圣保罗/巴西利亚，10月8日——巴西紧张的总统选举让一些投资者、企业高管和关注气候的企业担忧，由保守派参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗领导的政府可能不会维持支撑该国新兴绿色经济的政策。
SAO PAULO/BRASILIA, Oct 8 - Brazil's tight presidential election has some investors, executives and climate-focused businesses worried that a government led by conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro may not maintain the policies underpinning the country's emerging green economy.
博尔索纳罗在周末的第一轮投票中以超出预期的表现位居首位，此前他的竞选承诺加强受监管的碳市场，但并未批评其父亲、前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗在其执政期间导致的森林砍伐激增的气候记录。
Bolsonaro topped the first-round vote on the weekend with a stronger-than-expected performance, after a campaign in which he promised to strengthen the regulated carbon market but did not criticize the climate track record of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, under whom deforestation soared.
在10月25日的决选中，他将面对左倾的卢拉总统卢伊斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦，后者一直致力于将巴西定位为气候金融中心，推出吸引私人资本投入绿色项目的计划，并为受监管的碳市场奠定基础。
In the October 25 runoff, he will face left-leaning President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who has sought to position Brazil as a hub for climate finance, launching programs to attract private capital into green projects and laying the groundwork for a regulated carbon market.
业界已敦促博尔索纳罗不要放弃该计划，因为这关系到在卢拉任内已成长为全球气候金融领军者的2.6万亿美元经济的潜在成本。
Industry has pressed Bolsonaro not to abandon that program, given the potential costs to the $2.6-trillion economy that has grown under Lula as a leading player in global climate finance.
“撤回这一议程将是经济上的愚蠢，”国家发展银行（BNDES）社会环境部主任特雷萨·坎佩洛说。过去的言论博尔索纳罗的竞选还承诺通过聚焦医药和化妆品产品来扩大生物经济，但投资者和高管仍对他过去关于气候变化的言论表示担忧。
“It would be economic stupidity to roll back this agenda," said Tereza Campello, socio-environmental director at state development bank BNDES. PAST REMARKS While Bolsonaro's campaign also promised to expand the bioeconomy by focusing on pharmaceutical and cosmetics products, concerns remain among investors and executives over his past remarks on climate change.
在8月接受巴西环球电视台采访时，他将极端天气事件描述为周期性的，并表示他不认为这些事件仅与人类影响直接相关。他最近表示，解决气候问题的最佳方式是投资基础卫生设施。
In an August interview with Brazil's Globo, he described extreme weather events as cyclical and said he did not believe they were directly linked only to human influence. He recently said the best way to address climate concerns was through investments in basic sanitation.
气候倡导组织Observatorio do Clima称，博尔索纳罗的计划基本忽视了减排目标。
Bolsonaro's plan largely ignored emissions-reduction targets, said climate advocacy group Observatorio do Clima.
“诸如打击森林砍伐或加强环境执法的提议与他在参议院的记录截然相反，”该组织说。
"Proposals such as fighting deforestation or bolstering environmental enforcement are starkly at odds with his track record in the Senate," it said.
该竞选团队的一位发言人表示，这位参议员的环境议程将在政府过渡期内进一步完善，但他拒绝就未来的博索纳罗政府是否会维持卢拉的绿色金融倡议发表评论。
A spokesperson for the campaign said the senator's environmental agenda would be further developed during a transition period between governments, declining to comment on whether a possible Bolsonaro administration would maintain Lula's green finance initiatives.
发言人称，博索纳罗将优先考虑以市场为基础的保护激励措施（例如为环境服务付费），并加大打击环境犯罪的力度，以在2029年之前消除非法森林砍伐，这比卢拉设定的目标提前了一年。
Bolsonaro would prioritize market-based conservation incentives, like paying for environmental services, and strengthening efforts to tackle environmental crimes to eliminate illegal deforestation by 2029, a year earlier than Lula's target, the spokesperson said.
经济效益 在雅伊尔·博索纳罗2019年至2022年的执政期间，政府削弱了环境保护力度，巴西亚马逊地区的森林砍伐范围不断扩大。
ECONOMIC BENEFITS During the 2019-2022 administration of Jair Bolsonaro, the government weakened environmental protections and deforestation expanded across Brazil's Amazon.
此后，卢拉政府通过巴西国家经济社会开发银行（BNDES）的贷款和投资，鼓励了碳清除产业的发展。在竞选期间，这位总统承诺扩大气候金融工具（如“生态投资”），该工具自2024年以来已动员了1900亿雷亚尔（约合378.3亿美元）。行业专家表示，这一气候议程带来的经济效益让人难以忽视。
Since then, Lula's administration has encouraged the carbon-removal industry through loans and investments from BNDES. During his campaign, the president pledged to expand climate finance tools like Eco Invest, which has mobilized 190 billion reais ($37.83 billion) since 2024. Industry experts say the economic benefits of this climate agenda are difficult to ignore.
碳清除初创企业Mombak的首席执行官加布里埃尔·席尔瓦表示：“气候议程以及政府将这一产业视为国家战略的观点，并不取决于某个政党。”
"The climate agenda and the government's view of this industry as strategic for the country do not depend on a political party," said Gabriel Silva, chief executive of carbon-removal startup Mombak.
席尔瓦表示，无论谁赢得选举，他都预计政策会具有连续性，这在一定程度上是因为巴西正在发展的受监管碳市场以及BNDES提供的信贷选择。
Regardless of who wins the election, Silva said he expects continuity in part due to Brazil's developing regulated carbon market and credit options offered by BNDES.
巴西碳信用额度由设定了自我减排目标的企业进行交易。根据2024年通过的立法，该国正准备推出一个受监管的碳市场，企业可以在该市场购买信用额度以达到官方的脱碳目标，这也将允许巴西在国际上进行相关交易。
Brazilian carbon credits are traded by businesses with self-imposed emissions goals. Under legislation passed in 2024, the country is preparing to launch a regulated carbon market where companies can buy credits to meet official decarbonization targets, and that will allow Brazil to trade them internationally.
难以逆转 企业对该计划的支持也可能促使博索纳罗将其延续下去。
HARD TO REVERSE Support for the program from businesses could also encourage Bolsonaro to stick with it.
在第一轮投票之前，巴西可持续发展商业理事会（CEBDS）的成员包括石油生产商巴西国家石油公司（Petrobras）和矿业公司淡水河谷（Vale），他们告诉候选人，受监管的碳市场是该国经济的关键议题。
Before the first-round vote, the Brazilian Business Council for Sustainable Development (CEBDS), whose members include oil producer Petrobras and miner Vale, told candidates it viewed the regulated carbon market as a key issue for the country's economy.
“2025年，全球在清洁能源技术上的投资约为2.2万亿美元；这些资本是流动的，”CEBDS企业管理执行董事丹妮拉·米尼亚尼（Daniela Mignani）说，并补充说，面对监管不确定性，投资者可能会转向其他地区。
"In 2025, around $2.2 trillion was invested globally in clean-energy technologies; that capital is mobile," said Daniela Mignani, CEBDS executive director for corporate management, adding that investors could move elsewhere in the face of regulatory uncertainty.
巴西国家经济发展银行（BNDES）的坎佩洛表示，卢拉的气候议程背后的经济理性可能使其难以逆转，因为对包括认证木材在内的生物经济产品的需求日益增长，以及在重新造林地区种植的可可和咖啡。
Campello of BNDES said the economic rationale behind Lula's climate agenda could make it difficult to reverse, given the growing demand for bioeconomy products including certified timber, as well as cocoa and coffee grown in reforested areas.
BNDES的森林项目已为旨在恢复和保护当地森林的项目提供了约150亿雷亚尔的贷款和投资。
The BNDES forest program has provided roughly 15 billion reais in loans and investments for projects aimed at recovering and protecting local forests.