字号·· | 护眼
彭博社

民主党人胜选连连,却担忧胜利转瞬即逝Flush With Wins, Democrats Confront Fear of Fleeting Success

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

民主党人本周齐聚一堂,庆祝一代人以来最大的选举胜利,同时直面挥之不去的焦虑——即有可能将胜利果实尽数挥霍。

Democrats gathered this week to celebrate their biggest electoral triumph in a generation and confront an inescapable anxiety — the risk of squandering it all.

数十名党内议员、幕僚和忠诚支持者云集丹佛,出席由党内一个温和派团体主办的会议。与会者盘点了上周中期选举中取得的显著突破,会议期间也时不时暴露出党内不断扩大的“大帐篷”内部存在的分歧。潜在的2028年总统竞选人也现身会场。

周四至周五两天,现场气氛在欢欣鼓舞与情感宣泄之间摇摆。民主党在众参两院均赢得压倒性多数,并在几周前还被视为痴人说梦的共和党铁票仓中取得胜利。

Scores of party lawmakers, staffers and faithful descended on Denver for a conference hosted by one of the party’s moderate groups that featured potential 2028 contenders, took stock of the remarkable breakthroughs in the midterm vote a week earlier — and, at times, laid bare the disagreements in the party’s expanding tent. The mood across Thursday and Friday veered between jubilation and catharsis after Democrats won commanding majorities in the US House and Senate and overwhelmed Republican strongholds with victories that had been dismissed as magical thinking just weeks earlier.

当选参议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科11月12日在丹佛举行的民主党“下一步是什么”会议上发言。Senator-elect James Talarico speaks during the Democratic Party’s What’s Next conference in Denver on Nov. 12.

然而,在唐纳德·特朗普总统政治生涯已逾十年的背景下,这份喜悦伴随着接连不断的警告,以及一种近乎政党层面的“表现焦虑”。会议议程的安排恰如其分地反映了这一点:与会发言人表示,如果民主党无法迅速兑现让美国人生活更负担得起的承诺,并避免陷入意识形态纯洁性考验的泥沟,这份成功将昙花一现。

Yet the joy, a decade into President Donald Trump’s political career, was punctuated by a drumbeat of warnings and a sort of party performance anxiety. Speakers at the convention — aptly named — said the success would be fleeting if Democrats can’t quickly deliver on making Americans’ lives more affordable and avoid bogging down in ideological purity tests.

“我们需要一出场就表明,我们是来把钱装回民众腰包的,”前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格在演讲后对记者表示,他被广泛视为正在为2028年总统竞选做准备。他警告说,在特朗普时代,常规手段已不足够应对。

“We need to come out of the gate showing that we are here to put money back in people’s pockets,” former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, widely seen as preparing a 2028 presidential run, told reporters after a speech in which he warned that conventional approaches aren’t enough in the Trump era.

“这是我们终于要表现得像真的相信‘美国政治体制已然崩溃’这一说法的时候了,”他说。

“This is the time to finally act like we believe it when we say the American political system is broken,” he said.

这支重振旗鼓的政党能否将2026年竞选期的信息纪律延续至下届国会,目前仍不得而知,因为士气高涨的新国会多数派可能会选择推行一个庞杂的议程。

Whether the resurgent party can carry the 2026 campaign’s message discipline into the next Congress remains unclear as an energized new congressional majority may opt to pursue a sprawling agenda.

在丹佛,旨在应对成本问题的政策提案涵盖了大规模住房计划、恢复医疗补助资金、处方药援助、食品杂货援助、联邦就业计划、禁止自动语音电话,以及发放“AI 红利”。

In Denver, policy pitches to address costs ran from a major housing effort, restored Medicaid funding and prescription drug assistance to grocery assistance, a federal jobs program, banning robocalls and giving out an “AI dividend.”

“关键是成本,对吧?这就是问题所在,”新奥尔良前市长米奇·兰德留说。“我们真的需要聚焦于民众对我们说的,那就是成本。”然而,民主党在如何做到这一点上——以及如何与特朗普合作上——仍远未达成共识,特朗普任期还剩两年,已在椭圆形办公室备好了红色的“VETO(否决)”帽子。

“It’s cost, right? That is the issue,” said former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu. “We need to really focus on what the people said to us, which is cost.”Yet the party remains far from consensus on how to do that — and how closely to work with Trump, who has two years left in office and has stocked the Oval Office with red “VETO” caps.

“美国民众等不了两年才看到变革,所以我们必须与特朗普总统合作,”当选参议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科说,现场响起稀稀拉拉的掌声。“我们应让他总统任期最后两年,成为美国历史上任何总统任期中最富有成效的两年。”其他发言人则对向特朗普伸出橄榄枝表示反对。

“The American people cannot wait two years for change, so we must work with President Trump,” Senator-elect James Talarico said to tepid applause. “We should make the final two years of his presidency the most productive of any presidency in American history.”Other speakers balked at extending Trump an olive branch.

“我给塔拉里科参议员的建议是,如果特朗普想与我们合作,我们将提出议程,由他来签署,”新泽西州长米基·谢里尔说。

“My advice to Senator Talarico is, if Trump wants to work with us, we will lay out the agenda, and he can sign it,” New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill said.

布蒂吉格和弗吉尼亚州长阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格等与会者表示,明年由民主党主导的国会应接连通过法案,迫使特朗普要么签署,要么否决。

Buttigieg and Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger were among attendees saying next year’s Democratic-led Congress should pass bill after bill and force Trump to either sign or veto.

“不要预先谈判,不要讨论,不要‘哦,你会做这个吗,你会做那个吗?’直接通过法案,”斯潘伯格说。“最终,他会想搞个农业签署仪式的。”但就在一些人敦促聚焦于负担能力时,另一些人却踩了刹车。“现在不是我们对伸张正义的呼吁保持沉默的时候,”平等司法倡议创始人布莱恩·史蒂文森说。

“No pre-negotiations, no discussions, no, ‘Oh will you do this, will you do that?’ Pass a bill,” Spanberger said. “Eventually, he’ll want to do ag ceremony.”But as some urged a narrow focus on affordability, others pumped the brakes. “This is not a time for us to become silent about the call to do justice,” Bryan Stevenson, founder of the Equal Justice Initiative, said.

加利福尼亚州众议员罗·卡纳是众多潜在 2028 年总统候选人之一,他背离了温和派的信息。

California Representative Ro Khanna, one of the many potential 2028 candidates, bucked the moderates’ message.

“我支持大帐篷,但不是浅帐篷,”他说。“大帐篷不能意味着我们为了政治权宜而稀释了原则。” 进步派的影响力也在为参议员克里斯·范霍伦欢呼的一幕中展露无遗,后者已向查克·舒默发起挑战,争夺下一任参议院多数党领袖职位。哈基姆·杰弗里斯将于1月成为首位非裔众议院议长,其发言曾被抗议者打断,后者要求在加沙问题上采取行动,并呼吁推进“绿色新政”和全民医保等进步派优先事项。

“I’m all for a big tent, but not a shallow one,” he said. “A big tent cannot mean that we’ve watered down principle for political expediency.”The progressive flank’s clout was also on display in a round of cheers for Senator Chris Van Hollen, who has challenged Chuck Schumer as incoming Senate majority leader. Hakeem Jeffries, poised to become the first Black speaker of the House in January, was interrupted by protesters demanding action on Gaza and calling for progressive priorities like a “Green New Deal” and universal Medicare.

一些与会的民主党人看到了取得更直接突破的机会,例如在跛脚鸭国会期间通过许可法案,以及利用《国防授权法案》谈判的窗口期来遏制对伊朗的战争。

Some Democrats in Denver saw an opportunity for more immediate breakthroughs, such as passing a permitting bill in the lame-duck Congress and a window to leverage talks on the National Defense Authorization Act to curtail the war in Iran.

这项酝酿已久的许可法案“是我们现在能做的最具体的事情,能降低电力成本,”特拉华州参议员克里斯·库恩斯说。“我们需要让人看到我们在努力。” 尽管如此,该党仍允许自己有放纵的时刻。宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗,另一位权衡2028年参选的人物,表示该党现在可以在总统大选中“争取370张”选举人票——而获胜只需270张。

The long-simmering permitting bill “is the most concrete thing we can do right now that’ll lower electricity costs,” said Delaware Senator Chris Coons. “We need to get caught trying.”Still, the party allowed itself moments of indulgence. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, another figure weighing a 2028 bid, said it could now “swing for 370” Electoral College votes in the presidential election — where 270 is enough to win.

从某些方面看,这次聚会是多年酝酿的结果。民主党因新冠疫情放弃了2020年完整的全国代表大会,而2024年则在乔·拜登总统突然退出总统竞选、紧急换上副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的阴影下举行了大会。而特朗普即将挑战历史和政治规律,赢得第二个任期。

In some ways, the gathering was years in the making. Democrats abandoned a full 2020 convention because of coronavirus pandemic and, in 2024, held one under the pall of President Joe Biden’s abrupt exit from the presidential race and the sudden swap to Vice President Kamala Harris. And Trump was about defy history and political gravity to win a second term.

“感觉像是退烧了,”专注于拉美裔选民研究的机构Equis联合创始人斯蒂芬妮·瓦伦西亚说。但她警告道,“我们党在选民面前处于观察期,这些选民可能并不太喜欢我们。” 几位与会者表示他们正在考虑2028年参选或留有余地:夏皮罗、布克、兰德鲁、康纳、亚利桑那州参议员鲁本·加列戈和密歇根州参议员埃利萨·斯洛特金等人均在其中。

“It feels like a fever has broken,” said Stephanie Valencia, co-founder of Equis, a research group focused on Latino voters. But, she warned, “our party is on probation with voters who might not like us very much.”Several attendees said they’re considering 2028 bids or left the door open: Shapiro, Booker, Landrieu, Khanna, Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego and Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin were among them.

皮特·布蒂吉格11月13日在丹佛举行的“下一步是什么”会议期间向媒体成员讲话。Pete Buttigieg speaks to members of the media during the What’s Next conference in Denver on Nov. 13.

前罗德岛州长吉娜·雷蒙多并未完全排除这种可能性。参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克回避了这个问题,尽管他已为此打下基础。

Former Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo didn’t rule it out entirely. Senator Raphael Warnock sidestepped the question, though he has laid groundwork.

其他人则抓住这种角逐的机会,试图逼问大腕人物会放弃党内正统的哪些要素。“告诉我们你们将不再允许哪些想法,那些违背常识或行不通的想法,”马萨诸塞州众议员杰克·奥克林克说。

Others seized on the jockeying to try to pin down the big names on which elements of party orthodoxy they’d abandon. “Tell us which ideas you’ll stop giving permission to, the ones that defy common sense or don’t work,” Representative Jake Auchincloss of Massachusetts said.

另一个酝酿中的争议是民主党应多大力度调查特朗普及其内阁。与会者在采访中淡化了第三次弹劾特朗普的可能性和明智性,称定罪无望。

Another simmering dispute is over how aggressively Democrats should investigate Trump and his cabinet. In interviews, attendees downplayed the likelihood and wisdom of impeaching Trump a third time, saying there’s no prospect of conviction.

另一些人则主张,腐败调查和解决民生负担的议程可以并行不悖。“将追究腐败正义与推行应对高物价的民意经济政策对立起来,这是一个完全虚假且空洞的二元对立,”众议员杰米·拉斯金说,他极有可能成为下一任众议院司法委员会主席。

Others argued that corruption inquiries and an affordability agenda can go hand in hand. “This is an utterly false and empty dichotomy between pursuing justice against corruption or pursuing popular economic policies against unaffordability,” said Representative Jamie Raskin, likely the next chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.

布蒂吉格概括了民主党内部矛盾的心态,他告诉同僚“感到欣慰没关系”,但行动的窗口期就在当下。“我们获胜并非因为美国突然爱上了民主党,”布蒂吉格说。

Buttigieg summed up the party’s conflicting emotions by telling fellow Democrats it’s “OK to rejoice,” but that the window to act is now. “We did not win because America suddenly fell in love with the Democratic Party,” Buttigieg said.

阅读媒体原文 ↗