
10月批发价格涨幅低于预期,正值美联储权衡下一步利率举措之际。
Wholesale prices increased less than expected in October as the Federal Reserve contemplates its next move on interest rates.
劳工统计局周五报告称,衡量国内生产商在产品到达消费者手中前所获价格的生产者价格指数(PPI)经季节性调整后环比上涨0.3%,道琼斯共识预期为上涨0.4%。剔除食品和能源后,核心PPI上涨0.3%,符合预期。
The producer price index, which measures the prices domestic producers get for their products before they reach the consumer, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, against the Dow Jones consensus for a 0.4% increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Stripping out food and energy, core PPI posted a 0.3% gain, meeting expectations.
按年率计算,总体PPI加速上涨6.5%,较上月提高0.2个百分点,为2022年11月以来最高年率。
On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated 6.5%, up 0.2 percentage point for the highest annual rate since November 2022.
该报告发布于美联储下一次政策会议(12月8日至9日)前几周。市场完全消化了央行关键隔夜拆借利率上调25个基点的预期,且存在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)可能选择加息50个基点的微弱可能性。数据公布后,股指期货扩大涨幅,国债收益率好坏参半。本周早些时候,劳工统计局报告称现金层面的通胀高于预期。
The report comes just a few weeks ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting Dec. 8-9. Markets are fully pricing in a quarter percentage point increase in the central bank's key overnight borrowing rate, with slight odds that the Federal Open Market Committee might opt for a half-point hike. Stock market futures added to gains following the release while Treasury yields were mixed. Earlier this week, the BLS reported that inflation at the cash was hotter than expected.
总体消费者价格指数(CPI)10月环比上涨0.4%,核心CPI上涨0.3%,均比预期高出0.1个百分点。因2025年10月政府停摆,劳工统计局未能收集部分数据,遂未发布CPI 12个月通胀数据。不过,数据显示美联储距离其2%通胀目标仍有相当距离。
The headline consumer price index saw a 0.4% increase in October while core was up 0.3%, both 0.1 percentage point higher than expected. Because of the government shutdown in October 2025, the BLS couldn't collect some data and refrained from putting out a 12-month inflation figure for CPI. However, the figures showed that the Fed remains a good distance from its 2% inflation goal.
此外,决策者开始担忧,伊朗战争和燃料价格上涨引发的通胀,加上特朗普总统的关税,正开始向经济传导。美联储通常会透视此类价格压力,将其视为暂时性因素,但通胀的广度可能表明通胀正变得更加根深蒂固。
Moreover, policymakers are beginning to worry that inflation generated by the Iran war and higher fuel prices, along with President Donald Trump's tariffs, are beginning to spread through the economy. The Fed generally would look through such price pressures as temporary, but the breadth of inflation could indicate that inflation is becoming more entrenched.
芝加哥联储主席奥斯汀·古尔斯比周五在接受CNBC采访时表示:“我们已经连续几个月看到了一些麻烦的迹象。如果你看通胀的广度,不仅仅是我们高于目标且已经持续了一段时间。而是在不受油价驱动、也不受关税驱动的类别中,你仍然看到进展停滞,在某些情况下甚至朝着错误的方向发展。”剔除食品、能源和贸易服务后,10月PPI上涨0.5%。
"We've had some signs of trouble now for several months in a row," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a CNBC interview Friday. "If you look at how broad-based the inflation is, it's not just that we're above the target and have been for some time. It's that in categories that are not driven by oil prices and not driven by tariffs, you're still seeing stalled progress and in some cases going the wrong way." Stripping out food, energy and trade services, PPI saw an increase of 0.5% in October.
10月商品价格上涨0.5%,其中超过60%的涨幅由除食品和能源以外的商品推动,该类别实际下降了0.1%。按年率计算,商品指数飙升10.2%,为自2022年10月以来最大的12个月涨幅。
Goods prices increased 0.5% in October, with more than 60% of that move driven by goods excluding food and energy, which actually saw a 0.1% decrease. On an annual basis, the goods index jumped 10.2%, the biggest 12-month surge since October 2022.
最终需求服务价格上涨0.2%,主要与运输和仓储服务有关,其中卡车货运价格上涨3.9%。
Final demand services prices increased 0.2%, most of which was linked to transportation and warehousing services, and within that category a 3.9% gain in truck transportation of freight.
古尔斯比说:“我们高于2%已经将近六年了,虽然有时我们在取得进展,但最近我们没有取得任何进展,如果有的话,情况正在朝着错误的方向发展。通胀正在上升;它被证明比我们最初根据供给冲击预测的要顽固得多。”
"We've been above 2% for almost six years, and while it sometimes we were making progress, lately we're not making any progress, and if anything, it's going the wrong way," Goolsbee said. "Inflation is rising; it's it's proved far more persistent than we predicted at the beginning from the supply shocks." This is breaking news.