先来谈谈一些基本事实。乌克兰自身也存在腐败问题以及政治运作失灵的情况。但在这场战争中，乌克兰毫无疑问是正义的一方。俄罗斯的入侵毫无缘由、毫无正当性可言，也完全站不住脚。弗拉基米尔·普京是侵略者，而弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基则是在保卫自己的国家。仅此而已。
Let’s get the preliminaries out of the way. Ukraine has corruption problems and political dysfunction of its own. But in this war, Ukraine is unequivocally the good guy. Russia’s invasion was unprovoked, unjustified and indefensible. Vladimir Putin is the aggressor. Volodymyr Zelensky is defending his country. Period.
接下来我们谈谈地缘政治的现实。唐纳德·特朗普试图做的远不止结束乌克兰战争这么简单，他意在重新布局未来几十年的战略格局。只有理解这一目标，才能理解他那些看似相互矛盾的决策。
Now let’s talk about geopolitical reality. Donald Trump is attempting something far more ambitious than ending the war in Ukraine. He is trying to rearrange the strategic chessboard for the next several decades. Understanding that objective is essential to understanding his seemingly contradictory decisions.
美国真正意义上具有长期战略威胁的竞争对手只有一个，那就是中国。俄罗斯固然危险，拥有核武器，也能给周边国家带来巨大破坏。但俄罗斯也是一个正在走向衰落的强国：其经济依赖自然资源，人口结构不断恶化，其野心虽然不可接受，但也主要局限于地区范围内。而中国则完全不同。北京方面试图在全球范围内挑战美国在经济、技术和军事领域的领先地位。
The United States has one truly consequential long-term strategic competitor: China. Russia is dangerous, nuclear-armed and capable of wreaking havoc on its neighbors. But Russia is also a declining power with an economy dependent on natural resources, deteriorating demographics and ambitions that, while unacceptable, are largely regional. China is something else entirely. Beijing seeks to challenge American economic, technological and military leadership globally.
中国拥有强大的工业能力、充足的财政资源以及持之以恒的战略耐心，足以为实现这一目标奋斗数代人之久。中国带来的挑战属于完全不同的层级。
It has the industrial capacity, financial resources and strategic patience to pursue that ambition for generations. China’s challenge is in a different category altogether.
随着2031年维持庞大海军舰队所需的巨额开支即将到来，中国的长期财政状况将面临巨大压力。这正是特朗普所面临的两难处境：目前欧洲尚不具备在没有美国大力支持的情况下遏制俄罗斯的能力。尽管多年来各方不断作出承诺，但仍有大量北约成员国在军事力量、情报、后勤保障以及战略领导力方面高度依赖美国。
CHINA’S LONG-TERM FINANCES ARE ALL WET AS BILL TO MAINTAIN HUGE NAVY COMES DUE IN 2031 Here is Trump’s dilemma: Europe is not yet strong enough to contain Russia without substantial American support. Despite years of promises, too many NATO allies remain dependent on American military capabilities, intelligence, logistics and leadership.
在欧洲能够基本独立应对俄罗斯之前，美国必须持续投入大量资源来保障欧洲安全。而每多一分资源被用于应对俄罗斯——无论是武器系统、资金还是战略层面的投入——就意味着少一分资源可用于威慑中国或应对全球其他威胁。
Until Europe can handle Russia largely on its own, the United States must continue devoting enormous resources to European security. Every additional weapons system, dollar and hour of strategic attention consumed by Moscow is a resource unavailable for deterring Beijing or addressing other threats around the world.
特朗普正试图改变这一局面。他的目标显然是创造条件，让俄罗斯最终能成为一个经济上更活跃、行为更正常的国家，而非一个需要美国时刻高度警惕的永久对手。不妨将此举视为一种战略层面的权衡取舍。从长远来看，我们希望看到一个在经济领域深度融入国际体系、有值得失去的利益可图的俄罗斯；不过它仍需时不时受到有力震慑，以提醒普京及其继任者切勿插手欧洲事务。这样的结果显然比让俄罗斯长期处于孤立状态、不断军事化并愈发倒向中国要好得多。
Trump is trying to change that equation. His apparent objective is to create conditions under which Russia can eventually become a more normal, economically engaged country rather than a permanent adversary requiring America’s undivided attention. Think of it as strategic triage. In the long run, we want a fully economically engaged Russia that has something meaningful to lose, but still needs a good kick in the ass from time to time to remind Putin and his successors to stay the hell out of Europe. That is a far better outcome than a permanently isolated, militarized Russia driven ever deeper into China’s embrace.
随着特朗普施压暴露出西欧在国防领域的短板，北约东部成员国正加紧重整军备。但这绝不意味着要信任普京——而是要理解他的动机。普京想要两样东西：金钱与领土。他既渴望从国际交往中获取经济利益，又想维持帝国的版图优势。特朗普则处于独特的有利位置：他既能为俄罗斯提供经济上的好处，又能让其扩张领土的代价变得高得难以承受。这正是特朗普试图实现的微妙平衡。
NATO'S EASTERN FLANK RACES TO REARM AS TRUMP PRESSURE EXPOSES WESTERN EUROPE'S DEFENSE GAP That doesn’t mean trusting Putin. It means understanding his incentives. Putin wants two things: money and real estate. He wants the economic benefits of international engagement and the territorial advantages of an empire. Trump is uniquely positioned to offer the former while making the latter prohibitively expensive. That is the needle Trump is trying to thread.
不过，在达成这一目标的过程中，特朗普还需兼顾诸多相互冲突的全球利益：控制能源价格、持续对伊朗施压、遏制中国、支持以色列、安抚盟友并保护美国经济。欧洲在军事上长期依赖美国，使得上述种种考量愈发复杂。在欧洲真正具备独立承担自身防务责任的能力之前，无论美国多么希望将资源投向其他领域，都难以彻底摆脱与俄罗斯的纠葛。
But he is threading it while balancing competing global equities: keeping energy prices manageable, maintaining pressure on Iran, deterring China, supporting Israel, reassuring allies and protecting the American economy. Europe’s continued military dependence makes every calculation harder. And until Europe is genuinely capable of assuming primary responsibility for its own defense, America cannot simply disengage from Russia, however much we might wish to concentrate our resources elsewhere.
这让我们想到了泽连斯基。我对他的勇气和决心抱有极大的尊重。当乌克兰打击俄罗斯炼油厂时，其军事逻辑显而易见。石油收入为普京的战争机器提供资金。在战争法框架内进行的破坏行动是一个合法的战略目标。泽连斯基在俄罗斯最脆弱的地方发动打击是正确的。但正确并不总是足够。对乌克兰军事规划者而言合情合理的攻击可能使特朗普的更大规模谈判复杂化，扰乱能源市场，并在国内制造政治问题。
Which brings us to Zelensky. I have enormous respect for his courage and determination. And when Ukraine strikes Russian oil refineries, the military logic is obvious. Petroleum revenues finance Putin’s war machine. Disrupting them is a legitimate strategic objective when conducted within the laws of war. Zelensky is right to hit Russia where it hurts. But being right is not always enough. An attack that makes perfect sense to Ukrainian military planners may complicate Trump’s larger negotiations, disrupt energy markets and create political problems at home.
泽连斯基的首要责任是乌克兰的生存。特朗普的首要责任是美国的利益。这些利益高度重叠，但并不完全相同。泽连斯基必须明白：特朗普不仅仅是乌克兰武器、情报和资金的主要供应商。他是在管理一套更为广泛的全球义务的战略伙伴。泽连斯基需要停止主要以购物清单的方式接触华盛顿，而是开始提出一个不同的问题：总统先生，在保护我们主权的同时，乌克兰能为您实现更广泛的目标做些什么？
Zelensky’s first responsibility is Ukraine’s survival. Trump’s first responsibility is America’s interests. Those interests overlap enormously, but they are not identical. Here is what Zelensky must understand: Trump is not simply Ukraine’s principal supplier of weapons, intelligence and money. He is a strategic partner managing a far larger set of global obligations. Zelensky needs to stop approaching Washington principally with a shopping list and start asking a different question: Mr. President, what can Ukraine do to help you accomplish your broader objectives while protecting our sovereignty?
特朗普在因俄罗斯柴油交易发生冲突后呼吁乌克兰更换泽连斯基：“换一个总统”这不是投降。这是精明的外交。这意味着在重大军事和经济行动成为意外之前进行协调。这意味着理解美国的能源关切和国内政治压力。这意味着提供特朗普展示进展的实际途径，而不仅仅是索取更多援助。这也意味着认识到特朗普维持美国支持的能力部分取决于他能否说服美国人他的政策正在发挥作用。
TRUMP CALLS FOR UKRAINE TO REPLACE ZELENSKYY AFTER CLASH OVER RUSSIA DIESEL DEAL: 'GET A NEW PRESIDENT' That is not capitulation. It is sophisticated diplomacy. It means coordinating major military and economic initiatives before they become surprises. It means understanding American energy concerns and domestic political pressures. It means offering Trump practical ways to demonstrate progress rather than simply demanding more assistance. And it means recognizing that Trump’s ability to sustain American support depends partly on convincing Americans that his policies are working.
还有一种现实是外交官们常常宁愿不去讨论的：唐纳德·特朗普以非同寻常的程度通过个人关系来进行外交政策。我曾为他工作。我知道。传统的外交手册强调准备充分的会议、正式沟通和官僚协调。特朗普则极度重视个人接触以及某人是否理解他试图实现的目标。已故外交官乔治·博尔抓住了一个永恒的真理：“Nothing propinks like propinquity.” 通俗地说，接近程度很重要。
There is another reality diplomats often prefer not to discuss: Donald Trump conducts foreign policy through personal relationships to an extraordinary degree. I worked for him. I know. The conventional diplomatic playbook emphasizes prepared meetings, formal communications and bureaucratic coordination. Trump places enormous weight on personal access and whether someone understands what he is trying to achieve. The late diplomat George Ball captured an enduring truth: "Nothing propinks like propinquity." In plain English, proximity matters.
特朗普谈判代表威特科夫和库什纳在莫斯科会见普京，随着美国推动结束俄乌战争。泽连斯基需要不断与特朗普交谈。不是每月一次。也不仅在他需要另一批武器时才谈。几乎每天。有时讨论战场。有时分享情报。有时提出一个想法。有时只是讲个笑话或分享一些八卦。当乌克兰有成千上万的人死亡时，这听起来可能微不足道，但事实并非如此。个人熟悉度建立信任。信任创造接触机会。接触机会创造影响力。
TRUMP NEGOTIATORS WITKOFF, KUSHNER MEET WITH PUTIN IN MOSCOW AS US PUSHES FOR END TO RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR Zelensky needs to be talking to Trump constantly. Not once a month. Not only when he needs another weapons package. Almost every day. Sometimes to discuss the battlefield. Sometimes to share intelligence. Sometimes to float an idea. Sometimes just to tell him a joke or share some gossip. That may sound trivial when thousands are dying in Ukraine, but it isn’t. Personal familiarity creates trust. Trust creates access. Access creates influence.
即使是史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳，尽管他们几乎每小时都能见到特朗普，也偶尔会被一个决定所惊讶。这就是他异常流动、个性化决策过程的本质。想象一下，一个外国领导人仅依赖传统外交渠道所处的劣势。泽连斯基无法承受这种劣势。
Even Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with their almost hourly access to Trump, can occasionally be surprised by a decision. That is the nature of his unusually fluid, personalized decision-making process. Imagine the disadvantage of a foreign leader relying exclusively on traditional diplomatic channels. Zelensky cannot afford that disadvantage.
还有美国政治中令人不安的一面。特朗普需要共和党在11月保持对参议院的控制。泽连斯基需要乌克兰度过即将到来的冬天。对一个中立的观察者来说，这两个目标几乎不等同。但对每位领导人而言，它们却至关重要。泽连斯基应该干预美国大选吗？绝对不应该。他应该理解特朗普的政治压力，并帮助创造使持续的美国支持更容易被捍卫的条件吗？绝对应该。
There is also the uncomfortable matter of American politics. Trump needs Republicans to retain control of the Senate in November. Zelensky needs Ukraine to survive the coming winter. To a neutral observer, those objectives are hardly equivalent. To each leader, however, they are critical. Should Zelensky intervene in an American election? Absolutely not. Should he understand Trump’s political pressures and help create conditions under which continued American support becomes easier to defend? Absolutely.
帮助一个政党和帮助美国总统证明其外交政策正在取得成果之间有天壤之别。泽连斯基应该每天寻找机会做后者。理解特朗普的政治限制并不等同于放弃乌克兰的利益。这是认识到，确保美国支持的最有效方式是把乌克兰的成功作为特朗普成功的一部分。
There is a world of difference between helping a political party and helping an American president demonstrate that his foreign policy is producing results. Zelensky should be looking for opportunities to do the latter every day. Understanding Trump’s political constraints is not the same as surrendering Ukraine’s interests. It is recognizing that the most effective way to secure American support is to make Ukraine’s success part of Trump’s success.
但这种交易必须双向进行。在普京继续轰炸乌克兰的发电厂、城市和民用基础设施的情况下，不能指望泽连斯基克制对俄能源基础设施的攻击。乌克兰已经表现出愿意考虑互惠克制的意愿。这种意愿必须得到俄罗斯的行动回应，而不仅仅是另一次美国对乌克兰耐心的请求。如果特朗普希望泽连斯基配合他的更广泛战略，特朗普必须利用美国巨大的经济杠杆，让普京也配合。
But this bargain must run both ways. Zelensky cannot be expected to restrain attacks on Russian energy infrastructure while Putin continues pounding Ukraine’s power plants, cities and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine has already demonstrated a willingness to consider reciprocal restraint. That willingness must be met by Russian action, not simply another American request for Ukrainian patience. If Trump wants Zelensky to accommodate his broader strategy, Trump must use America’s enormous economic leverage to make Putin accommodate it as well.
这意味着不对侵略给予单边奖励，不能用临时手势换取永久制裁解除，也不能达成让乌克兰无防御能力而俄罗斯重新武装的和解。临时柴油安排或制裁缓和并不等于正常化，而是一种战术。真正的正常化需要可验证的俄罗斯行为以及对再次侵略的有意义后果。普京希望进行经济互动。特朗普掌握着使这种互动成为可能的大部分因素。这种杠杆应被用来争取持久的让步，而不是换取另一个短暂的承诺。
That means no unilateral rewards for aggression, no permanent sanctions relief in exchange for temporary gestures and no settlement that leaves Ukraine defenseless while Russia rearms. A temporary diesel arrangement or sanctions reprieve is not normalization. It is a tactic. Real normalization requires verifiable Russian behavior and meaningful consequences for renewed aggression. Putin wants economic engagement. Trump controls much of what makes that engagement possible. That leverage should be used to secure lasting concessions, not exchanged for another fleeting promise.
与此同时，欧洲必须加速其军事转型。美国无法无限期地继续作为欧洲的主要保险政策，同时为中国所构成的更大战略挑战做准备。最终的奖赏不是与普京握手或另一则白宫公告。而是一个能够自卫的欧洲，一个有强大动机留在边界内的俄罗斯，以及一个能够将战略重心集中在最大长期危险所在的美国。
Meanwhile, Europe must accelerate its military transformation. The United States cannot indefinitely remain Europe’s principal insurance policy while simultaneously preparing for the far greater strategic challenge posed by China. The ultimate prize is not a handshake with Putin or another White House announcement. It is a Europe capable of defending itself, a Russia with powerful incentives to stay within its borders and an America free to concentrate its strategic weight where the greatest long-term danger lies.
在欧洲达到这一点之前，特朗普必须平衡泽连斯基无法忽视的竞争性军事、经济和政治需求。特朗普还必须认识到，乌克兰的生存对于使其更大战略具有可信度至关重要。泽连斯基需要特朗普的杠杆、武器和经济实力。特朗普需要泽连斯基的合作，以达成可持续的解决方案，而非戏剧化的解决方案。普京必须明白，他无法无限期地在他们之间挑拨离间。
Until Europe reaches that point, Trump must balance competing military, economic and political demands that Zelensky cannot afford to ignore. And Trump must recognize that Ukraine’s survival is essential to making his larger strategy credible. Zelensky needs Trump’s leverage, weapons and economic power. Trump needs Zelensky’s cooperation to produce a sustainable settlement rather than a theatrical one. Putin must understand he cannot play them against each other indefinitely.
对泽连斯基的信息很简单：帮助特朗普在地缘政治使命中取得成功，并坚持乌克兰的生存是该成功的一部分。对特朗普的信息同样简单：给泽连斯基一个理由，让他相信帮助你不会让他失去国家。两人都不需要放弃各自的利益。双方都需要理解对方的立场。
The message to Zelensky is simple: Help Trump succeed in his larger geopolitical mission, and insist that Ukraine’s survival be part of that success. The message to Trump is equally simple: Give Zelensky a reason to trust that helping you will not cost him his country. Neither man needs to abandon his interests. Both need to understand the other’s.
这就是交易型外交在运作良好时的运作方式。也是你如何穿针引线的方式。
That is how transactional diplomacy works when it works well. And that is how you thread the needle.