民主党在中期选举中取得压倒性胜利，部分得益于他们在提前投票中鲜为人知的决定性优势。
Democrats sailed to a crushing victory in the midterm elections, partly on the strength of their under-discussed decisive advantage in early voting.
民主党迄今已在包括德克萨斯州、堪萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州、爱荷华州、俄亥俄州和密西西比州在内的多个州翻转八个共和党参议院席位，并可能翻转阿拉斯加州。在众议院，民主党凭借13个百分点的普选票优势翻转了40多个席位。相比之下，共和党仅在缅因州翻转了一个众议院席位。州长选举的结果对共和党同样毁灭性。
Democrats so far flipped eight Republican Senate seats in states including Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and Mississippi, and could potentially flip Alaska. In the House, Democrats flipped over 40 seats with a 13 point generic ballot advantage. In contrast, Republicans flipped one congressional seat in Maine. Governors’ results were similarly devastating to the Republicans.
共和党近期选举表现不佳的一个鲜为人知的因素是，保守派拒绝以与自由派相同的比例提前投票。登记民主党人约占提前选票的45%，而共和党人约占30%，这几乎与他们的胜选幅度相同。
An underdiscussed factor in the Republican’s recent electoral underperformance was conservatives’ refusal to vote early at the same rate as liberals. Registered Democrats accounted for roughly 45 percent of early ballots versus 30 percent for Republicans, almost identical to their margin of victory.
德克萨斯州州长选举是这一结果的一个很好的例子。连任第三任期的共和党州长格雷格·阿博特在2026年获得的选票数与2022年大致相同。他被民主党人吉娜·希诺霍萨击败，后者在2026年获得的选票比2022年民主党候选人贝托·奥罗克多出近170万张。
A good example of this outcome comes from Texas’ governor race. Third term Republican Gov. Greg Abbot received roughly the same number of votes in 2026 than in 2022. He was defeated by Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who received almost 1.7 million more votes in 2026 than 2022 Democratic nominee Beto O’Rourke.
2026年的阿博特本可以轻松击败备受炒作的2022年奥罗克，但民主党受益于相较于上届中期选举的投票率激增。希诺霍萨在中期选举中获得的德克萨斯州选票，甚至超过了卡玛拉·哈里斯在总统选举中获得的选票。这一投票率激增对民主党的胜利贡献，大于摇摆选票。
A 2026 Abbot would have easily beaten much hyped 2022 O’Rourke, but Democrats benefited from surging turnout relative to the previous midterm. Hinojosa actually got more Texas votes during a midterm than Kamala Harris did in a presidential election. This turnout surge contributed more to the Democrats’ victories than swing votes.
如果共和党希望继续作为一个可行的政党存在，他们必须将提前投票作为核心投票工具加以采纳。为了防止民主党制造下一次“完美风暴”，这已不再是可选项。
If Republicans want to remain a viable political party, they simply must embrace early voting as a core turnout tool. It is no longer optional to prevent the Democrats’ next perfect storm.
选民动员的第一条原则，就是让自己人尽可能方便地投票，同时尽可能少花钱。民主党力求获胜，而共和党几乎连战场都没上。民主党运营整套机构，在提前投票期间把选民送到投票站，而大多数共和党的投票动员行动实际上都外包了。
The first rule of voter mobilization is to make it as easy as possible for your people to vote while spending as little as possible. Democrats play to win, while Republicans aren’t even really on the field. Democrats operate whole enterprises driving their voters to the polls during early voting, while most Republican turnout operations are effectively outsourced.
提前投票具有显著的规模经济优势，能让政党的投票动员行动花更少的钱办更多的事。
Early voting has a serious economy of scale advantage, allowing a political party’s turnout operations to get more bang for their buck.
雇10辆面包车只用一天、跑10趟、运送100人去投票，比雇一辆面包车在整个提前投票期间使用、跑100趟，每个选民的成本更高。前者每美元的效率远不如后者，远不如依赖单日冲刺。
It is simply more expensive per voter to hire 10 vans for a single day for 10 trips moving 100 people to the polls, rather than hiring just one van for the entire early voting period and using it 100 times over the course of that much greater length of time. This is vastly more efficient per dollar than relying on a single day surge.
如果充分接受提前投票，它实际上可能对共和党更有利，因为共和党主导的州就业率更高，共和党人更可能活跃于宗教社区、已婚并有孩子。自由派更可能单身、没有孩子，而自由派主导的州，更多人住在父母的地下室里，在社交媒体上发帖，作为一种替代。
If fully embraced, early voting could actually be more of an advantage for Republicans, because Republican-led states have higher rates of employment and Republicans are more likely to be active in a religious community, be married and have children. Liberals are more likely to be single, childless and states led by liberals have more people living in their parents’ basements and posting on social media as a kind of substitute.
过忙碌、充实的生活是件好事，与保守派比自由派更快乐、更满足、心理健康更好有关。但这也意味着，保守派花在政治上的时间更少，因为生活中有其他优先事项，没时间去投票。
Living a busy, productive life is a good thing and related to conservatives’ being happier, more satisfied, and having better mental health than liberals. But it also means that conservatives have less time to obsess over politics, and less time to vote out of competing life priorities.
就个人而言，若不是提前投票，我本会因家人流感而错过弗吉尼亚州2025年的选举。提前投票的灵活性，让那些生活充实、家庭日程多变的人更容易投票，而这类人大多投共和党的票。我也曾被许多选民亲自告知，他们将在选举日“按上帝的意愿”投票，因此我深知改变这一偏好的难度。
On a personal note, I would have missed Virginia’s 2025 election due to a family flu if I hadn’t banked my vote early. The flexibility of early voting makes casting a ballot easier for people living full lives with changing family schedules, the kind of people who mostly vote Republican. I have also been personally told by many voters that they’ll vote on election day “as God intended,” so I’m well aware of the difficulty in altering this preference.
共和党并非第一次因未能采纳提前投票而输掉本可赢得的选举。2022年，内华达州民主党参议员卡瑟琳·科尔特·马斯托以微弱优势击败共和党候选人亚当·拉克萨尔连任，很可能是因为一场严重的暴风雪。拉克萨尔甚至发推文发布了“天气警报”。这很重要。一项研究发现，每下降一英寸降雨，投票率就下降近1%，每下降一英寸降雪，投票率就下降0.5%。
This isn’t the first time Republicans lost a winnable race due to failures adopting early voting. Nevada Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto narrowly won reelection in 2022 over Republican nominee Adam Laxalt likely due to a serious snowstorm. Laxalt even tweeted a “weather alert.”This matters. One study found that for every inch of rainfall, turnout decreases by nearly 1 percent, and for every inch of snowfall it decreases by half a percent.
考虑到共和党目前在选举日投票中获得的比例要大得多，可以说，那场风暴让共和党丢掉了一个参议席，这绝非夸张。只要共和党严重依赖选举日的投票率，他们的命运就实实在在掌握在天气面前。
Given how Republicans currently win a much larger percentage of the Election Day vote, it isn’t an exaggeration to say that storm cost Republicans a Senate seat. As long as Republicans rely heavily on Election Day turnout, their fate is literally at the mercy of the weather.
2024年，特朗普和共和党全国委员会更积极地鼓励提前投票，因此我们的提前投票数字上升，缩小了民主党的提前优势，最终取得了选举胜利。2026年并未尝试过类似规模的举措。
In 2024, Trump and the Republican National Committee more actively encouraged early voting, so our early vote numbers rose and narrowed Democrat’s early edge, resulting in electoral victory. Nothing on a similar scale was attempted in 2026.
面对这些事实，共和党人常常表示，只想干脆取消提前投票，回到选举日投票，而不是选举月投票。如果共和党想要改变这一点，他们首先需要赢得选举。在没有提前投票的情况下做到这一点，就像带着刀去参加枪战。
When confronted with these facts, Republicans often express a desire to simply end early voting and return to Election Day instead of election month. If Republicans want to change that, they first need to win elections. Doing that without early voting is like bringing a knife to a gunfight.
共和党领导人需要适应这一现实，并向共和党选民传递提前投票是明智之举的信号。要摆脱共和党目前所处的困境，需要多年和多个选举周期。最好从今天开始。安德鲁·福莱特为华盛顿一家非营利机构进行研究分析。
Republican leaders need to adjust to that reality and signal that it’s wise for Republican voters to vote early. It will take many years and electoral cycles to dig out of the hole Republicans are now in. Best to get started today. Andrew Follett conducts research analysis for a Washington nonprofit. area.