11月10日，出席由支持堕胎权组织“选举民主党女性”举办活动的议员们，不太可能对唐纳德·特朗普的战争部长皮特·赫格塞斯怀有多少同情。赫格塞斯解职了女性将军，并质疑女性在武装部队中的作用。但赫格塞斯或许该感谢这些议员，让他在当天下午众议院的弹劾投票中险些逃过一劫。有11名民主党议员缺席投票——超过7票的表决差额——其中一些人因从活动返回途中遇到交通拥堵而迟到。
THE LAWMAKERS who attended an event hosted by Elect Democratic Women, a pro-choice group, on November 10th are unlikely to have much sympathy for Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s secretary of war, who has sacked female generals and questioned the role of women in the armed forces. But Mr Hegseth might thank them for his narrow escape in an impeachment vote in the House of Representatives that afternoon. Eleven Democrats missed the vote—more than the seven-vote margin—with some delayed in traffic on their way back from the event.
这一失误凸显了民主党面临的一个更大问题。在中期选举中重创特朗普所在政党的选民里，超过七成在出口民调中表示，伊朗战争是其投票时的关键或主要因素。民主党渴望回应这种愤怒，但弹劾赫格塞斯、更不用说结束战争的措施，都需要时间。与此同时，伊朗平均每天袭击一艘油轮。
That failure points to a bigger problem for Democrats. More than seven in ten voters who crushed Mr Trump’s party in the midterms said in exit polls that the war in Iran had been a crucial or major factor in their vote. Democrats are keen to respond to that fury, yet measures to remove Mr Hegseth, let alone end the war, will take time. Meanwhile, Iran continues to strike one oil tanker a day, on average.
由共和党籍“离经叛道”（且即将离任）的众议员托马斯·马西提出的弹劾条款，指控赫格塞斯非法发动战争、无视国会撤军决议、漠视平民伤害，以及在委内瑞拉、也门问题上和打击走私毒品船只的行动中存在越权行为。民主党人和共和党人原本都预计，会有几名共和党议员背离本党、投反对赫格塞斯票。最终，马西是唯一投反对票的异己分子。战争部发布了一张由AI生成的、该众议员哭泣的图片。
The articles of impeachment introduced by Thomas Massie, a maverick (and outgoing) Republican congressman, accused Mr Hegseth of starting the war illegally, ignoring congressional resolutions to withdraw and showing disregard for civilian harm, as well as transgressions relating to Venezuela, Yemen and strikes on drug-smuggling boats. Democrats and Republicans alike had expected that several Republicans would break with their party and vote against Mr Hegseth. In the end, Mr Massie was the only dissident. The department of war posted an AI-generated image of the congressman weeping.
弹劾表决几乎肯定会在1月成功，届时民主党将拥有多数席位，且党内纪律更严明。即便如此，赫格塞斯仍将在参议院接受审判，届时至少需要11名共和党参议员背离本党立场。这并不意味着部长的职位稳如泰山。许多共和党人正私下建议白宫立即替换赫格塞斯，以便由共和党控制的参议院确认继任者。特朗普似乎毫不在意。
An impeachment vote will almost certainly succeed in January, when Democrats have a majority and better-whipped members. Even then, Mr Hegseth would be tried in the Senate, where at least 11 Republicans would need to break ranks with their party. That does not mean the secretary’s job is secure. Many Republicans are privately advising the White House to replace Mr Hegseth now, while a Republican-controlled Senate could confirm a successor. Mr Trump seems untroubled.
他在11月8日表示：“他犯了两件事，基本上就是赢了两场战争。”随着弹劾行动推进，民主党将寻求其他途径制止战争本身。理论上，《1973年战争权力决议》要求总统在冲突持续60天后，必须获得国会授权才能继续作战，因“不可避免的军事必要”可获30天延期。两党总统均曾宣称该强制条款违宪。6月，国会通过一项决议，指示总统从伊朗冲突中撤出武装力量，显示出两党的不满。该决议的效力不过相当于一封训斥信。9月，另一项决议尝试在参议院搁浅。
“He’s guilty of two things,” said the president on November 8th. “Basically winning two wars.”As impeachment efforts rumble forward, Democrats will seek other ways to halt the war itself. In theory, the War Powers Resolution of 1973 obliges presidents to obtain congressional authorisation to continue fighting after 60 days of conflict, with a 30-day extension allowed due to “unavoidable military necessity”. Presidents of both parties have dismissed that injunction as unconstitutional. In June, in a sign of bipartisan discontent, Congress passed a resolution directing the president to remove armed forces from the conflict in Iran. It had the impact of a scolding letter. An attempt at another resolution foundered in the Senate in September.
民主党主导的众议院可能会起诉以强制执行《战争权力决议》，但法院在战争事务上通常尊重总统裁量。国会可以提出新立法，但正如弹劾赫格塞斯一样，这需要参议院67票才能推翻特朗普的否决。
The Democrat-led House may sue to enforce the War Powers Resolution, but courts typically defer to presidents on matters of war. Congress could introduce new legislation but, like the impeachment of Mr Hegseth, that would need 67 Senate votes to overcome Mr Trump’s veto.
理论上更有效的工具是利用国会的财政大权。为避免12月11日政府关门，国会必须通过一项完整的拨款法案，或者更可能的是通过一项临时拨款决议，即一种将现行支出水平延长几个月的权宜之计。一项《国防授权法案》也在谈判之中，该法案规定了五角大楼的政策和薪酬，自1961年以来每年都获通过。前参议院拨款委员会工作人员主任查尔斯·基弗表示，众议院和参议院拨款委员会的资深民主党成员罗莎·德劳罗和帕蒂·默里可能会要求特朗普结束战争，以换取通过临时拨款决议，尽管他怀疑两人都不愿因这一问题导致政府关门。
The more effective tool, in theory, would be to use Congress’s power of the purse. To avoid a government shutdown on December 11th, Congress must pass either a full funding bill or, more likely, a continuing resolution, a stopgap measure that extends current spending levels for a few months. A National Defence Authorisation Act, which spells out Pentagon policies and pay and which has passed each year since 1961, is also under negotiation. Charles Kieffer, a former staff director of the Senate appropriations committee, says that Rosa DeLauro and Patty Murray, the senior Democratic members of the House and Senate appropriations committees, respectively, might demand that Mr Trump end the war in exchange for passing a continuing resolution, though he suspects that neither would be willing to shut the government down over the issue.
然而，利用国防开支作为筹码充满风险。伊朗战争和其他军事行动已在五角大楼的财政上留下了一个巨大的窟窿。美国企业研究所高级研究员伊莱恩·麦卡斯克指出，即使通过一项临时拨款决议，与去年相比，五角大楼每天也将少 4 亿美元现金，与特朗普提议的 1.5 万亿美元预算中今年计划的惊人数额相比，每天将短缺 17 亿美元。
Using defence spending as leverage, however, is fraught. The Iran war and other military operations have left the Pentagon with a gaping financial hole. Even if a continuing resolution were to be passed, it would leave the Pentagon with $400m less cash per day compared with last year, and $1.7bn per day short of the astonishing sums planned this year under Mr Trump’s proposed $1.5trn budget, notes Elaine McCusker, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who served as the Pentagon’s top budget official during Mr Trump’s first term.
麦卡斯克曾在特朗普第一任期内担任五角大楼首席预算官。她说：“人们可能不了解军方目前处于何种境地。受预算延迟、短缺和不确定性伤害的，不是那些有权力采取行动的人。”
“People may not understand the kind of situation the military is in right now,” she says. “The people who get hurt by budget delays, shortfalls and uncertainty are not the people in a position of power to do anything about it.”
因此，民主党人承认，在控制国会之前，他们几乎没有机会切断战争资金。即使那时也不容易。基弗回忆了民主党 2007 年试图迫使乔治·W·布什从伊拉克撤军的努力，当时该党控制两院，他们将这一要求纳入补充预算请求——即常规国防预算的追加拨款。布什否决了该措施。基弗指出，尽管该举措在实质上无效，“但它给了民主党人所需的政治掩护，让他们继续为部队提供资金”。
Democrats therefore acknowledge that they have little chance of choking off funds for the war until they control Congress. Even then it will not be easy. Mr Kieffer recalls Democrats’ efforts to force George W. Bush to withdraw troops from Iraq in 2007, when the party controlled both chambers, by including that demand in a supplemental budget request, a top-up to the regular defence budget. Mr Bush vetoed that measure. Though it was ineffective in substance, “it gave the Democrats the political cover that they needed to go ahead and provide funding for the troops”, observes Mr Kieffer.
一些民主党人希望有足够多的共和党人对战争感到厌倦并可能倒戈。但他们近乎齐步一致地投票保护赫格塞斯免遭弹劾，这并不令人鼓舞。■
Some Democrats hope that enough Republicans are weary of the war and might flip. But their near-lockstep vote to shield Mr Hegseth from impeachment is not encouraging. ■