
早上好。曾几何时,英格兰银行的利率公告(对我们大多数人来说)完全不为人知。这里小涨一点,那里微跌一点:直到2022年5月,利率连续13年未曾突破1%。
Good morning. There was a time when Bank of England interest rate announcements passed (most of us) by entirely unnoticed. A small rise here; a minor dip there: until May 2022, rates hadn’t climbed above 1% for 13 years.
现在不一样了。随着利率维持在3.75%——且预计将再次上调——央行的决策备受关注。不仅是财政部专家和交易员,求职者(高利率导致高失业率)以及现有和潜在的房贷持有者,都面临着大幅上涨的还款压力。
No longer. With rates stuck at 3.75% – and predicted to climb again – the Bank’s decisions are watched closely. Not just by Treasury wonks and trader types, but jobseekers (high rates see higher unemployment) and mortgage holders, both present and aspiring, faced with ramped-up repayments.
货币政策委员会每年审议利率八次。但尽管这一决策影响重大,其九名非民选成员独立运作,不向政府负责。如今,议会极具影响力的财政委员会已启动调查,审视这种关系。
Rates are reviewed eight times per year by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. But despite it being such a consequential call, its nine unelected members are independent and unaccountable to government. Now parliament’s influential Treasury Committee has launched an inquiry into this relationship.
当前的运作机制是怎样的?是否有替代方案?这就是今天《首版新闻》的主题。此外,我们邀请了三位杰出的进步派经济学家——科斯塔斯·拉帕维察斯、詹姆斯·米德韦和安·佩蒂福——阐述他们变革的主张。在此之前,先来看头条新闻。
How does the setup work today, and is there an alternative? That’s the subject of today’s First Edition. Plus, we asked three leading progressive economists – Costas Lapavitsas, James Meadway and Ann Pettifor to set out their case for change. Before that, the headlines.
五大要闻 欧洲新闻 | 警方向抗议者发射催泪弹,超过25万名中学生、教师和家长在法国各地示威,这是争取改善高中条件运动迄今规模最大的一天。
Five big stories Europe news | Police have fired teargas at protesters as more than 250,000 pupils, teachers and parents demonstrated across France on the biggest day yet of a campaign for better high school conditions.
英国新闻 | 约翰·希利计划在本月预算中大力干预,削减贫困家庭的能源账单,此前部长们对预测显示1月账单将上涨数百英镑感到震惊。
UK news | John Healey is planning a major intervention to cut energy bills for poorer households in this month’s budget, after ministers became alarmed at forecasts that show bills rising by hundreds of pounds in January.
埃博拉 | 肯尼亚报告首例埃博拉死亡病例,该疾病继续在刚果民主共和国(DRC)东北部迅速蔓延。
Ebola | Kenya has reported its first-ever Ebola death, as the disease continues to spread rapidly through the north-east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
英国新闻 | Meta因推出类Snapchat功能涉嫌违反英国数字安全法接受调查 气候危机 | 分析显示,Drax在北约克郡规划的数据中心每年排放量可能接近盖特威克机场所有航班排放总量的两倍深度报道:并非所有人都认为现状行之有效 英格兰银行自1997年以来拥有操作独立权。在之前的300年里,央行承担多种职能,包括向政府提供建议。
UK news | Meta is under investigation for a potential breach of the UK’s digital safety laws after launching a Snapchat-style feature on Climate crisis | Drax’s planned datacentre in North Yorkshire could produce nearly double the emissions of all flights out of Gatwick airport each year, an analysis has shown. In depth: Not everyone thinks the status quo is working The Bank of England has had operational independence since 1997. For 300 years previously, the Bank had many roles, including advising the government.
然而,利率由财政大臣决定。这种情况一直持续到戈登·布朗执政,他认为这种安排导致外界认为货币政策是由短期政治野心而非国家长远利益主导的。他并非孤例:到了20世纪90年代,央行独立已成为全球通行做法。
Interest rates were, however, decided by the Chancellor. That was until Gordon Brown, who believed this led to perceptions that short-term political ambition, not the country’s long-term interests, directed monetary policy. He wasn’t alone: by the 1990s, central bank independence had become the global norm.
央行肩负促进货币与金融稳定的使命。政府设定通胀目标(现为2%),央行制定旨在实现这一目标的利率。自2009年以来,央行还负责量化宽松(QE)和量化紧缩(QT)。
The Bank is tasked with promoting monetary and financial stability. The government dictates a target inflation rate (now 2%), and the Bank sets interest rates it hopes will help achieve this. Since 2009, the Bank has also been in charge of quantitative easing (QE) and tightening (QT).
英格兰银行独立论的主张颇具吸引力:限制无知、自私自利的议员的影响,将通胀治理交给专家。这仍是主流经济学智慧的核心。
The pitch for Bank of England independence was appealing: limit the influence of ignorant, self-serving MPs, and leave inflation to the experts. This remains integral to conventional economic wisdom.
且看似乎已取得成效。在央行独立的早期岁月里,英国通胀保持低位,平均为2.5%,远低于1967至1997年间的7.3%。但法国、德国、荷兰的通胀同样受到抑制。央行发挥了多大作用,多少归因于全球因素,尚无定论。可以肯定的是,在2022年初的经济危机中,英国面临G7最高通胀水平。过去五年大部分时间通胀高于目标,期间英国表现普遍逊于欧洲同行(尽管最新数据显示这一差距可能正在缩小)。
And, it appears to have succeeded. For many of the Bank’s early independent years, inflation in the UK remained low, averaging 2.5% compared to 7.3% between 1967 and 1997. But inflation was similarly restrained in France, Germany, the Netherlands. What impact the Bank had – and how much was the result of global factors – isn’t clear. Certainly, during the early 2022 economic crisis, the UK faced the highest inflation levels in the G7. Inflation has remained above target for most of the last five years, during which time we’ve generally fared worse than our European counterparts (though the most recent data suggests this may be levelling).
并非所有人都认为现状有效。2023年,英国上议院发布了一份报告(pdf),建议进行改革,例如限制英格兰银行的职责范围并加强监督。考虑到英国经济在过去三十年中经历了彻底的转型,越来越多的左翼经济学家呼吁政府采取更进一步的措施,限制英格兰银行的独立性,以全面改革其使命。在未来几个月内,这些论点将在财政部专门委员会面前展开讨论。
Not everyone thinks the status quo is working. In 2023, the House of Lords produced a report (pdf) recommending reforms, such as limiting the Bank’s remit and increasing scrutiny. Given the radical transformation the UK economy has made in the last three decades, a growing chorus of left-wing economists are calling for the government to go further and curtail independence to overhaul the Bank’s mandate. Over the coming months, these arguments will play out in front of the Treasury select committee.
现在,让我们听听专家们的观点……科斯塔斯·拉帕维塔斯:“货币是公共物品” 英格兰银行目前服务于金融城的利益。在2009年至2021年间,它将利率维持在极低水平,并大规模创造货币,购买了价值8950亿英镑的债券,其中绝大多数是政府债务。这种量化宽松政策通过推高房价和股价支撑了金融体系,而惠及我们所有人的生产性投资却停滞不前。
Now over to the experts …Costas Lapavitsas ‘Money is a public good’ The Bank of England currently serves the interests of the City. Between 2009 and 2021, it kept interest rates at rock bottom and created money on an enormous scale to buy £895bn of bonds, overwhelmingly government debt. This QE propped up the financial system by inflating house and share prices, while productive investment that benefits us all stagnated.
2022年,通货膨胀率达到11.1%,主要由能源价格和供应链中断所驱动,而这些因素几乎不受利率影响。然而,英格兰银行仍14次加息,给家庭和企业带来了沉重压力。
In 2022, inflation reached 11.1%, largely fuelled by energy prices and broken supply chains, which interest rates barely affect. Yet the Bank raised rates 14 times – squeezing households and businesses.
量化宽松使英格兰银行的规模不断扩张,如今它决定通过以远低于购买时的价格出售债券(利率上升降低了债券价值),将其规模缩减到更传统的水平。大量量化宽松资金最终成为商业银行的储备金,现在以更高的利率赚取利息。随着数十亿资金流入银行,英格兰银行也遭受了巨额亏损。
QE made the Bank bigger, and it has decided to shrink to a more traditional size by selling bonds at prices well below what was paid (higher interest rates cut their value). Much QE money ended up as commercial bank reserves now earning interest at higher rates. The Bank made large losses as billions flowed to banks.
2024-25年,原本对量化宽松承担亏损担保的财政部不得不支付超过360亿英镑的账单,而斯塔默政府则实施了严格的预算控制。在生活成本危机背景下,英国纳税人实际上为金融城埋单。
In 2024-25 the Treasury, which guaranteed QE against losses, picked up the bill for more than £36bn, while Starmer imposed tight budgets. Amid the cost-of-living crisis, British taxpayers financed the City.
安迪·伯纳姆希望终结持续40年的失败局面。这意味着要重建工业能力,解决英国经济失衡的问题。英格兰银行的独立性应当被废除,它应该被动员起来,为这一目标服务。
Andy Burnham wants to end 40 years of failure. That means tackling Britain’s lopsided economy by rebuilding industrial capacity. The Bank’s independence should be scrapped, and it should be put to work on this.
在《重振英国制造业》一书中,我们提出了一份经过成本测算的实施方案。英格兰银行与财政部将携手一家新设立的公共投资银行,共同为工业领域提供长期融资支持。英格兰银行不会再以亏损方式出售债券,从而避免给纳税人带来数十亿英镑的额外负担。该银行将维持借贷成本处于低位且稳定状态,并负责为电力、电网、交通及制造业领域的公共投资提供相应资金支持。
In Reindustrialise Britain, we set out a costed plan. The Bank and the Treasury would work with a new public investment bank providing long-term finance for industry. The Bank would not resume selling bonds at a loss, costing taxpayers billions. It would keep borrowing costs low and stable, ready to finance a measured share of public investment in power, grids, transport and manufacturing.
只要条件明确,英格兰银行也愿意接纳这家投资银行发行的债券,如此一来长期信贷成本便能真正服务于工厂建设,而非被用于投机活动。
It would accept the investment bank’s bonds on clear terms, so long-term credit is priced for factories, not speculation.
上述举措完全具备可行性。货币属于公共资源,负责发行货币的机构理应对议会负责,并致力于重振国家的工业实力。
All that is perfectly doable. Money is a public good. The institution that creates it should answer to parliament and rebuild industrial strength.
科斯塔斯·拉帕维察斯是伦敦大学亚非学院的经济学教授,曾任激进左翼联盟党议员,也是《重振英国制造业》一书的合著者。
Costas Lapavitsas is professor of economics at SOAS, a former Syriza MP, and co-author of Reindustrialise Britain.
詹姆斯·米德韦:我们需要协同应对之策。联合国数据显示,全球食品价格已升至四年来的最高水平,而今年出现的“哥斯拉级”厄尔尼诺现象将进一步加剧极端天气对农作物收成的影响,预计食品价格还将继续上涨。与此同时,石油价格也在飞速攀升。
James Meadway ‘We need coordinated responses’ UN figures show food prices across the globe hitting a four-year high, with further rises expected as this year’s “Godzilla” El Niño magnifies the impacts of extreme weather harvest failures. Oil prices are soaring.
目前全球范围内的通胀率都在持续走高。三十年来,主流经济学界始终坚信只有中央银行才能有效应对通胀问题。然而事实是,自1997年以来低通胀局面的出现,更多要归功于中国快速推进的工业化进程,正是这一进程压低了各类商品的价格,而非中央银行家的出色调控能力。
Inflation everywhere is ticking upwards. For 30 years, mainstream economics has clung to the idea that central banks are uniquely able to manage this. The hard truth is that post-1997, low inflation had more to do with China’s extraordinary industrialisation, keeping goods prices low, than central banker wisdom.
如今,无论是气候变化还是地缘政治动荡,都给全球带来了诸多冲击。用英格兰银行利率决策委员斯瓦蒂·丁格拉的话来说,这些冲击“已超出了货币当局的应对能力”。因此,我们不再需要中央银行“独立于政府”的运作模式,而需要各方协同应对:首先,中央银行在制定利率时应充分考量通胀的成因,当通胀源于其无法掌控的外部因素时,便不应贸然调整利率。
The world is now hit by shocks, whether from climate change or geopolitical upsets, that are, in the words of Bank of England ratesetter Swathi Dingra, “beyond the reach of monetary authorities”. Instead of ‘independence’ from government, we need coordinated responses: first, so that central banks change their ratesetting to account for the sources of inflation, leaving interest rates alone when shocks are from sources beyond their reach.
其次,一旦出现经济冲击,各国政府应当为家庭和企业提供支持,包括实施战略性价格管控措施。目前,政府往往可以推卸责任,声称控制通胀并非其职责范围。
Second, governments should support households and businesses, including through the use of strategic price controls, when shocks appear. Right now, they can pass the buck and say inflation isn’t in their purview.
第三,各国需着力发展本国供应链及国内生产能力,尤其是食品生产领域,以此抵御未来可能出现的各类冲击——而较低的利率水平有助于推动这一进程。
Third, countries need to invest in their own supply chains and domestic production, including food, to insulate against future shocks – something lower interest rates can encourage.
预计英格兰银行将于11月再度加息——我们绝不能任由这种情况发生。
The Bank is expected to raise interest rates again in November - we shouldn’t let them.
詹姆斯·米德韦博士是智库Verdant的主任,也曾担任影子财政大臣约翰·麦克唐纳的经济顾问。安·佩蒂福指出:“这完全不合常理。”英格兰银行实属国有机构,其员工均属政府雇员,行长也由首相任命。行长安德鲁·贝利已坦言,若通胀源于外部输入因素,央行便无力维持物价稳定。即便如此,这个所谓的“独立”央行仍执意继续加息,这只会推高私营与公共部门的融资成本,阻碍经济复苏。实在荒谬至极:英国的财政与货币政策体系如今完全背道而驰。
Dr James Meadway is director of the Verdant thinktank and former economic adviser to Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell Ann Pettifor ‘It makes no sense’ The Bank of England is nationalised, and its staff are on government payroll. The governor is chosen by the prime minister. Governor Andrew Bailey has admitted the Bank cannot do anything about price stability when inflation is imported. Even so, the ‘independent’ Bank intends to raise rates higher – making both private and public investment more expensive, and stalling recovery. It makes no sense: Britain’s fiscal and monetary institutions are at war with each other.
国际货币基金组织预测,英国即将迎来自20世纪20年代以来最糟糕的十年。私营部门因经济疲软而极度规避风险,不愿进行投资;政府则被种种限制束缚,难以承担经济复苏的重任。政界人士既受各类“财政规则”制约,又受制于英格兰银行的“独立性”及其设定的2%通胀目标(即所谓的物价稳定使命)。
The IMF predicts the UK is on course for its worst decade since the 1920s. The private sector is too risk-averse to invest in a weakened economy, and government is effectively forbidden from taking responsibility for economic recovery. Politicians are constrained by ‘fiscal rules’ and by the ‘independence’ of the Bank of England and its 2% inflation target (known as its price stability mandate).
这些规则理应予以废除,转而将实现充分就业与应对气候变化作为政策核心。取而代之的应是设立一个通胀管控机构。该机构可效仿法国的做法,运用关税保护机制以及对大型能源企业征收暴利税等手段,将所得资金用于扶助弱势群体、减轻通胀带来的负面影响。
This should be abandoned, with full employment and climate consideration its priority. In its place, an Inflation Control Office should be set up. Like France, it would use tools, including a tariff shield and a windfall tax on big energy companies to spend on supporting vulnerable people and lowering the impact of inflation.
接下来,央行应以较低利率为目标——这对私营和公共部门的投资至关重要。然后,正如2008年后那样,央行应采用所谓的定向长期再融资操作(TLTROs),让商业银行有机会锁定向客户放贷的较低利率,同时央行必须提供“指引”,确保贷款用于生产性而非投机性活动。
Next, the Bank should target lower interest rates – vital for both private and public sector investment. Then, as post-2008, the Bank should adopt what are known as targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) to give commercial banks the chance to lock in lower interest rates on their loans to customers, while the Bank must offer ‘guidance’ to ensure lending is for productive, not speculative activity.
1945年,当公共债务超过GDP的200%时,货币与财政的协调赋予了政府应对挑战的责任。今天,国家面临诸多挑战。维持现状,并免除民选政府对经济复苏的责任,只会进一步助长不满情绪。
In 1945, when public debt exceeded 200% of GDP, monetary and fiscal coordination gave the government responsibility to address challenges. Today, the state faces many. Maintaining the status quo, and absolving elected governments of responsibility for economic recovery, will only fuel further discontent.
安·佩蒂福是一位经济学家兼作家。下周,经济学家伊莎贝拉·韦伯将做客《First Edition》栏目,回答各位的提问。无论是紧缩政策还是实现财政赤字为零,任何话题都欢迎探讨。如有任何问题,请直接回复邮件或发送邮件至first.edition@theguardian.com。
Ann Pettifor is an economist and author Have your say Next week, economist Isabella Weber will be here on First Edition answering your questions. From austerity to zero deficits, nothing is too simple. To get in touch hit reply or email first.edition@theguardian.com What else we’ve been enjoying As a dedicated butter fan, I enjoyed Morwenna Ferrier’s gastronomic tour exploring the cultural rehabilitation of the golden stuff.
我们近期喜欢的内容:作为一名黄油爱好者,我很喜欢莫尔文娜·费里尔所写的文章——她带我们领略了这种“金色食材”在文化层面上的复兴历程。莉比·罗伯特撰写的关于康奈尔大学事件的专栏也发人深省:它提醒我们,一个可以肆意对待女性的大学校长会对整个校园文化产生怎样的影响。波比·埃米妮·萨纳尔对传奇乐手贝兹的采访同样引人入胜:作为快乐星期一乐队的打击乐手,贝兹坦言戒掉糖瘾比戒掉可卡因还难;不过文中唯独没提到:他怎么已经62岁了呢?
Libby Robert Reich’s column on the Cornell University case was a good reminder of how a President who acts with impunity against women shapes the broader culture. Poppy Emine Saner’s interview with the legendary Bez, maraca-shaker for the Happy Mondays who says it was harder to give up sugar than cocaine, leaves only one question unanswered: how can he be 62 already?
莉比:伊丽娜·罗佐夫斯基的新书里收录了一些巴尔干半岛的照片,令我惊叹不已。这些照片细腻地展现了这片拥有复杂且充满情感纠葛历史的地区。波比:在这篇发人深省的专栏中,智利作家阿里尔·多夫曼结合皮诺切特政权的倒台,为即将参加美国中期选举的选民们提供了宝贵启示,同时警告称:想要扭转特朗普留下的影响绝非易事。
Libby I was stunned by some of our images from the Balkans, based on Irina Rozovsky’s new book. They present a nuanced depiction of a region with a complicated and emotional history. Poppy In this bracing column, Chilean author Ariel Dorfman sets out the lessons from the fall of Pinochet for voters in the US midterms, and warns that reversing Trump’s legacy won’t be simple.
体育:足球方面,哈里·凯恩以两粒进球庆祝自己成为英格兰国家队出场次数并列最多的球员;当天英格兰队在温布利球场以3比0大胜捷克队。而塞巴斯蒂安·波科格诺利作为苏格兰队主教练的首次带队经历则有些惨淡——苏格兰队以1比2不敌斯洛文尼亚队。
Libby Sport Football | Harry Kane marked becoming England’s joint record cap holder by netting twice as Czechia were crushed 3-0 at Wembley; Sebastien Pocognoli’s first camp as Scotland head coach ended with a grim 2-1 defeat to Slovenia.
网球方面,诺瓦克·德约科维奇在中国公开赛上表现出色,拿下了近一年来首个冠军头衔;卡洛斯·阿尔卡拉斯则在日本公开赛决赛中击败吉里·莱赫卡,赢得了自2月份以来的首个个人冠军。
Tennis | Novak Djokovic capped an outstanding week at the China Open with his first title for nearly a year, and Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final of the Japan Open to win his first individual title since February.
足球方面:从被誉为“新一代托尼·克罗斯”的球员到美国足坛的未来希望,我们精选了60位出生于2009年、堪称世界足坛最优秀的年轻才俊。
Football | From ‘the new Toni Kroos’ to the US’s next big hope, we select 60 of the best young talents in world football born in 2009.
各大报纸的头版新闻:《卫报》以“希利计划投入10亿英镑以降低能源账单”作为头条;《每日电讯报》则报道“军情六处担忧:柏林情报首脑泄露英国机密”;《每日邮报》称“保守党拟削减就业税以鼓励年轻人重返职场”;《泰晤士报》的标题为“巴代诺克承诺减税”。《金融时报》的重点报道是“为执行霍尔木兹海峡的高危航行任务,油轮船长每月可获10万美元报酬”;《i报》的头条则是“因教师加薪拨款出现失误,学校预算或将面临紧缩”。
The front pages The Guardian splashes on “Healey plans £1bn support to bring down energy bills”. The Telegraph leads with “Berlin spy chief leaked UK secrets, MI6 fears”, the Mail says “Tories to slash jobs tax to get young back into work” and the Times has “Badenoch promises tax cuts”. The Financial Times runs with “Oil tanker captains paid $100,000 a month for perilous Hormuz voyages” and top story at The i Paper is “School budgets set for squeeze after blunder over funding teacher pay rises”.
《太阳报》以“王室家庭医生的遇害事件”作为头条;《镜报》在报道奈杰尔·法拉奇及英国改革党相关消息时,标题为“连‘恶党’都觉得太恶劣了”。
The Sun leads on “Murder of royal family GP” and the Mirror says “Too nasty for the nasty party”, as it reports on Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
最新疫情动态?西伯利亚出现鼠疫疑似病例:一名实验室工作人员死亡。据报道,一名28岁的实验室工作人员达莉娅·希皮洛娃在西伯利亚一家鼠疫研究中心发生事故后发病,随后不治身亡。自那时起,俄罗斯东部多家医院已开始实施隔离措施。俄罗斯卫生监管部门称其死因是“病因不明的肺炎”,不过外界仍有人猜测她可能感染了鼠疫。
The Latest Plague outbreak? Russian lab worker dies in Siberia Quarantine measures have been in place in several hospitals in eastern Russia since a 28-year-old laboratory worker, Darya Shipilova, died after falling ill at work following a reported accident at a plague research centre in Siberia. Russia’s health watchdog has said she died of ‘pneumonia of unknown aetiology’, but there is speculation about a possible plague infection.
露西·霍夫就此采访了《科学周刊》的联合主持人玛德琳·芬利。今日漫画 | 皮特·宋吉好消息一则:世界并非全然糟糕倘若调香师能够在不砍伐树木的前提下,合成出世界上最珍贵的香料成分的气味,那会怎样呢?沉香,又称“乌德”,是沉香木树所分泌的深色芳香树脂,目前需求量极大,导致野生沉香林遭到严重破坏。
Lucy Hough speaks to Science Weekly co-host Madeleine Finlay. Cartoon of the day | Pete Songi The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad What if perfumers could create the smell of the world’s most valuable scent ingredient without cutting down the tree that makes it? Agarwood, or oudh, the dark, fragrant resin produced by Aquilaria trees is in such high demand that the wild forests have been devastated.
如今,人工智能技术的进步使得机器能够预测并重现各种气味,这意味着未来香水行业有望在不反复采伐濒危植物的前提下,成功复制出这些植物所特有的香气与化合物。
Now advances in AI, which allow it to predict and recreate scents, mean that soon the fragrance industry should be able to reproduce scents and compounds from endangered plants without repeatedly harvesting them.
虽然科技早已能够识别气味中的各种分子,但此次的创新之处在于其预测功能。不过,一些环保人士仍警告称,这种做法可能沦为“绿色洗白”的手段:即便生产出了替代品,消费者依然会购买那些备受追捧的原产品,而物种数量减少的其他原因也并未得到解决。
Although technology has long been able to identify molecules in a scent, what’s new is the predictive element. Nevertheless, some conservationists have warned against greenwashing: producing a substitute doesn’t prevent consumers buying the highly prized original – or address other causes of a species’ decline.
每周一期的《The Upside》资讯,我们会在每周日发送给您。工作无聊到发呆?最后,《卫报》的各类益智游戏能为您全天带来乐趣。明天见。
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.