刚刚经历惨淡一周的债券交易员将关注一系列美联储官员讲话以及央行最近一次会议纪要，以寻找利率线索，此前市场大幅提高了对长周期加息的预期。
Bond traders fresh off a bruising week will look to a slew of Federal Reserve speeches and the central bank’s most recent meeting minutes for clues on interest rates after the market ramped up expectations for an extended cycle of hikes.
上周，美国两年期国债收益率一度飙升37个基点，10年期基准国债收益率重回5%上方，此前公布的通胀报告热于预期，且多位美联储官员发表鹰派证词，震惊了此前为规避AI风险而涌入国债避险的投资者。
Yields on US two-year yields surged as much as 37 basis points last week and the 10-year benchmark climbed back above 5% after a hotter-than-expected inflation report and hawkish testimony from a number of Fed officials jolted investors who had been flocking to Treasuries as a haven from AI risks.
美联储理事沃勒率先引发抛售，他表示鉴于近期通胀走势，加息50个基点在考虑范围内。虽然随后发言的央行官员没有走那么远，但他们都传递了一个信息，暗示还将有更多加息。
Fed Governor Christopher Waller initiated the selloff by suggesting a half-point rate hike was on the table given the recent trajectory of inflation. While subsequent central bank speakers didn’t go that far, they all delivered a message suggesting more rate increases are in store.
现在，由于下周经济数据寥寥无几，投资者将把注意力集中在更多讲话上，届时将有美联储主席凯文·沃什、纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯和明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利等人发声。此外，周三将发布美联储10月会议纪要，届时也将成为焦点，在该会议上，两位官员不同意维持利率不变的共识，主张加息。
Now, with only a smattering of economic data on tap next week, investors will train their attention on more remarks, this time from central bank Chairman Kevin Warsh, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, among others. Also in focus will be Wednesday’s release of the minutes of the Fed’s October meeting, at which two officials dissented from the consensus to leave rates steady, calling for a hike instead.
摩根大通资产管理投资组合经理普里亚·米斯拉表示，在沃勒关于潜在大幅加息的言论后，即将到来的美联储官员讲话和会议纪要“将对衡量美联储整体反应函数和加息紧迫性很重要”。
After Waller’s comments about a potential jumbo hike, the coming Fedspeak and meeting minutes “will be important to gauge the overall Fed reaction function and the urgency to hike,” said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.
交易员上周末已完全消化下月会议加息25个基点的预期，且明年1月出现类似举措的可能性很大。国债收益率的大幅上涨伴随着市场预期到2027年9月将累计紧缩约90个基点，高于前一周的约50个基点。
Traders ended last week fully pricing a quarter-point rate increase at next month’s meeting, with a solid chance of a similar move in January. The sharp rise in Treasury yields has been accompanied by the market pricing in around 90 basis points of tightening by September 2027, up from roughly 50 basis points in the past week.
米斯拉表示，大多数投资者“认为沃勒属于少数派，因为即使是鹰派官员也并未预期此后会有太多次加息”，但她警告称，如果市场察觉到“美联储落后于曲线的迹象”，那将意味着“未来将出现更多波动的交易日”。话虽如此，股市进一步下跌可能会重燃对债券的买盘。美国股市在对人工智能支出及其可持续性的隐忧持续发酵中面临更大动荡，上周芯片制造商英伟达公司的震荡及其联合创始人黄仁勋的离职更增添了投资者的担忧。
Misra said most investors “think Waller is in a minority as even the hawks are not penciling in too many hikes from here,” but she cautioned that if the market detects “a sense that the Fed is behind the curve,” that would mean “more volatile days ahead.”To be sure, further declines in equities could revive a bid for bonds. US stocks have faced increased turbulence amid simmering worries over AI spending and sustainability, with last week’s shakeup at chipmaker Nvidia Corp. and ouster of its co-founder Jensen Huang adding to investors’ concern.
与此同时，人工智能领域的一个关键里程碑即将到来，即Anthropic PBC预期的首次公开募股。
Meanwhile, a key AI milestone looms with Anthropic PBC’s expected initial public offering.
考虑到股市可能进一步震荡，米斯拉表示，她所在的机构倾向于承担一定的利率风险，“因为如果人工智能交易出现动摇，美国国债是避险资产”。本周的经济数据日程包括最新的零售销售数据，以及多份地区联储制造业和商业活动报告。市场还将消化20年期债券和10年期通胀挂钩债券的发行。经济数据：美联储日程：拍卖日程：
Given the possibility of further tremors in stocks, Misra said her firm favors taking on some interest-rate risk “as Treasuries are a safe haven asset if the AI trade gets wobbly.”This week’s calendar of economic data includes the latest figures on retail sales, as well as a number of regional Fed manufacturing and business activity reports. The market will also absorb sales of 20-year bonds and 10-year inflation-linked debt. Economic data: Fed calendar: Auction calendar: