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伊朗最高安全官员警告称将面临严峻经济危机Iran’s Top Security Official Warns of Dire Economic Crisis

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伊朗国家安全顾问莫森·雷扎伊的这一罕见表态,是在美国加强制裁并实施海上封锁数周之后作出的。

The rare admission from Mohsen Rezaei, the security chief, came weeks after the U.S. tightened sanctions and its naval blockade.

雷扎伊警告称,持续恶化的经济状况已使伊朗陷入历史上最为艰难的时期之一。

Iran’s national security adviser has warned that the rapidly deteriorating economy has plunged the country into one of the most difficult periods in its history.

作为伊朗最高安全官员,雷扎伊于周六在一次高级别政府会议上罕见地承认了当前的严峻形势。此次会议旨在探讨在持续七个多月的战争背景下如何稳定经济。

Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s top security official, made the rare admission on Saturday at a high-level government meeting about how to stabilize the economy after more than seven months of war.

自2月份美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争以来,伊朗货币里亚尔汇率大幅下跌。最近几周,随着美国进一步加码制裁并实施海上封锁,里亚尔贬值速度进一步加快。这导致进口成本大幅上升,使得本就严重的生活成本危机愈发严峻。去年12月,这一危机曾引发全国性抗议活动,但被安全部队以武力镇压。

Iran’s currency, the rial, has plummeted since the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in February. The decline has accelerated sharply in recent weeks, since the United States ratcheted up sanctions and enforced a naval blockade. That has made imports more expensive and deepened a longstanding cost of living crisis that sparked nationwide protests last December that the security forces crushed with deadly force.

分析人士指出,美国的海上封锁还基本阻断了伊朗的石油出口渠道,使该国失去了最主要的收入来源,进而引发了燃料危机。

Analysts say the U.S. naval blockade has also largely prevented Iran from exporting oil, depriving the country of its main source of revenue and causing a fuel crisis.

近日,包括护士和教师在内的众多政府及私营部门工作人员纷纷在社交媒体上表示,由于薪资已无法维持生计,他们不得不辞职。伊朗当地媒体报道称,过去几周里,一些退休公务员也举行了抗议活动,称自己未能领到全额养老金。

In recent days, government and private sector employees, including nurses and teachers, have taken to social media to say they were quitting their jobs because their salaries could no longer support them. Iranian local media has reported that retired government employees have held protests in the past few weeks because they said they had not received their full pensions.

据伊朗官方媒体报道,出席周六会议的除雷扎伊外,还有总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬及其他高级部长。

In addition to Mr. Rezaei, the government meeting on Saturday included President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior Iranian ministers, according to state media.

伊朗官方媒体并未直接引用雷扎伊的言论。不过,伊朗通讯社IRNA报道称,雷扎伊“形容当前局势是国家所面临的最艰难时期之一”,并承诺伊朗安全委员会将竭尽全力提供必要支持。

State news outlets in Iran did not provide direct quotations of Mr. Rezaei’s comments. But Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, reported that he “described the circumstances as among the most difficult periods the country has faced” and told the meeting that Iran’s security council would provide whatever support it could.

佩泽希齐扬先生周六在社交媒体发表声明,承认经济状况正在恶化,并表示政府“已采取新的姿态来应对特殊局势”。他没有说明这在实际操作中意味着什么。

Mr. Pezeshkian acknowledged the worsening economic conditions in a statement on social media on Saturday and said that the government “has adopted a new posture to manage the special conditions.”He did not specify what that would mean in practice.

随着德黑兰与华盛顿的谈判陷入僵局,伊朗面临的经济压力不断加剧。双方均拒绝作出让步,并暗示自己比对方更能承受经济上的痛苦。

The economic pressure on Iran has intensified as negotiations between Tehran and Washington have stalled, with both sides refusing to make concessions and signaling that they can outlast the other’s tolerance for economic pain.

最近几周,美国官员一直认为自己在这场经济僵局中占据上风。最新数据显示,中东石油运输量已几乎恢复到战前水平。

In recent weeks, U.S. officials have argued that they are winning the economic standoff. Recent data showed oil shipments from the Middle East have returned almost to prewar levels.

但油价仍高于冲突爆发前,一些分析师警告称,这场危机给全球经济造成的冲击远未消除。海峡航行仍然危险,能源基础设施受损也限制了炼油能力和天然气出口。分析人士称,伊朗领导人希望这些压力能在美国中期选举前对特朗普总统造成不利影响。

But the price of oil remains higher than before the conflict, and some analysts have warned the crisis for the global economy is far from resolved. The strait remains dangerous to navigate and damage to energy infrastructure has hampered refining capacity and natural gas exports. Iran’s leaders hope that the pressure could hurt President Trump ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, according to analysts.

除了封锁之外,美国还禁止了伊朗与世界其他地区之间大多数民用航空往来,给伊朗增加了另一层经济孤立。一些制裁问题专家称,这可能影响包括药品在内的重要物资进口。埃丽卡·所罗门是《泰晤士报》驻伊朗和伊拉克分社社长。

In addition to the blockade, the United States has blocked most civilian air travel between Iran and the rest of the world, adding a new layer of economic isolation that some sanctions experts have said could hurt critical imports, including medicine. Erika Solomon is The Times’s bureau chief for Iran and Iraq.