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为什么胡塞武装如此难以击败Why the Houthis Are So Hard to Defeat

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罗·华莱士经过四年的相对平静,也门胡塞武装与该国国际公认的政府及其支持者沙特阿拉伯的战争又重新开始。沙特领导的支持政府军的联盟宣布开始对胡塞武装进行全面军事行动10月4日在社交媒体上表示,目标是“消灭”该组织。

After four years of relative calm, the war pitting Yemen’s Houthi militia against the country’s internationally recognized government and its backer Saudi Arabia is back on. Announcing the start of a full-scale military campaign against the Houthis, the Saudi-led coalition supporting government forces said on social media on Oct. 4 that the goal is to “eliminate” the group.

这是一个雄心勃勃的目标。胡塞武装曾经被视为一群穿着凉鞋在皮卡车上战斗的乌合之众,但他们已经表现出了持久力和影响力。胡塞武装于2014年占领首都萨那,目前控制着也门大部分人口的土地。多年来,他们一直经受住了沙特支持的军事驱逐行动,以及美国、英国和以色列的轰炸袭击,这些袭击旨在惩罚该组织对红海商业航运和以色列本身的袭击。尽管得到伊朗的支持,胡塞武装越来越多地拥有其他武装自己的手段。

It’s an ambitious aim. Once dismissed as a ragtag band fighting in sandals from pickup trucks, the Houthis have demonstrated staying power and reach. Having taken over the capital Sanaa in 2014, the Houthis now control land containing most of Yemen’s population. They’ve previously withstood years of Saudi-backed military efforts to dislodge them as well as US, UK and Israeli bombing raids meant to punish the group’s attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and on Israel itself. Though supported by Iran, the Houthis increasingly have other means of arming themselves.

胡塞武装的官方名称为“安萨尔·阿拉”或“上帝的支持者”,是来自也门西北部萨达省的一个部落的一部分。他们是什叶派伊斯兰教扎伊迪分支的追随者,该分支约占该国人口的三分之一。

Officially known as Ansar Allah, or Supporters of God, the Houthis are part of a clan that hails from Yemen’s northwestern Saada province. They’re followers of the Zaidi branch of Shiite Islam, which accounts for roughly a third of the country’s population.

胡塞武装于20世纪90年代北也门和南也门统一后崛起,发动了一系列针对政府的叛乱。他们于2014年占领萨那引发了一场至今仍在分裂国家的内战。

The Houthis emerged in the 1990s after North Yemen and South Yemen were unified, waging a series of rebellions against the government. Their seizure of Sanaa in 2014 triggered a civil war that still divides the country.

胡塞武装反西方、反以色列,被美国和欧盟列为恐怖分子。他们是所谓抵抗轴心的一部分,该轴心由伊朗建立,包括黎巴嫩真主党和加沙哈马斯,这两个组织也被美国和其他国家列为恐怖组织。这些团体从伊朗接受培训、技术专业知识和武器。

The Houthis are anti-West and anti-Israel, and are designated terrorists by the US and the European Union. They’re part of the so-called axis of resistance, which was established by Iran and includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both of which are also classified as terrorist organizations by the US and others. These groups receive training, technical expertise and weapons from Iran.

胡塞武装与伊朗密切协调,在很大程度上共享其战略目标,但他们自己做出决定。伊朗是胡塞武装的重要武器来源,但不是唯一的来源。他们可以利用也门境内的部落走私网络,并越来越多地从包括中国在内的更远的地方采购商业可用的零部件和原材料。该组织已扩大努力,组装和制造自己的武器。通过减少对伊朗完整武器运输的依赖,胡塞武装使对手更难扰乱他们的行动。

The Houthis coordinate closely with Iran and largely share its strategic objectives, but they make their own decisions. Iran is an important source of weapons for the Houthis, but not the only one. They can draw upon tribal smuggling networks inside Yemen and are increasingly sourcing commercially available components and raw materials from further afield, including China. The group has expanded efforts to assemble and manufacture its own arms. By reducing their dependence on shipments of complete Iranian weapons, the Houthis have made it harder for adversaries to disrupt their operations.

到2022年,也门战争双方都有理由退出战斗。沙特阿拉伯于2015年介入战争,目标是恢复国际公认的政府权力。但胡塞武装仍然根深蒂固,并使用导弹和无人机回击沙特阿拉伯。对于胡塞武装来说,战斗的中断提供了获得让步的机会,包括更多燃料进口和从萨那机场运营有限商业航班的权利。联合国斡旋的停火协议在很大程度上阻止了跨境袭击。尽管六个月后正式到期,但不安的平静持续了近四年。

By 2022, both sides in the Yemen war had reason to step back from the fighting. Saudi Arabia had intervened in the war in 2015 with the goal of restoring the internationally recognized government to power. But the Houthis remained entrenched and were striking back at Saudi Arabia using missiles and drones. For the Houthis, a break in the fighting offered the opportunity to secure concessions including more fuel imports and the right to operate limited commercial flights from Sanaa’s airport. A United Nations-brokered truce largely put a stop to cross-border attacks. Although it formally expired six months later, the uneasy calm held for almost four years.

然后,今年7月13日,沙特喷气式飞机袭击了萨那机场,阻止一架载有胡塞代表团的伊朗飞机降落。代表团是从伊朗已故最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的葬礼回来的,哈梅内伊在美国和以色列对伊朗战争开始时被杀。沙特阿拉伯长期以来一直指责伊朗利用商用客机作为空中桥梁,将武器和军事专家运送到也门胡塞武装地区。

Then, on July 13 of this year, Saudi jets struck Sanaa’s airport to stop an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation from landing. The delegation was returning from the funeral of Iran’s late supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the beginning of the US and Israeli war on Iran. Saudi Arabia has long accused Iran of using commercial passenger planes as an air bridge to move weapons and military experts into Houthi areas of Yemen.

胡塞武装在沙特阿拉伯南部的阿布哈国际机场发射导弹和无人机作为回应。7月20日,他们宣布对沙特阿拉伯实施所谓的“海上封锁”,警告航运公司,如果他们的船只使用该国的港口,就有遭到袭击的风险。

The Houthis responded by launching missiles and drones at Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia. On July 20, they announced what they called a “naval blockade” of Saudi Arabia, warning shipping companies that their vessels risked being attacked if they used the kingdom’s ports.

民兵随后袭击了沙特城市、军事阵地和石油基础设施,引发沙特的报复性空袭。在也门境内,胡塞武装加强了针对沙特支持的政府的行动。

The militia followed up by attackingSaudi cities, military positions and oil infrastructure,provoking retaliatory Saudi airstrikes. Inside Yemen, the Houthis stepped up their campaign against the Saudi-backed government.

9月,他们向南推进了多年来最大规模的领土进攻,加强了对也门红海海岸和重要石油出口走廊巴卜曼德海峡的控制。推翻这些成果是沙特支持的也门军队发起的运动的重要目标之一。

And in September, in their biggest territorial advance in years, they pushed south, strengthening their control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, an important oil export corridor. Undoing those gains was high among the goals of the campaign launched by the Saudi-backed Yemeni forces.

对于沙特阿拉伯来说,击败胡塞武装将消灭该国的长期敌人。民兵组织的袭击可能会破坏沙特王国事实上的统治者穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储的经济野心,他希望吸引数十亿美元的外国投资,用于从数据中心到电动汽车制造等项目。

For Saudi Arabia, defeating the Houthis would eliminate a longstanding enemy of the kingdom. The militia’s attacks risk undermining the economic ambitions of the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who wants to attract billions of dollars of foreign investment in projects ranging from data centers to electric vehicle manufacturing.

对于其他国家来说,胡塞武装的垮台将消除多年来扰乱红海交通的航运威胁。当胡塞武装于2023年首次开始袭击那里的船只时,他们表示这是为了报复以色列在10月7日哈马斯袭击后在加沙采取的军事行动。该组织最初表示,它只关注与以色列有联系的船只。但没有直接联系的船只也遭到袭击。

For other countries, the Houthis’ downfall would remove a threat to shipping that has disrupted traffic in the Red Sea for years. When the Houthisfirst began to attack vessels there in 2023, they said it was in retaliation for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza that followed the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. The group originally said it was only focused on vessels with links to Israel. But ships without a direct connection were also hit.

经苏伊士运河、红海和曼德布的航线是欧洲和亚洲之间船只最便捷的通道。但为了完全避开红海,许多航运公司现在将他们的船只派往非洲南端--这是一种昂贵的改道方式,延长了数千英里,并可能会增加两周的旅程。

The shipping route via the Suez Canal, Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb is the most convenient passage for ships traveling between Europe and Asia. But to avoid the Red Sea altogether, many shipping firms now send their vessels around the southern tip of Africa instead — an expensive diversion that’s thousands of miles longer and can add two weeks to journeys.

沙特政府已请求西方列强提供更多军事支持以对抗胡塞武装。英国正在提供一架飞机来帮助沙特战斗机在空中加油,而法国表示将派遣军队和雷达系统来保护该国红海石油出口中心延布。美国尚未表示将提供额外支持,但继续向沙特提供情报。

The Saudi government has asked Western powers for more military support to counter the Houthis. The UK is providing an aircraft to help Saudi fighter jets refuel in mid-air, while France said it would send troops and radar systems to protect Yanbu, the kingdom’s oil export hub on the Red Sea. The US has not said it will provide extra support but continues to give intelligence to the Saudis.