made a significant contribution.
贝利透露，在中东冲突爆发之前，他原本预计今年将降息两次。然而，利率目前仍维持在3.75%。
Bailey revealed that, before the Middle East conflict erupted, he expected rates to be cut twice this year. Instead, they remain at 3.75%.
弗莱格在任职委员会的六年中属于较为鸽派的成员之一，因此他发出的鹰派警告尤为引人注目。目前的货币政策委员会鹰派成员，如首席经济学家休·皮尔和外部委员梅根·格林，对此出人意料地表示同意。
Vlieghe was one of the more dovish members of the committee during his six years, which makes his hawkish warning all the more striking. Current MPC hawks such as chief economist Huw Pill and external member Megan Greene unsurprisingly agree.
“中性利率更高，或许意味着你此前认为的政策限制程度并未达到预期，”皮尔在10月15日的“重塑布雷顿森林”活动上表示。“也许平均利率会略高一些。”格林表示，经济增长加快和就业市场更强劲，证明政策对通胀的抑制力度未如预期般强劲。
“A higher R-star means perhaps that you have been less restrictive than you thought,” Pill said at a Reinventing Bretton Woods event on Oct. 15. “Maybe rates, on average, will be that little bit higher.”Greene said faster growth and a stronger jobs market are proof that policy is not bearing down on inflation as much as thought.
认为当前中性利率更高的论点，既依赖于人工智能基础设施，也依赖于债务融资的政府支出。
The argument that the neutral rate of interest is higher today hinges on AI infrastructure, but also on debt-funded government spending.
穆迪预计，到2030年，超大规模云服务商将竞相投入约3万亿美元用于芯片和数据中心。与此同时，国际货币基金组织预测，七国集团国家的一般政府债务将从国内生产总值的94%增至102%，相当于按当前货币计算的约4.5万亿美元的借贷热潮，原因是各国在国防和老龄化人口方面的支出增加。
Around $3 trillion will be poured into chips and data centers by 2030 as hyperscalers race to beat their rivals, according to Moody’s. Meanwhile, G7 nations will increase general government debt to 102% from 94% of GDP — a borrowing spree of around $4.5 trillion in today’s money — the International Monetary Fund forecasts, as nations spend more on defense and ageing populations.
这种规模正在颠覆全球宏观经济力量。经济学家通过权衡储蓄与投资之间的平衡来推算中性利率。储蓄过剩意味着中性利率较低，而投资狂热则意味着相反。
The scale is upending global macroeconomic forces. Economists extrapolate the neutral rate by weighing up the balance between savings and investment. A glut of savings suggests a lower R-star, an investment frenzy implies the opposite.
“长期以来压低借贷成本的力量——储蓄充裕、投资机会稀缺以及世界信任美国充当其银行家——正在发生转变，”彭博社经济部全球经济主管杰米·拉什说。“像任何其他价格一样，资金的价格由供需决定。”TS Lombard全球经济学家达里奥·珀金斯本周指出，“人工智能投资热潮正迅速成为历史上最大的基础设施项目之一。”
“The forces that held borrowing costs low for a generation — an abundance of savings, a scarcity of investment opportunities and a world that trusted the US to be its banker — are shifting,” Jamie Rush, Bloomberg Economics’ director of global economics, said. “Like any other price, the price of money is set by supply and demand.”Dario Perkins, global economist at TS Lombard, noted this week that “the AI investment boom is rapidly becoming one of the largest infrastructure projects in history.”
谷歌DeepMind研究员芬·穆尔豪斯在社交媒体上的帖子称，美国数据中心部署速度占国内生产总值的比重，快于20世纪60年代的阿波罗太空计划，几乎相当于19世纪中叶的美国铁路热潮以及二战后马歇尔计划重建欧洲的规模。
The pace of US data center roll-out as a share of GDP is faster than the 1960s Apollo space program and almost equivalent to the mid-1800s US railroad boom and Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe after the Second World War, according posts on social media by Fin Moorhouse, a researcher at Google Deepmind.
“资金正在被花掉，”弗莱格说。自疫情以来，英国经济增长了6%，消费增长更为疲软，仅2%——但投资增长了16%，服务出口增长了41%，他说。
“Money is being spent,” said Vlieghe. Since the pandemic the UK economy has grown 6%, consumption an even more sluggish 2% — but investment is up 16% and services exports are up 41%, he said.
“出口和投资驱动的复苏有一种特点，使得全球因素在这里很可能发挥作用。”英国国民经济与社会研究所（NIESR）计算，今年英国基准借贷成本上升超过一半可归因于人工智能投资热潮以及投资者要求更高风险溢价，仅40%是对中东冲突导致能源成本上升的直接反应。
“There is something about an export and investment-driven recovery which makes it very likely that global factors here are at play.”More than half of the rise in the UK’s benchmark borrowing costs this year can be attributed to the AI investment boom and investors demanding higher premiums, NIESR has calculated. Only 40% is a direct response to higher energy costs from the Middle East conflict.
“这有点动摇了‘这只是暂时冲击’的观点，我们可能会从现在开始持续看到更高的利率，”NIESR所长戴维·艾克曼说。
“That casts a little bit of doubt on the idea that this is a temporary shock, and we may see higher interest rates persistently from here,” said NIESR director David Aikman.
英国央行上月对市场参与者的一项调查显示，中性利率的平均预估为3.25%。潘泰宏观经济学首席英国经济学家罗布·伍德表示，由美国联邦储备银行里士满分行设计的一个模型显示，英国的R星为3.75%，甚至可能更高。
A survey of market participants by the BOE last month put the average estimate of neutral at 3.25%. Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a model designed by the US Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond suggested the UK’s R-star is 3.75% and that it could even be higher.
无论利率是多少，日益形成的共识是，它已经上升，从政客到普通公众，每个人都需要适应新常态。
Whatever the rate is, the growing consensus is that it has risen and everyone – from politicians to the general public – needs to get used to the new normal.