
在渴望在乌克兰战争讨论中获得一个席位后,欧洲有望如愿以偿。但决定谁来代表该大陆发言,本身就是一场谈判。
After coveting a seat in the Ukraine war discussions, Europe is poised to get one. Deciding who should speak for the continent is its own negotiation.
几个月来,欧洲领导人一直徘徊在结束俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的谈判边缘,密切关注着谈判桌上的一个席位。现在,他们终于有望获得这样一个席位,却不知道谁应该坐上去。
European leaders have waited on the margins of negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine for months, eyeing a seat at the table. Now they finally expect to get one, and they don’t know who should sit in it.
“如果欧洲能够确定一个人来代表他们发言,那将是一项比让俄罗斯人将他们纳入谈判更伟大的成就,”总统特朗普的女婿兼两名特使之一贾里德·库什纳于周四表示。
“If Europe could identify one person to speak on their behalf, that would be a bigger achievement than getting the Russians to include them in the negotiation,” Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and one of his two envoys, said on Thursday.
库什纳的这番挖苦反映了一个残酷的、对欧洲而言可能令人尴尬的现实:内部的分裂可能会让欧洲官员付出时间和影响力的代价。库什纳和他的美国首席谈判代表同僚史蒂夫·维特科夫本周推动将欧洲人纳入谈判,此前俄罗斯在阿拉伯联合酋长国举行的讨论期间坚持将欧洲的战后安全作为谈判议题。
Mr. Kushner’s dig reflected a harsh — and, for Europe, potentially embarrassing — reality that internal divisions could cost European officials time and influence. Mr. Kushner and his fellow lead U.S. negotiator, Steve Witkoff, pushed this week to add the Europeans to the talks after Russia insisted during discussions in the United Arab Emirates that postwar security in Europe be a topic of negotiation.
俄罗斯谈判代表在与乌克兰和美国的会谈中明确表示,作为结束战争的条件,他们希望欧洲改变其自身防卫方式。俄罗斯一向有推动削减北约在其边界附近行动的历史。
Russian negotiators made it clear during the talks with Ukraine and the United States that as a condition of ending the war, they want Europe to change how it protects itself. Russia has a record of pushing to pare back NATO operations near its border.
欧洲官员拒绝了这些建议,坚称由该大陆而非克里姆林宫来决定自身的安全。但库什纳和维特科夫对扩大谈判范围持开放态度,试图打破关于战争讨论的僵局。
European officials have rejected those suggestions, insisting that the continent, not the Kremlin, decides its own security. But Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff expressed openness to expanding the scope of the talks to try to break the impasse on discussions about the war.
“我不希望有人谈论我们的欧洲大楼,如果他们不住在那座大楼里的话,”卢森堡首相吕克·弗里登在周五的一次采访中表示。
“I don’t want someone to talk about our European house, if they are not living in that house,” Luc Frieden, prime minister of Luxembourg, said in an interview on Friday.
指定一名首席谈判代表将使欧洲在关于自身未来的讨论中拥有发言权,而未能迅速确定人选可能会让该大陆显得软弱和支离破碎。乌克兰战争如何解决可能会对欧洲产生数十年的影响——要么遏制俄罗斯扩张主义的威胁,要么助长其气焰。
Naming a lead negotiator would give Europe a voice in discussions about its own future, while failing to identify someone quickly might make the continent appear weak and fragmented. How the Ukraine war is settled could reverberate across Europe for decades — either containing the threat of Russian expansionism or emboldening it.
“欧洲真的需要注意了,”乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基周四在都柏林出席一场峰会时,向聚集在那里的数十位欧洲大陆领导人发出警告。欧盟领导人周五将在爱尔兰首都举行的午宴上辩论谁来代表他们。泽连斯基敦促欧洲在月底前选出人选,最早可能在下周四于德国举行的乌克兰盟友会议上。
“Europe really needs to pay attention,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine warned dozens of leaders from across the continent assembled in Dublin for a summit on Thursday. European Union leaders will debate who should represent them on Friday at a lunch in the Irish capital. Mr. Zelensky is pushing Europe to choose someone by the end of the month, possibly as soon as a meeting of Ukraine’s allies next Thursday in Germany.
这个问题在周四晚些时候变得更加紧迫。库什纳在都柏林的一个空军基地与克里姆林宫举行会谈后对记者表示,俄罗斯官员被问及是否有欧洲谈判代表参加谈判时,表现出“愿意尝试一下”。站在他身边的泽连斯基补充说,“下一次,下一次会议”,欧洲将进入“谈判团队”。尽管利害攸关,但挑选一名代表,甚至是代表欧洲发言的小型代表团,已经成为一项艰巨的任务。
The issue grew more pressing late on Thursday. Mr. Kushner told reporters at an air base in Dublin, after a meeting with the Kremlin, that Russian officials had been asked about having European negotiators at the table and were “willing to give it a try.”Mr. Zelensky, standing alongside him, added that “next time, next meeting,” Europe will be on the “negotiation team.”Even with such high stakes, picking a representative, or even a small group to speak for Europe, has become a herculean lift.
欧盟小国并不总是信任大国能反映其利益。具有财务和安全利害关系的英国和诺威并不属于欧盟。与俄罗斯接壤的东欧国家怀疑西欧国家是否理解它们所前面临的威胁的深度。
Small nations in the European Union do not always trust big ones to reflect their interests. Britain and Norway, which have a financial and security stake, are not part of the union. Eastern nations bordering Russia doubt that western ones understand the depth of the menace they face.
波兰首相唐纳德·图斯克于周四表示:“在任何情况下,我们都不会允许在我们的头顶上方、在波兰或欧洲没有发言权的情况下,为这一地区制定新的安全规则。”欧洲官员已经警告不要指望立即做出选择,尽管提名正纷至沓来。
Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland said on Thursday, “Under no circumstances will we allow new security rules for this part of the world to be established over our heads, without Poland or Europe having a say.”European officials have already warned not to expect an immediate choice, though nominations are pouring in.
欧盟政治领导机构负责人安东尼奥·科斯塔经常被提及为一个可能的人选。卢森堡首相弗里登暗示科斯塔应该成为该集团的代表。捷克共和国首相安德烈什·巴比什抛出了几个人选,包括图斯克和意大利首相焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼。几位领导人暗示,他们更有可能选出一个代表团而不是个人。
António Costa, president of the European Union’s political leadership arm, comes up frequently as a possibility. Mr. Frieden, the Luxembourg prime minister, has suggested that Mr. Costa should be the bloc’s representative. Prime Minister Andrej Babis of the Czech Republic threw out a handful of names, including Mr. Tusk and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy. Several leaders suggested that they were more likely to settle on a group than a single person.
“这不一定是一个人,但那张桌子上应该有来自欧盟的清晰、连贯的领导层,”爱尔兰领导人米歇尔·马丁本周对记者表示。
“It’s not necessarily one person, but there should be a clear, coherent leadership, from the European Union, at that table,” Micheal Martin, the Irish leader, told reporters this week.
一种可能性是由欧洲大国、英国和北约的谈判人员组成一个团队,由科斯塔作为核心人物领导。科斯塔本人也暗示了潜在的分组。
One possibility could be a team of negotiators from Europe’s large nations, Britain and NATO, led by Mr. Costa as a central figure. Mr. Costa himself alluded to a potential grouping.
“不能在没有欧洲声音上桌的情况下讨论欧洲的安全——那个欧洲声音需要是欧洲国家、欧盟和北约之间共同努力的团队成果,”他说。
“Europe’s security cannot be discussed without a European voice at the table — that European voice needs to be a team effort between European nations, the European Union and NATO,” he said.
两名欧洲外交官表示,人们的一个担忧是科斯塔可能缺乏给俄罗斯人和美国人留下深刻印象的国际声望。这些外交官在匿名谈论私人对话时发表了上述言论。
Two European diplomats said that one concern is that Mr. Costa may lack the international stature to impress the Russians and Americans. The diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.
科斯塔长期以来一直认为,欧盟必须参与讨论,因为该集团控制着莫斯科希望解除的大量对俄制裁。另一个因素是乌克兰潜在的欧盟成员国身份,基辅希望以此作为安全保障。
Mr. Costa has long argued that the European Union must be represented in discussions because the bloc controls a large set of sanctions against Russia, which Moscow wants rolled back. Another factor is Ukraine’s potential E.U. membership, which Kyiv wants as a security guarantee.
让事情变得复杂的是,许多欧洲官员甚至反对在莫斯科同意停火之前与俄罗斯开启讨论。
Complicating matters, many European officials have opposed even opening discussions with Russia before Moscow agrees to a cease-fire.
当科斯塔的办公室在6月试图重新打开与俄罗斯的沟通渠道时,法国和德国批评他越权。
When Mr. Costa’s office tried in June to reopen lines of communication with Russia, France and Germany criticized him for overreaching.
这两名欧洲外交官暗示,这些讨论可能会有不同的发展,因为现在上谈判桌的机会似乎是现实的,而且欧洲的安全显然悬于一线。
These discussions might unfold differently, the two European diplomats suggested, because the chance of sitting at the table now seems realistic and Europe’s security is clearly on the line.
“我们会弄清楚谁来代表欧洲,”丹麦首相梅特·弗雷泽里克森于周四表示。“在民主国家,会有讨论,但我非常确信我们会找到前进的道路。”这并不意味着过程不会动荡。杰娜·斯米亚莱克是《时报》布鲁塞尔分社长。
“We will figure out who to represent Europe,” Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark said on Thursday. “In democracies, there will be discussions, but I’m pretty sure we will find a way forward.”That doesn’t mean it won’t be tumultuous. Jeanna Smialek is the Brussels bureau chief for The Times.