经济担忧和党派忠诚是塑造艾奥瓦州美国参议员竞选格局的关键因素。
Economic concerns and party loyalty are key factors shaping Iowa’s U.S. Senate matchup.
福克斯新闻（Fox News）针对艾奥瓦州潜在选民进行的的全州民调显示，民主党人乔什·蒂雷克（Josh Turek）以49%对47%微弱领先共和党人阿什利·欣森（Ashley Hinson）两个百分点，这一差距完全在误差范围之内。
A Fox News statewide survey of Iowa likely voters finds Democrat Josh Turek with a two-point edge over Republican Ashley Hinson, 49% to 47%, well within the margin of error.
在已登记选民中，蒂雷克以50%对46%领先4个百分点。这也处于抽样误差范围内，且自6月以来保持不变。以下分析基于潜在选民的投票结果。
Amonged voters, Turek is ahead by 4 points, 50% to 46%. That also falls within the range of sampling error and has been unchanged since June. The analysis below is based on likely voter results.
民主党选民对州议员蒂雷克的支持更为团结（96%），而共和党选民对现任国会女议员欣森的支持率为87%。独立选民以二比一的比例青睐蒂雷克，同时有10%的共和党人支持他。由于自认是共和党人的选民多于民主党人，正是艾奥瓦州的党派结构使得这场竞选异常胶着。
Democrats are more unified behind state representative Turek (96%) than Republicans are of current Congresswoman Hinson (87%). Independents favor Turek by two-to-one, and 10% of Republicans back him. It’s Iowa’s partisan structure that keeps the race tight, as more voters identify as Republicans than Democrats.
福克斯新闻民调：密歇根州选民在埃尔-赛耶德和罗杰斯之间分化 艾奥瓦州选民对参议院控制权的看法存在分歧：49%的人倾向于由民主党控制，48%的人倾向于由共和党控制。由于这些数字与参议院竞选结果几乎吻合，两位候选人的表现都接近其政党支持率的上限。
FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS Iowa voters are split on control of the Senate: 49% prefer Democratic control and 48% favor Republican. With those numbers nearly matching the Senate matchup, both candidates are performing close to their party’s ceiling.
在女性选民中，蒂雷克领先11个百分点；在郊区领先16个百分点；在拥有大学学历的选民中领先17个百分点；在独立选民中则领先32个百分点。
Turek is preferred by 11 points among women, 16 points in the suburbs, 17 points among voters with a college degree, and 32 points among independents.
欣森在男性选民中领先7个百分点；在没有大学学历的选民中领先6个百分点；在农村选民中领先14个百分点；在白人福音派基督徒中则领先41个百分点。
Hinson is up by 7 points among men, 6 points among those without a college degree, 14 points among rural voters, and 41 points among White evangelical Christians.
经济压力对这场竞选产生了影响。在2024年福克斯新闻选民分析中，十分之三的艾奥瓦州人表示他们的家庭财务状况正在落后。如今这一比例已上升至十分之四，他们以38个百分点的优势支持蒂雷克。与此同时，财务状况保持稳定（45%）和取得进展（13%）的选民则更青睐欣森（分别领先14个百分点和53个百分点）。
Economic pressure influences the contest. In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, 3 in 10 Iowans described their families as falling behind financially. That share has risen to 4 in 10 today, and they back Turek by a 38-point margin. Meanwhile, those holding steady (45%) and getting ahead (13%) favor Hinson (by 14 and 53 points respectively).
福克斯新闻民调：选民质疑人工智能的前景是否大于风险 此外，60%的受访者表示生活成本将对其参议院投票决定极为重要。这一比例超过了其他主要议题，如唐纳德·特朗普总统（43%极为重要）、移民（39%极为重要）和人工智能技术（27%极为重要）。
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS QUESTION WHETHER AI'S PROMISE OUTWEIGHS ITS RISKS In addition, 6 in 10 say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote decision. That outpaces other top issues, like President Donald Trump (43% extremely), immigration (39% extremely), and AI technology (27% extremely).
在表示生活成本、特朗普和人工智能技术对其投票极为重要的选民中，图雷克占据优势，而将移民作为优先事项的选民则倾向于欣森。
Turek has the advantage among voters who say the cost of living, Trump, and AI technology are each extremely important to their vote, while voters prioritizing immigration favor Hinson.
特朗普在2024年爱荷华州大选中以近56%的得票率获胜。如今，这一比例（57%）的爱荷华州选民不认可他作为总统的工作表现，而认可者仅为42%。
Trump won Iowa with nearly 56% of the vote in 2024. Today, that’s how many Iowa voters disapprove of his job performance as president (57%), while far fewer, 42%, approve.
总统的支持率只是欣森面临挑战的一部分。虽然42%的选民对她持正面看法，但50%持负面看法，其中近40%为“强烈”负面。相比之下，图雷克的评价呈净正面：48%正面对40%负面（24%为“强烈”负面）。
The president’s ratings are only part of Hinson’s challenge. While 42% view her positively, 50% have an unfavorable view, including nearly 4 in 10 who are "strongly" unfavorable. In contrast, Turek’s ratings are net positive: 48% favorable to 40% unfavorable (24% "strongly" unfavorable).
以9个百分点的差距，担心欣森与特朗普关系过密的选民多于担心图雷克观点过于自由派的选民（52%对43%）。在“极度”担忧的人群中，这一差距扩大至14个百分点：36%认为欣森与特朗普关系过密，而22%认为图雷克过于自由派。
By a 9-point margin, more voters are concerned Hinson is too close to Trump than are worried Turek’s views are too liberal (52% vs. 43%). Among those "extremely" concerned, that gap widens to 14 points: 36% say Hinson is too tied to Trump, while 22% say Turek is too liberal.
图雷克的支持者对其选择更为坚定：88%坚定支持他，而欣森仅为77%。表示可能改变主意的欣森支持者是图雷克的两倍（20%对10%）。
More of Turek’s backers are certain of their choice: 88% are committed to him compared to 77% for Hinson. Twice as many Hinson supporters say they might change their mind (20% vs. 10%).
“近期历史和该州的党派构成表明欣森仍有可能逆转局势，”共和党民调专家达伦·肖表示，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同负责福克斯新闻民调。“但警告信号显而易见：爱荷华州共和党人态度暧昧，独立选民倾向图雷克，甚至她自己的支持者也表示拿不准。”爱荷华州已有18年未选出民主党参议员（上一次是汤姆·哈金参议员连任最后一届），选出民主党州长更是要追溯到20年前。
"Recent history and the state’s partisan makeup suggest Hinson can pull this out," says GOP pollster Daron Shaw, who works on the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "But the warning signs are clear: Iowa Republicans seem ambivalent, independents prefer Turek, and even her supporters say they aren’t sure." Iowa hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in 18 years (when Sen. Tom Harkin won his final term), and it's been 20 years since they elected a Democrat as governor.
在艾奥瓦州州长竞选中，民主党人罗布·桑德在可能投票的选民中以53%对44%领先共和党人扎克·拉恩。自6月以来，这场选情一直保持稳定。
In the Iowa governor’s contest, Democrat Rob Sand outperforms Republican Zach Lahn among likely voters by 53-44%. The race has been steady since June.
桑德的领先不仅来自获得几乎所有民主党人（97%）的支持，还来自14%的共和党人和66%的独立人士（相比之下，拉恩仅获得16%独立人士支持）。此外，11%支持欣森竞选参议员的选民转投党派，支持桑德竞选州长。
Sand’s lead comes not only from getting the support of nearly all Democrats (97%), but also 14% of Republicans and 66% of independents (vs. 16% of independents for Lahn). Plus, 11% of voters backing Hinson for Senate switched parties to support Sand for governor.
这项福克斯新闻民调于2026年9月24日至28日进行，由Beacon Research（民主党）和Shaw & Company Research（共和党）共同主持，访问了从全州选民档案中随机抽取的1，204名艾奥瓦州登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（183人）和手机（733人）与现场访员交谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（288人）。基于登记选民样本的结果抽样误差幅度为±2.5个百分点，而在1，008名可能投票选民子样本中为±3个百分点。
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,204 Iowaed voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (183) and cellphones (733) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (288). Results based on theed voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,008 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也可能影响结果。制定权重目标的来源包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析以及选民档案数据。权重通常应用于年龄、种族、教育和地区变量，以确保受访者的人口结构能够代表登记选民总体。可能投票选民基于一个概率统计模型，该模型依据过往投票记录、对当前选举的兴趣、投票意向、年龄、教育、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。子群体结果仅在样本量至少达到N=100时才会显示。
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of theed voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.