民主党在中期选举中大获全胜引发的政治大戏将于12月初拉开帷幕，首先是预算谈判，尤其是聚焦国防开支的谈判。情节错综复杂，宛如日间肥皂剧。立法者已经试图罢免国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯，而伊朗战争则像一团黑暗、不祥的乌云笼罩在谈判之上。
The political drama resulting from Democrats’ landslide midterm victory will start in early December with budget talks, especially those focused on defense spending. The plot is as tangled as a daytime soap opera. Legislators have already taken a stab at removing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and the Iran war hangs over negotiations like a dark, ominous cloud.
毫无疑问，民主党获得了反对伊朗冲突的授权，但这必须与满足五角大楼的需求相平衡：补充导弹储备、建造更多核动力潜艇和舰船、为新型隐身战机提供资金、投资用于击败廉价无人机和保卫太空的武器系统。考虑到中国军力快速扩张、伊朗岌岌可危以及弗拉基米尔·普京在乌克兰战争陷入血腥僵局而变得绝望，这些因素对国家安全构成的威胁日益增长，现在不是考虑削减预算的时候。
No doubt Democrats have a mandate to oppose the Iran conflict, but this must be balanced against giving the Pentagon what it needs to replenish missile stockpiles, build more nuclear-powered submarines and ships, fund new stealth aircraft, and invest in weapon systems to defeat cheap drones and to defend space. This is not the time to contemplate budget cuts given the growing threats to national security from China’s rapid military buildup, a dangerously wounded Iran and a desperate Vladimir Putin whose war on Ukraine has ground to a deadly stalemate.
如果伊朗政权控制了霍尔木兹海峡的进出航道，国会动用财政大权施压要求迅速退出伊朗战争可能会适得其反。
Congress using the power of the purse to press for a quick exit to the Iran war could backfire if the regime takes control of traffic in and out of the Strait of Hormuz.
据《政治报》报道，即使在中期选举结果出炉前，五角大楼和国会拨款委员便已在起草一份1.1万亿美元的预算。这远低于白宫要求的创纪录的1.5万亿美元和解及强制性资金，但与2026财年支出持平，因此有达成协议的空间。虽然“金穹顶”导弹盾等引人注目的项目最终可能获得的支持减少，但以“万亿”而非“十亿”起步的预算数额将提振国防工业的信心，该行业正寻求跟上中国的步伐，预计四年内中国军舰数量将比美国海军多48%。
The Pentagon and congressional spending committees were drafting a $1.1 trillion budget even before the midterm verdict was out, according to Politico. That’s well short of the record $1.5 trillion of reconciliation and mandatory funding demanded by the White House but in line with the 2026 outlay, so there is a deal to be struck with Democrats. While headline-grabbing programs such as the Golden Dome missile shield may end up with less support, a budget amount that starts with a “t” instead of “b” would boost the confidence of a defense industry that is seeking to keep pace with China, which is forecast to have 48% more warships than the US Navy in four short years.
自2010年上次峰值以来，美国国防预算的增长未能跟上经济产出。经通胀调整后，2006年至2025年间的支出仅增长了个位数百分比。根据战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）的一项研究，同期中国经通胀调整后的军费开支增长了近四倍，达到3350亿美元。官方数字可能低估了中国的国防支出及其军事现代化的速度。根据2024年国防部向国会提交的一份报告，实际支出可能比政府统计数据高出40%至90%。美国在造船能力和小型无人机制造等领域明显落后。
Growth in the US defense budget hasn’t kept up with economic output since the last peak in 2010. Spending adjusted for inflation saw a single-digit percentage increase between 2006 and 2025. China’s inflation-adjusted military spending over that same period jumped almost fourfold to $335 billion, according to a study by the Center for Strategic & International Studies. Official numbers likely understate China’s defense expenditures and the speed of its military modernization. Actual spending could be 40% to 90% higher than government statistics, according to a 2024 defense department report to Congress. The US is significantly behind in areas such as shipbuilding capacity and small-drone manufacturing.
美国需要缩小差距。海军需要更多舰艇，并保持在核动力潜艇方面的优势。更重要的是，国防工业需要投资开发创新武器系统，这些系统造价低廉、可大规模生产，以应对廉价远程无人机和其他自主武器的威胁。在伊朗冲突中库存耗尽后，导弹和拦截弹的产量必须增加。这种短缺使所有美国盟友更加脆弱，尤其是乌克兰。
It needs to close the gap. The Navy needs more ships and to maintain its edge on nuclear-powered subs. More importantly, the defense industry needs to invest in developing innovative weapons systems that are inexpensive and can be mass produced to beat back the threat of cheap long-distance drones and other autonomous weapons. And production of missiles and interceptors must increase after stockpiles were depleted in the Iran conflict. This shortage is making all US allies more vulnerable, especially Ukraine.
五角大楼在其“获取转型战略”上取得了良好进展，该战略旨在提高武器采购的速度和效率，并巩固供应链。稳定的资金将使五角大楼能够向洛克希德·马丁公司和RTX公司等企业提供长期合同，例如今年达成的为期七年的增加导弹和拦截弹产量的协议，为行业提供长期投资的确定性。
The Pentagon has made good progress on its Acquisition Transformation Strategy, which seeks to increase speed and efficiency for procuring weapons and shore up the supply chain. Stable funding will allow the Pentagon to offer companies including Lockheed Martin Corp. and RTX Corp. long-term contracts, such as the seven-year deals agreed on this year to increase missile and interceptor production, providing industry with the certainty to invest for the long term.
国防部愿意与安杜里尔工业公司和帕兰蒂尔科技公司等国防初创企业合作，涉及核潜艇零部件生产和基于人工智能的系统等领域，这为供应基础注入了新的活力和紧迫感，同时也给传统国防企业施加了压力。国防部直接投资私营公司同样备受争议但却是必要的，这些投资主要与稀土矿物和磁铁有关，后者用于从F-35隐形战机到“战斧”导弹等各类国防系统。
The willingness to work with defense startups such as Anduril Industries Inc. and Palantir Technologies Inc. in areas including the production of components for nuclear submarines and systems based on artificial intelligence has unleashed new energy and urgency into the supply base, while lighting a fire under legacy defense companies. Also controversial but necessary have been the Defense Department’s direct investments in private companies, mostly tied to the rare-earth minerals and magnets used in defense systems from the F-35 stealth fighter to Tomahawk missiles.
中国利用补贴和低价将竞争对手挤出市场，目前控制着约90%的稀土精炼产能；中国曾利用这一供应垄断地位，在贸易谈判中作为对美国的筹码。
China controls about 90% of rare-earth refining after using subsidies and low prices to put competitors out of business; it has used the supply stranglehold as leverage over the US in trade talks.
国会应行使监督职能，审查新的采购流程及所有相关交易，依据实绩而非政治因素进行评判。参议院版《国防授权法案》草案——即国防优先事项的蓝图——建议国防部长制定一套职业道德准则，类似于金融专业人士采用的准则，适用于参与发放直接贷款和获取公司股权的官员，这些是国防部用于支持供应商的工具。如果遵守这套职业道德准则，将保护国防官员免受腐败或不当行为指控。
Congress should exercise its oversight role on the new procurement process and on all these deals, judging them on merit and not on politics. The Senate’s draft of the National Defense Authorization Act, a blueprint of defense priorities, recommends the defense secretary establish a code of ethics, similar to ones adopted by financial professionals, for officials involved in giving direct loans and taking equity stakes in companies, tools the department is using to support suppliers. Such a code of ethics, if followed, would protect defense officials from charges of corruption or impropriety.
对于国防承包商而言，中期选举带来了更多不确定性，但这些公司经验丰富，擅长应对政治风暴。所有主要制造商都在加大产量，以消减创纪录的积压订单。四大上市承包商——洛克希德·马丁公司、RTX公司、诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司和通用动力公司——的待执行国防工作量在过去五年平均以9%的速度增长，随后从2025年底至9月激增47%，累计积压订单达7270亿美元。
For defense contractors, the midterms have introduced more uncertainty, but these companies are experienced at weathering political storms. All the major manufacturers are boosting production to whittle down record backlogs. The defense work pending at the four largest publicly traded contractors — Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman Corp. and General Dynamics Corp. — had been growing at an average 9% clip over the last five years and then jumped 47% from the end 2025 through September, reaching a collective backlog of $727 billion.
长期合同、加快采购决策的推动以及修复供应链的努力开始见效。国防部直接持股的矿业公司MP Materials Corp.今年开始生产磁铁，并正在建设第二座、规模更大的工厂，以供应国防承包商和商业客户。在联邦政府禁止中国无人机（包括深圳大疆创新科技有限公司生产的热门产品）后，国防部也是在美国建立小型无人机产业的主力客户。
Long-term contracts, the push for quicker procurement decisions and efforts to repair the supply chain are beginning to pay off. MP Materials Corp., a mining company in which the department took a direct stake, began producing magnets this year and is building a second, larger factory to supply defense contractors and commercial customers. The department is also the anchor customer for establishing a small drone industry in the US after the federal government banned Chinese drones, including popular ones made by SZ DJI Technology Co.
由于中国的经济和制造实力，中国比冷战时期的苏联构成危险得多的对手。彭博观点专栏作家詹姆斯·斯塔夫里迪斯最近在思考我们应从二战汲取的教训时写道：“战争是在造船厂和工厂里赢得的。”如果乌克兰、伊朗和其他热点地区爆发和平，那将是件好事。现实是世界只会变得更加危险，这推动了国防繁荣，无论民主党控制的国会是否喜欢，这种繁荣都将持续下去。
China is a much more dangerous adversary than the Soviet Union was during the Cold War because of its economic and manufacturing prowess. Wars are won in shipyards and factories, Bloomberg Opinion’s James Stavridis wrote recently while contemplating the lessons we should take from World War II. It would be wonderful if peace broke out in Ukraine, Iran and other hot spots. The reality is that the world is only growing more dangerous, driving this defense boom that will keep going whether the Democratic-controlled Congress likes it or not.