周一，英镑兑美元和欧元大体保持稳定，投资者关注点从上周的英国预算案转移到了周四预期的英格兰银行加息上，这将是该央行自2023年8月以来的首次加息。
The pound was broadly steady against both the dollar and euro on Monday as investor attention shifted from last week's UK budget to an expected Bank of England rate hike on Thursday, the central bank's first since August 2023.
尽管欧洲央行和美联储等其他主要央行今年已加息以应对伊朗战争引发的能源价格飙升带来的通胀压力，但英格兰银行迄今为止一直采取观望态度。
While other major central banks like the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve have already hiked interest rates this year to combat inflationary pressures from the Iran war-driven energy price spike, the BoE so far has followed a wait-and-see approach.
“直到现在，该行会辩称自己一直处于‘主动维持’状态。原本计划今年降息50个基点以上，仅仅不这样做就相当于事实上的紧缩。按这个逻辑，该行增加的政策限制程度与欧洲央行相当，后者已两次上调存款利率，”荷兰国际集团（ING）的经济学家和策略师表示。
"Until now, the Bank would argue it’s been on 'active hold'. It was set to cut rates by upwards of 50 basis points this year, so simply not doing that amounted to de facto tightening. By that logic, the Bank has added a similar amount of policy restriction as the European Central Bank, which has lifted its deposit rate twice," ING economists and strategists said.
他们补充道：“但不断恶化的能源危机让该行不采取行动变得困难得多，”并称预计通胀将从目前的3.5%升至明年初的4%以上。
"But the worsening energy crisis has made it much harder for the Bank not to act," they added, saying that inflation is expected to rise above 4% early next year from the current 3.5%.
英格兰银行决策者一再表示，能源价格维持高位的时间越长，加息的可能性就越大。
BoE policymakers have repeatedly said that the likelihood of a hike grows the longer energy prices stay elevated.
上周布伦特原油期货触及数月高位，尽管周一因对中东冲突通过外交途径解决的乐观情绪再度升温，油价最后下跌约4.5%，但仍报每桶108.37美元，远高于伊朗战争前水平。
Brent crude futures last week hit multi-month highs, and although they were last down roughly 4.5% on Monday as optimism about a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in the Middle East grew again, they were still at $108.37 a barrel, far above pre-Iran war levels.
油价日内下跌略微提振了投资者在外汇市场的风险偏好，这给美元带来压力。英镑兑美元最后微涨至1.3417美元，兑欧元跌至83.53便士，欧元兑走弱的美元走强。
The daily drop in oil prices slightly lifted investors' risk appetite in currency markets, which weighed on the dollar . Sterling was last slightly higher against the greenback at $1.3417, and dipped to 83.53 pence against the euro , which strengthened against the weaker dollar.
展望未来，荷兰国际集团（ING）表示，在周四预期的加息之后，英格兰银行（BoE）在2月份再次加息的可能性也很大，但该集团称市场对英格兰银行加息的定价“看起来极端”。根据伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）的数据，货币市场上周完全消化了到明年9月为止共计四次、每次25个基点的加息预期。
Looking ahead, ING said that after Thursday's expected rate hike, a follow-up hike from the BoE in February is also likely, but said that market pricing for BoE rate hikes "looks extreme." Money markets were last fully pricing in a total of four 25-basis-point rate hikes by next September, according to LSEG data.
本周的央行行动是在英国财政大臣约翰·希利上周提交其首份预算案之后出现的。希利的支出计划未带来任何惊喜，市场平稳消化了他的计划，英镑和英国政府债券（金边债券）均未出现剧烈反应。
This week's central bank action comes after British finance minister John Healey delivered his first budget last week. Healey's spending plans did not provide any surprises, and markets took his plans in their stride with neither the pound nor gilts reacting strongly.