丹佛 —— 在唐纳德·特朗普的美国，快乐对民主党人来说可能只是昙花一现的感觉。
DENVER — Happiness risks being a fleeting feeling for Democrats in Donald Trump’s America.
多年来，民主党一直在努力寻找击败和制衡这位前任兼现任总统的办法，上周中期选举出现的大规模蓝色浪潮，让他们体会到了久违的欣喜。
After years of struggling to find a way to defeat and counter the past and present president, the wide-blue wave of last week’s midterms has given Democrats a sense of elation that has long eluded them.
当党内骨干在科罗拉多州聚会，参加中期选举后的“下一步怎么走”活动时，问题很快变成了：选民到底在表达什么？选举结果是显示民主党实力增强，还是主要反映特朗普及其盟友陷入困境？
As party faithful gathered in Colorado for a post-midterm “What’s Next” event, the question quickly became what voters were really saying, and whether the results were a sign of Democratic strength, or primarily of the struggles of Trump and his allies.
“我们不仅赢了，而且是彻底击败了他们，因此人们不再认为我们软弱、‘觉醒’且是一群失败者，”新奥尔良前市长米奇·兰德留说，他正考虑代表民主党角逐白宫。“但这并不意味着他们信任我们、相信我们。他们只是觉得‘我再给你们一次机会’，现在我们必须证明，我们配得上他们给我们的东西。” 近期历史给民主党敲响了警钟。
“Not only did we win, we cleaned their clock, and so as a consequence, people think that we’re not weak, woke and losers anymore,” said Mitch Landrieu, the former mayor of New Orleans, who is eying a Democratic run for the White House. “Now, it doesn’t mean that they believe in us and they trust us. They just believe ‘I’m going to give you another chance’ and now we have to demonstrate that we deserve what it is that they gave us.”Recent history gives Democrats reason for caution.
特朗普 2016 年首次获胜，让共和党统一掌控了华盛顿。两年后的中期选举轻松把众议院交给了民主党，但共和党却扩大了在参议院的多数优势。2020 年民主党夺回白宫并全面掌控华盛顿时，疫情和 2021 年 1 月 6 日冲击美国国会大厦事件的余波，给胜利的消息蒙上了阴影。
Trump’s first victory in 2016 gave Republicans unified control of Washington. The midterms two years later easily handed Democrats the House, but Republicans added to their Senate majority. And when Democrats won back the White House and full control of Washington in 2020, the pandemic and the fallout from the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol shadowed the news of victory.
如今，民主党正处于几十年来未见的转折点。它有机会改变外界对该党的看法 —— 就在两年前，该党在部分地区还是有毒的标签。生活成本高企和特朗普政府陷入与伊朗的战争，使这种机会成为可能。
Now the party is at a turning point it hasn’t seen in decades. It has a chance to change how people see a party that was toxic in parts of the country just two years ago. Cost-of-living woes and the Trump administration’s entanglement in the war with Iran helped make that possible.
民主党的旧包袱并未消失。其中一些可追溯至拜登时代，另一些则源于2010年“茶党”浪潮期间民主党在州立法机构失去的阵地——那时正值贝拉克·奥巴马担任总统的首个中期选举。尽管如此，全选票层面的胜利让民主党获得了一个契机，得以重建那些已变得脆弱破裂的选民关系。
The party’s old baggage hasn’t gone away, though. Some of it dates to the Biden era. Some goes back to the state-legislative ground Democrats lost in the 2010 Tea Party wave, during Barack Obama’s first midterm as president. Still, wins up and down the ballot have given Democrats an opening to rebuild relationships with voters that had grown brittle and fractured.
“民主党开始改变他们谈论的议题，”桑德拉·豪雷吉说，她上周赢得选举，将成为内华达州下一任副州长。2024年，特朗普成为自乔治·W·布什时代以来首位在总统大选中赢得该州的共和党人。“我们终于开始倾听选民的声音，而不是告诉他们该关心什么。”即使在中期选举之前，一些民主党人就担心大胜会掩盖该党的长期问题，而这些问题无法靠单次选举解决。
“Democrats started changing what they were speaking about,” said Sandra Jauregui, who won her race last week to become Nevada’s next lieutenant governor. In 2024, Trump became the first Republican since the George W. Bush era to carry the state in a presidential race. “We finally started listening to voters instead of telling them what they should care about.”Even before the midterms, some Democrats worried that big wins would hide the party’s longer-term problems, which no single election can fix.
他们还担心压倒性胜利会滋生过度自信。这可能损害该党在2028年夺回白宫的机会，进而也就失去了将“让美国再次伟大”运动推出政坛、使其成为历史名词的任何希望——因为他们将准备面对一位非特朗普的总统竞选对手。
They also worried that lopsided victories would breed overconfidence. That could hurt the party’s chances of winning back the White House in 2028, and with them any hope of pushing the MAGA movement out of politics and into the history books as they prepare to face someone other than Trump in a presidential campaign.
“民主党人肯定会无视任何教训，假设选民喜欢他们所有的一切，结果在2028年遭受毁灭性打击，”一名全国性共和党操盘手说。
“Dems are sure to ignore any lessons and assume that people like everything about them only to be devastated in 2028,” a national Republican operative said.
该党一些最引人注目的表现可能无法延续至2028年。上周在德克萨斯州的全州性胜利让民主党人设想该州在总统大选中转为蓝色，这将从根本上重塑通往270张选举人票和总统宝座的路径。但德克萨斯州的竞选成本极高，正如今年的参议院竞选所显示的那样。而且下一位共和党总统提名人不太可能背负肯·帕克顿那样的政治和公众包袱——这位州共和党籍检察长曾被弹劾并获无罪释放，在今秋的参议院竞选中落败。
Some of the party’s most standout performances may not carry over to 2028. Last week’s statewide wins in Texas have Democrats imagining the state going blue in a presidential race, which would fundamentally redraw the path to 270 electoral votes and the presidency. But Texas is enormously expensive to compete in, as this year’s Senate race showed. And the next Republican presidential nominee is unlikely to carry the political and public baggage of Ken Paxton, the state’s impeached and acquitted GOP attorney general who lost the Senate race this fall.
堪萨斯州情况类似。民主党已在该州连续三次赢得州长选举，选民也首次在近90年里将一名温和派民主党人送入联邦参议院。但在大选年，堪萨斯州依然稳稳支持共和党。
Kansas is similar. Democrats have now won the governor’s office in the last three elections there, and voters are sending a moderate from the party to the U.S. Senate for the first time in almost 90 years. But in presidential years, Kansas remains comfortably Republican.
美国政治也不是在真空中发生的。民主党即将重回其惯常的内斗：围绕信息传递、策略以及进步派与温和派定位的争论。但前进的道路也将取决于共和党的作为。
American politics doesn’t happen in a vacuum, either. Democrats are on track to soon be back to their usual fights over messaging, approach and progressive-versus-moderate positioning. But the path forward will also depend on what Republicans do.
2008年，在乔治·W·布什第二任期的2006年中期选举中惨败后，共和党实际上将时任总统推到了一边，不再视其为党内无可争议的领袖。
In 2008, after heavy losses in the 2006 midterms during George W. Bush’s second term, Republicans effectively pushed the incumbent aside as the party’s undisputed leader.
共和党或许会尝试对特朗普做同样的事。但这意味着要打破一种曾显脆弱的控制力。十年前，这位真人秀明星兼房地产大亨颠覆了共和党建制派，按自己的形象重塑了右翼。即使他在2020年大选失利、其支持者暴徒冲击国会大厦导致权力交接陷入混乱，他的掌控力依然稳固。随后他在2024年果断夺回白宫。
The GOP could try the same thing with Trump. But that would mean breaking a hold that once looked fragile. A decade ago, the reality television star and real estate mogul upended the Republican establishment and remade the right in his own image. His grip held even after he lost the 2020 election and a mob of his supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol and threw the transfer of power into chaos. Then he won back the White House in 2024 decisively.
民主党也有自己的警示信号。本月一些获胜者是通过与本党保持距离才赢得选举的。
Democrats have their own warning signs. Some of this month’s winners got there by keeping their distance from the party.
两党都面临信任赤字，这毫不奇怪。对民主党而言，讽刺的是，他们借助不满的前特朗普选民之助被推上权力宝座。他们现在有机会重建，而这得益于他们苦苦对抗多年的那个人。迫在眉睫的挑战是，他们究竟能为不满的公众切实兑现什么。
Both parties face a trust deficit, which is hardly surprising. The irony for Democrats is that they are being swept into power with help from dissatisfied former Trump voters. They now have a chance to rebuild because of the man they spent so long struggling to beat. The challenge fast approaching is what they can actually deliver to a dissatisfied public.
专注于培养年轻进步派人才的组织“Run for Something”负责人阿曼达·利特曼将上周的选举结果称为“非常像是一次以投票形式表达的原始呐喊”。
Amanda Litman, who leads the young progressive focused organization Run for Something, called last week’s results “very much a primal scream in the form of a vote.”
利特曼说：“足够多的民主党人能够以一种让他们成为选民可行宣泄渠道的方式，谈论这种愤怒的根源。但我认为这95%是‘把这些混蛋赶出去’，只有5%是‘好吧，让我们试试这些混蛋’。”
“Enough Democrats were able to talk about the source of that rage in a way that made them a viable outlet for voters to pick,” Litman said. “But I think it is 95% ‘throw the bums out,’ and 5%, ‘OK, let’s try these bums.’“