在10月10日发布的一段竞选视频中，由三个以阿拉伯裔以色列人为主的政党组成的联盟——“联合名单”的领导人优素福·贾巴林宣布了一项引人注目的决定：该联盟将“动用一切手段”来推翻现政府，并充当反对派的“安全网”。在以色列历史上的大部分时期，这些政党都处于边缘地位，作为反对派存在。但今年，在以色列的选举史上首次出现这样的情况：所有代表巴勒斯坦裔以色列公民的政党都誓言要努力改变现政府。
In A campaign video released on October 10th Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, a slate of candidates from three predominantly Arab-Israeli parties, made a striking announcement. The bloc would “use all the tools” at its disposal to replace the government and “serve as a safety net” for the opposition. For most of Israel’s history, they have stayed on the sidelines, in opposition. But this year, for the first time in an Israeli election, all the parties representing Israel’s Palestinian citizens have vowed to try to change the government.
“这对犹太人和阿拉伯人而言都是一场关乎生死的选举，”“联合名单”成员之一、阿拉伯变革运动党领袖艾哈迈德·提比说道，“这个法西斯政府所推行的种族主义与煽动行为已经到了不可容忍的地步。我们将竭尽全力把他们赶下台。”照理说，这意味着本雅明·内塔尼亚胡及其盟友将难逃败局。《经济学人》的民调数据显示，他的对手们——无论犹太人或阿拉伯人——在拥有120个席位的以色列议会中合计可获得约64个席位。然而，这些阿拉伯政党依然不受欢迎。
“This is an existential election for Jews and Arabs,” says Ahmed Tibi, head of the Arab Movement for Change, one of the parties in the Joint List. “The levels of racism and incitement from this fascist government are simply too great. We’ll do almost anything to kick them out.”This should mean Binyamin Netanyahu and his allies can be beaten. The Economist’s poll tracker has his opponents, Jewish and Arab, together averaging 64 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, Israel’s parliament. And yet the Arab parties remain unwelcome.
几十年来，占选民总数约20%的阿拉伯裔选民所支持的政党始终游离于选举后的联合组阁谈判之外。不过自20世纪80年代起，它们开始支持总理候选人；1992年，这些政党还与中左翼政党结成事实上的联盟，以阻止右翼的利库德集团组建政府。2021年，规模较小的保守伊斯兰政党“拉阿姆”从“联合名单”中脱离，声称自己希望采取更激进的行动，并表示只要能在政府中为阿拉伯选民争取到一定权益，便愿意加入任何政府。
For decades the parties representing Arab voters, who make up around 20% of the electorate, stayed outside the post-election coalition wrangling. But since the 1980s they have endorsed candidates for prime minister and in 1992, they formed a de facto bloc with centre-left parties to prevent the right-wing Likud party from forming a coalition. In 2021 Ra’am, a small conservative-Islamist party broke away from the Joint List, insisting it wanted to go further, and that it would join any government in which it could have some influence on behalf of Arab voters.
那年的选举中，Ra’am 单独突破了 3.25% 的选举门槛，赢得了议会席位。Ra’am 的领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯曾与内塔尼亚胡就加入其政府进行谈判。但内塔尼亚胡的极右翼盟友破坏了这一计划。然而几周后，Ra’am 成为首个加入联合政府的独立阿拉伯政党，当时它投赞成票支持由纳夫塔利·贝内特组建的短命政府。次年选举中，Ra’am 表现更佳。
In that year’s election Ra’am passed the electoral threshold of 3.25% of the vote on its own, winning seats in the Knesset. Ra’am’s leader, Mansour Abbas, held talks with Mr Netanyahu about joining his government. Mr Netanyahu’s far-right allies scuppered that plan. But weeks later Ra’am became the first independent Arab party to join a coalition when it voted in favour of a short-lived government formed by Naftali Bennett. In the next year’s poll, Ra’am did even better.
2021 年因阿巴斯愿意考虑加入联合政府而与 Ra’am 决裂的联合名单如今正追随其脚步。Statnet 研究所负责人尤瑟夫·马克拉德赫表示，在他的民调中，“绝大多数阿拉伯选民认为更换政府和打击我们社区的犯罪浪潮是首要问题，甚至高于加沙战争和解决以巴冲突。”在现任政府执政的四年里，阿拉伯社区的与犯罪相关的谋杀案件数量翻了一番。许多人将责任归咎于极端右翼国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔，指责他故意将警务资源从他们的城镇抽走。
The Joint List, which in 2021 broke with Ra’am because of Mr Abbas’ willingness to consider joining a coalition, is now following its lead. Yousef Makladeh, who runs the Statnet Research Institute, says that in his polls “the overwhelming majority of Arab voters put replacing the government and fighting the crime wave in our communities above all other issues, including the war in Gaza and solving the Israel-Palestinian conflict.”Crime-related murders in Arab communities have doubled during the four years of the current government. Many among them blame the far-right national-security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, accusing him of intentionally diverting policing resources away from their towns.
拉阿姆党在其名单中加入了前警察指挥官、知名犹太政治家约阿夫·塞加洛维奇。他们希望他能提升该党在打击犯罪方面的资历，同时增加对非阿拉伯选民的吸引力。联合名单认为这已经走得太远了。“与拉阿姆不同，我们有条件，比如与巴勒斯坦人的未来外交进程，”一位联合名单的竞选人员说。但他承认，“一个模糊的承诺就足够了。”
Ra’am has put a prominent Jewish politician, Yoav Segalovich, a former police commander, on its list. They hope he will boost their crime-fighting credentials as well as increase their appeal to non-Arab voters. The Joint List reckons this is going too far. “Unlike Ra’am, we have conditions, such as a future diplomatic process with the Palestinians,” says one Joint List campaigner. But, he concedes, “a vague commitment will be enough.”
以色列的巴勒斯坦人中，有77%表示阿拉伯党派应加入该国政府，这一数据来自特拉维夫大学莫舍·戴安中心。然而，在四个主要反对党中，只有倾向左翼的民主党公开支持与他们结盟。以色列贝特努党（以色列我们的家园），一个民族主义政党，坚决反对。加迪·艾森科特是内塔尼亚胡的主要挑战者，贝内特是前总理，他们分别领导两个主要的中右翼政党，态度模糊。
Among Israel’s Palestinians 77% say an Arab party should join the country’s government, according to the Moshe Dayan Centre at Tel Aviv University. And yet among the four main opposition parties only the left-leaning Democrats openly favour an alliance with them. Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home), a nationalist party, is firmly opposed. Gadi Eisenkot, Mr Netanyahu’s main challenger, and Mr Bennett, a former prime minister, who lead the two big centre-right parties, are evasive.
内塔尼亚胡的竞选团队指责他们计划与以色列的阿拉伯人组建政府。他们的模糊态度反映了他们担心此类指控会在选举中造成损害。自10月7日和加沙战争以来，以色列犹太人对巴勒斯坦人的态度已经强硬。根据一项民意调查，多数以色列人支持禁止阿拉伯党派甚至参选。以色列议会选举委员会曾试图取消他们的参选资格（但被最高法院阻止）。
Mr Netanyahu’s campaign has accused them of planning to form a government with Israel’s Arabs. Their equivocation reflects their fear that such accusations will be electorally damaging. Since October 7th and the war in Gaza, attitudes among Jewish Israelis towards Palestinians have hardened. According to one poll, a majority of Israelis support barring the Arab parties from even running. The Knesset’s electoral commission tried to disqualify them (the Supreme Court blocked the efforts).
即使他们不正式加入联合政府，阿拉伯党派仍可能通过信任和供应协议，支持由艾森科特领导的少数派政府。“我们可以在不加入政府的情况下共同做很多事情，”提比说，尽管他坚称到目前为止尚未与艾森科特或其党进行任何谈判。“选举后会有时间。为什么要给内塔尼亚胡提供弹药？”■ 订阅《中东快报》，这是一份每周通讯，让您了解世界上一个引人入胜、复杂且重要的地区。
Even if they do not formally join a coalition, the Arab parties could still support a minority government led by Mr Eisenkot, in a confidence-and-supply deal. “There are a lot of things we could do together without joining the government,” says Mr Tibi, though he insists there have been no talks so far with Mr Eisenkot or his party. “There will be time after the election. Why give Netanyahu ammunition?” ■ Sign up to the Middle East Dispatch, a weekly newsletter that keeps you in the loop on a fascinating, complex and consequential part of the world.