一项新的研究声称，中国公司开发的领先开放权重模型，是使用美国政府限制运往其最大地缘政治对手的英伟达芯片训练而成的。
The leading open-weight models developed by Chinese companies were trained on Nvidia chips that the US government restricted from shipping to its largest geopolitical rival, a new research effort claims.
中国前沿实验室似乎广泛获取 Blackwell GPU，这凸显了这家领先芯片设计商所面临问题的严重性。本周，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋离开了公司，此前他承认与 Megaspeed 公司高管 Alice Huang 有染，该公司被指控将英伟达芯片走私到中国。Alice Huang 还被指控是中国情报机构的特工。
The apparently widespread access to Blackwell GPUs among Chinese frontier labs shows the magnitude of the problem facing the leading chip designer. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang left the company this week after admitting to his affair with Alice Huang, executive of Megaspeed, a company implicated in smuggling Nvidia chips into China. Alice Huang has also been alleged to be an agent of China’s intelligence service.
虽然黄仁勋与一名客户和两名员工的关系引发了最多公众关注，但英伟达可能因违反出口管制而承担的企业责任，很可能也促成了公司与黄仁勋分道扬镳的决定。
While Jensen Huang’s relationships with a customer and two employees have drawn the most public interest, Nvidia’s potential corporate liability for export control violations likely factored into its decision to part ways with Huang.
美国出口管制旨在保护该国在人工智能能力方面对中国的领先地位，但黄仁勋长期以来一直寻求开放该市场。Blackwell GPU 被禁止出口到中国或中国拥有的公司，而特朗普政府允许英伟达出口性能较弱的 H200 芯片，前提是货物走迂回的航运路线，以便美国可以征收 25% 的关税。
US export controls are intended to protect the country’s leadership in AI capabilities against China, but Huang has long sought to open up that market. Blackwell GPUs are banned from export to China or Chinese-owned firms, while the Trump administration allows Nvidia to export the H200, a less powerful chip, provided shipments take a circuitous shipping route that allows the US to claim a 25% tariff.
曾任 OpenAI 研究人员、现领导非营利研究组织 Unemployment Labs 的 Will DePue，分析了 DeepSeek、Moonshot AI、MiniMax 和蚂蚁集团公开发布的大型语言模型的权重——即其独特结构。权重仍反映了用于训练它们的芯片配置，DePue 能够找到有力证据表明，最受关注的模型，包括 Moonshot 的 Kimi 的 K3 版本和 DeepSeek 的 V4 模型，都带有在 Blackwell 芯片上训练的痕迹。
Will DePue, a former OpenAI researcher who leads the nonprofit research group Unemployment Labs, analyzed the weights—the unique structure—of large language models released openly by DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, MiniMax and Ant Group. The weights still reflect the configurations of the chips used to train them, and DePue was able to find compelling evidence that the most closely watched models, including Moonshot’s Kimi’s K3 releases and DeepSeek’s V4 models, bear fingerprints from training on Blackwell chips.
白宫技术顾问迈克尔·克拉齐奥斯今年早些时候表示，据美国情报来源透露，Moonshot 使用了被出口禁令禁止的英伟达芯片。非营利研究组织 Epoch AI 估计，2024 年和 2025 年，约 200 万颗先进芯片通过旨在隐瞒最终目的地的方案流入中国。
White House technology adviser Michael Kratsios said earlier this year that Moonshot had used export-banned Nvidia chips, citing US intelligence sources. Epoch AI, a nonprofit research organization, estimates that about two million advanced chips entered China in 2024 and 2025 through schemes designed to hide their final destination.
这并不意味着这些模型完全是在英伟达芯片上训练的，也不一定意味着违反了出口管制法律；这些芯片可能位于离岸数据中心，这已被证明是中国企业获取算力的一种流行方式，并在马来西亚推动了一场产业革命。Epoch 的数据估计，2024 年和 2025 年，马来西亚进口了 27.5 万颗英伟达 AI 加速器。
That doesn’t mean that these models were trained entirely on Nvidia chips, or that export control laws were necessarily violated; the chips could have been in an offshore data center, which has proven a popular way for Chinese firms to access compute and driven an industrial revolution in Malaysia. Epoch’s data estimates that 275,000 Nvidia AI accelerators were imported to Malaysia in 2024 and 2025.
然而，出口禁令的表面目标正是防止这种情况：中国 AI 实验室利用最强大的芯片进行训练。鹰派人士长期以来一直呼吁对芯片的使用者实施更严格的管控，而不仅仅是管控芯片的所有者或安装地点。
However, the ostensible goal of the export bans is to prevent exactly that: Chinese AI labs training on the most powerful chips. China hawks have long called for stronger controls on who uses chips, not just who owns them or where they are installed.
“如果我们在乎美国的技术优势，对我来说，不允许中国公司在中国大陆或香港、澳门获取芯片，却说‘其实，如果你去马来西亚，就可以随心所欲’，这毫无道理，”乔治城大学安全与新兴技术中心研究员萨姆·布雷斯尼克今年夏天对 TechCrunch 表示。
“If we care about the U.S. tech edge, it doesn’t make any sense to me that you would not allow Chinese companies to access chips in mainland China or Hong Kong and Macau, but then say, actually, if you just go over to Malaysia, you can do whatever you want,” Sam Bresnick, a researcher at the Georgetown Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told TechCrunch this summer.
由黄爱丽丝领导的 Megaspeed 公司多年来一直处于该贸易的中心，通过其子公司 Speedmatrix 运作，并一直是美国和新加坡政府调查的对象。周五，彭博社还报道称，一家与黄爱丽丝有关联的公司涉嫌将被禁的英伟达芯片走私到上海的一个数据中心。
Megaspeed, the company led by Alice Huang, has been at the center of that trade for several years through its subsidiary Speedmatrix, and has been the subject of investigations by both the US and Singaporean government. Friday, Bloomberg also reported that a company with links to Alice Huang was involved in smuggling banned Nvidia chips to a data center in Shanghai.
5月，做空研究机构Culper发布报告称，英伟达面临“中国问题”，因为其收入的很大一部分由中国需求驱动，无论是通过远程数据中心，还是通过违反美国法律的走私渠道。报告详述了Megaspeed与英伟达的关系，并指控黄爱丽丝的公司由中国企业支持，这些企业被禁止获取美国芯片。
In May, the short-selling research firm Culper published a report arguing that Nvidia had a “China problem” because a significant share of its revenue was driven by Chinese demand, either through remote data centers or smuggling in violation of US law. It detailed Megaspeed’s relationship with Nvidia and alleged that Alice Huang’s companies are backed by Chinese firms that are barred from accessing US chips.
具有讽刺意味的是，做空机构Culper看空英伟达，并非基于预期美国政府会进行打压。相反，其关注点在于中国政府对禁令的回应，即重振国内芯片产业。
Ironically, short-seller Culper’s bet against Nvidia wasn’t driven by the expectation of a US government crackdown. Instead, it was focused on the Chinese government’s response to the bans, which was to recommit to its domestic chip industry.
如果中国成功，数十亿美元的中国对英伟达芯片的需求可能会枯竭。据报道，约60万颗H200芯片囤积在香港，等待运往中国。虽然中国公司可能想要这些芯片，但观察人士对于为何它们未获准进口并无共识。
If China succeeds, billions of dollars in Chinese demand for Nvidia chips could dry up. Some 600,000 H200 chips are reportedly stockpiled in Hong Kong, awaiting shipment into China. While Chinese companies might want the chips, observers have no consensus on why they’ve haven’t been cleared for import.
专注于美中技术政策的斯坦福大学研究学者Graham Webster表示，他不认同扣留芯片会刺激国产化的观点，因为芯片需求量极大。其他关于滞留原因的理论包括：为可能达成的贸易协议做准备，该协议将涉及大量进口美国商品；或担心芯片中存在潜在的监控技术。
Graham Webster, a research scholar at Stanford who focuses on US-China technology policy, said he doesn’t buy the idea that holding the chips back would drive domestic production, since demand for chips is so large. Other theories for the hold-up include preparation for a potential trade deal that would involve importing a large volume of US goods, or concerns about potential surveillance technology in the chips.
目前，美国公司对追踪客户如何使用AI芯片等受控商品的义务有限。然而，黄仁勋与黄爱丽丝在个人和职业上的纠葛，如果政府调查人员确认发生了芯片走私且黄仁勋知情，将给英伟达带来大得多的麻烦。英伟达和黄仁勋都为Megaspeed的数据中心背书，称英伟达官员曾实地考察以确认其合法性。
For now, US companies have limited obligations to track what their customers do with controlled goods like AI chips. However, Jensen Huang’s personal and professional entanglements with Alice Huang create a much bigger problem for Nvidia if government investigators confirm that chip smuggling took place and that he was aware of it. Nvidia and Huang have both vouched for Megaspeed’s data centers, saying Nvidia officials had visited them to confirm they were legitimate.
美国政府对英伟达和Megaspeed的处理方式也正受到审查。据报道，负责监管芯片出口许可机构的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克可能面临失去职位的风险，原因是他的调查人员未能发现可疑的芯片买家，且与英伟达官员关系过于密切。
The US government’s treatment of Nvidia and Megaspeed is also under scrutiny. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, who oversees the agencies that licensing chip exports, could reportedly lose his job after reports that his investigators failed to uncover suspicious chip buyers and were too cozy with Nvidia officials.