对毒贩适用的道理同样适用于那些沉迷于政治的人和评论家——千万别被自己制造的“兴奋剂”冲昏头脑。我们总愿意相信自己想听的话，确认偏误确实存在，它就在那里，等着把人卷进去、搞得迷失方向。正因如此，我始终努力保持绝对的客观，力求以事实为依据。我生性乐观，或者说，我总是试图寻找一丝转机、一条出路，好能反击并掌握主动权，而且我始终坚信这样的机会是存在的。
What goes for drug dealers also goes for political addicts and pundits — don’t get high on your own supply. We want to believe what we want to hear. Confirmation bias is a real thing. It’s out there, waiting to suck you in and turn you out. That’s why I try to be rigorously objective. I try to look at the facts. I’m by nature an optimist, or rather, I’m always looking for an edge, a way, a means to counterattack and seize the initiative, and I always assume it’s there.
不过，正如巴顿也有其天真的一面一样，有时候即便你再努力，也难免会陷入绝境，永远成不了柯克船长。但凭我的直觉判断：民主党如今已到了巅峰期。
But of course, Patton's flipside is Pollyanna. Sometimes you’re trying to save the Kobayashi Maru whether you’ll like it or not, and you’re never going to be Captain Kirk. But let me tell you, here’s what my gut is telling me — the Democrats have peaked.
就在几周前，形势看上去还极其严峻。很多人断言我们即将遭遇一场“蓝色海啸”。然而最近几周，他们的说法又变了，现在说是“红色暗流”。我也认同民主党这次的表现或许不错，他们极有可能赢得众议院，尽管优势未必明显。不过我认为他们很难拿下参议院。此前我们听到的预测是：我们不仅会失去北卡罗来纳州、密歇根州和乔治亚州，连爱荷华州、阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州这些传统的共和党大本营也会失守。
Just a couple of weeks ago, it looked pretty dire. A lot of people told us we were about to be swamped by a blue tsunami. Well, in the last couple of weeks, they modified that take. It’s now a red undertow. And I agree that the Democrats will probably do OK. I think they’re very likely to take the House, though not necessarily by very much. But I don’t think they’re taking the Senate. We were being told that we weren’t just going to lose North Carolina, Michigan, and Georgia. No, we were going to lose red stalwarts like Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio.
情况甚至会更糟——堪萨斯州、内布拉斯加州甚至德克萨斯州这些我们本以为绝对不会丢的州也会落入民主党手中。而且他们不仅会赢下德克萨斯，还会靠一个令人毛骨悚然的共产主义小矮子来实现，那家伙整天胡言乱语，说什么自己疼爱跨性别孩子，还说上帝创造了68种性别。
And it was going to be worse. We were going to lose the states we could never lose: Kansas, Nebraska, and even Texas. And not only were they going to win Texas, but they were also going to do it with a creepy communist halfling who babbles about loving trans kids and how God has 68 genders.
共和党眼看就要被彻底摧毁，MAGA运动也将遭到唾弃，社会主义者则大行其道。全世界那些肥胖、满身穿孔、染着五颜六色头发、性别认知混乱的无业游民们啊，团结起来吧！你们除了学生贷款债务外，没什么可失去的了。
The Republican Party was going to get destroyed. MAGA was going to get repudiated. The socialists were on the rise. Fat, pierced, multicolored-haired, gender-confused non-workers of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but your student loan debt.
一切都取决于一件事：我们。取决于我们是否袖手旁观，取决于我们是否漠不关心。取决于我们是否因为汽油价格每加仑上涨了一美元就怒不可遏，以至于愿意放弃边境管控、减税政策、强大的军队、废除多元化平等倡议及各类监管措施，以及特朗普第二任期所取得的所有其他卓越成果。不过，这种情况并未发生，或许本来就不可能发生。
It all depended on one thing: us. It depended on us not showing up. It depended on us not caring. It depended on us being so mad at Donald Trump over one buck a gallon more expensive gas that we were going to throw away closed borders, tax cuts, a revived military, the end of DEI, deregulation, and all the other great things that Trump II has accomplished. But that hasn’t quite happened. It was probably never going to happen.
诚然，社会上存在一些不满情绪，但普通民众都明白生活就是需要做出选择。你可以选择唐纳德·特朗普——他虽然只实现了我们期望中约80%的目标——也可以选择那些与伊斯兰极端主义势力沆瀣一气的共产主义者：他们企图改变孩子们的性别认同、收缴民众的枪支，彻底毁掉这个国家。
Sure, there’s some dissatisfaction out there, but normal people realize that life is about choices. You can choose Donald Trump, who has only done about 80 percent of the things we want, and a bunch of communist fellow travelers of the Islamist death cult who want to trans your kids, take your guns, and generally wreck this country once and for all.
共和党人开始大力宣传，着重强调这些分歧，让民众清楚自己面临的选择，这一策略奏效了。当然，他们为此投入了大量资金，这也是必要的。即便在形势最好的时候，要在中期选举中调动民众积极性也绝非易事。不过这次，我们手里有一张王牌：民主党提名人选。在密歇根州，他们推举了一位一心想成为“加沙地区参议员”的人；在俄亥俄州，他们选了一位50年来从未在私营部门工作过的老面孔，此人行事风格简直就是年迈痴呆的乔·拜登的翻版。而在缅因州，民主党干脆用一位与纳粹有染的人取代了原本的候选人。
The Republicans started spending, highlighting those distinctions, telling people what their choice was, and it worked. Sure, they spent a lot of money doing it. They had to. Even in the best of times, it’s hard to rouse people at midterms. But this time we had an ace in our pocket: the Democrats’ nominees. In Michigan, you have a guy who wants to be the senator from Gaza. In Ohio, you have a 50-year retread who’s never had a job in the private sector; he’s channeling Joe Biden in his oncoming senility. And in Maine, the Democrats decided to replace the dude with a Nazi tattoo with the dude who was doing his cousin.
天哪。不过这是个值得庆幸的“天哪”。之所以庆幸，是因为在那些推举了相对正常候选人的地区，民主党表现尚可。虽说未必足以扭转某些地区的保守倾向，但比起以往在类似地区取得的成绩来说，已经算不错了。
Yikes. But it’s a good yikes. It’s a good yikes because where they have relatively normal candidates, they’re doing OK. Not necessarily enough to overcome the inherent redness of some of the places they are running, but better than would usually be expected in places with inherent redness where they are running.
特朗普也在采取各种举措来助力选情。他四处出席竞选活动，成功鼓舞了支持者的士气。他下令处决那个背叛国家的恋童癖者，这让我们重新记起了当初投票给他的理由。此外，他还努力促使俄罗斯释放柴油储备以降低油价——这一举措让那些民主党人陷入进退两难的境地：他们一方面指责美国民众每加仑汽油要多付一美元用于对抗“生存之敌”伊朗是不可接受的行为；另一方面却又主张应该多付一美元来支持某个外国与其邻国之间的战争。这种言辞上的矛盾，再加上越来越多的利好经济消息，都将有助于特朗普的选情。
Trump’s also doing things to help. He’s out there making campaign appearances all over the place, and that’s rousing the troops. His decision to shoot that traitorous goat molester has reminded us of why we voted for him. And he has made a move to get Russia to release diesel stocks to lower the price, forcing Democrats who argued that it’s an outrage that we have to pay an extra dollar a gallon to support a war against our existential enemy, Iran, but that we should pay an extra buck a gallon to support some foreign country in its war with its neighbor for some reason. Tying them up in those kinds of rhetorical knots, as well as the growing chorus of good economic news, will help.
目前的民调数据虽有所接近，但真正值得关注的是：民调机构以及那些痴迷于民调结果的人不得不承认一个尴尬的事实——他们根本无法让保守派选民愿意参与民调。民主党选民则乐于公开表达对共产主义及各种离经叛道观念的拥护。而共和党人则牢记上一次有人公开表达自己的政治主张后，竟被左派分子枪杀，当时不少民主党人还面露笑意。
The polls have tightened, but the real story with the polls is that the pollsters and those who obsess over them are admitting the uncomfortable fact that they can’t get a conservative to answer a poll to save their life. Democrat voters are eager to stand up and shout their love of communism and perversion. Republicans remember the last time somebody got up and talked about what he believed, and how a leftist shot him and a bunch of Democrats smiled.
我们不会在电话里向陌生人倾诉自己的政治观点。目前共识是：民调对保守派选民数量的统计存在偏差，属于低估，真正的问题只是低估了多少而已。民调机构根本无法预测保守派选民的投票意向。保守派们只会把想法藏在心里，等到投票时再表达出来。
We’re not talking to some stranger on the phone about our politics. The consensus is that the conservative count is wrong; it’s an undercount, and the real question is by how much. There’s no way for them to know what conservatives will do. Conservatives will keep their thoughts to themselves and express themselves at the ballot box.
一些地方已经开始投票，结果非常有趣：在弗吉尼亚州，共和党的处境极其糟糕——那里的北部白人选民迫不及待地想要投票反对那个被称为“坏橙子男人”（指特朗普）的政党。但在其他地方，选民对共和党的支持度似乎相当高。投票的选民大多是老年人；那些支持社会主义的年轻人目前还没有出现投票的迹象。实际上，即使共和党人有所抱怨，他们最终大多还是会重新支持自己的政党。
And express themselves they are — some places are already voting, and the results are interesting. In Virginia, they’re terrible for Republicans — the northern Virginia parasite class is positively turgid at the opportunity to vote against the party of the Bad Orange Man. But so far, in other places, the electorate looks very favorable to Republicans. It’s a lot of older people; the young people you hear about who love socialism aren’t showing up, at least not yet. The only people who count are the ones who actually vote.
虽然可能会有一些抗议性投票行为（比如选择弃权），但这些行为本质上只是表示“不参与投票”。很难想象会有真正的共和党人（而不是那些极端保守的“Never Trump”派成员）会投票给那些行为古怪、立场偏左的民主党人。
And it was always inevitable that Republicans, even if they were grumbling, were largely going to come back into the fold. There may be some protest votes, but those will take the form of not voting at all. It’s hard to see an actual Republican — not one of those Never Trump Fredocons — who would vote for one of these kooky, commie Democrats.
此外，民主党在一些关键选民群体中也遇到了问题。以黑人为例：贾斯敏·克罗克特（Jasmine Crockett）至今仍未公开支持詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）；不过为她辩护的话，也许她根本找不到塔拉里科这个人。她选择了一个瘦小的白人候选人而非黑人候选人，这实际上是在向德克萨斯州的黑人民主党选民表明“他们的意见无关紧要”——这与民主党长期以来认为“黑人总是投票给民主党人、因此可以被视为理所当然”的立场如出一辙。
Plus, the Democrats have problems with some of their key constituencies. Take blacks. Jasmine Crockett still hasn’t endorsed James Talarico, but in her defense, maybe she can’t find him. Choosing the skinny, little, white guy over a black candidate basically told black Texan Democrats that they don’t matter, which is consistent with the Democrats’ view that blacks don’t matter since blacks always vote for Democrats and can be taken for granted.
密歇根州的情况也是如此：在一次MS NOW组织的焦点小组讨论中，黑人选民们质疑阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）能为他们做些什么；显然，答案是“什么也做不了”——因为他的主要支持者是哈马斯（Hamas）。另外，如果你是犹太人，那就更不用指望民主党会支持你了……在民主党内部，温和派的观点其实是对犹太人持反对态度的；如今的主流观点是帮助那些想要伤害犹太人的人。
Same thing in Michigan — there was an MS NOW focus group where black Michiganders were wondering what the hell Abdul El-Sayed was going to do for them. And of course, the answer is nothing — his constituency is Hamas. Oh, and if you’re Jewish, forget it. In the Democrat Party, the moderate position is anti-Jewish. The growing mainstream position is to help the people who want to kill them.
一个让黑人士气低落、威胁犹太人的民主党，这个民主党将面临一些选举挑战。虽然不太可能有很多人转而投票给共和党，不过有些人可能会。如果出现显著的抗议投票，那将是抗议性弃权。而我们共和党人会接受他们不投票。
A Democrat Party that has demoralized blacks and threatened Jews is a Democrat Party that’s going to have some electoral challenges. While it’s not particularly likely that many of them will switch over and vote for the Republican, though some may. If there’s a significant protest vote, it’s going to be a protest non-vote. And we Republicans will take them not voting.
这本来就注定是一个艰难的选举周期，但通常发生的事情往往会再次发生。共和党人会回归。他们可能很生气，但我们每一个投过米特·罗姆尼票的人都明白共和党人会做什么。他们最终会咬紧牙关，拉下杠杆。这一点在红州尤其正确；你很少会在押注红州会变红时输掉。
This was always going to be a tough election cycle, but the things that usually happen tend to be the things that happen again. Republicans come home. They may be mad, but every one of us out there who voted for Mitt Romney understands what Republicans do. They swallow hard and pull the lever in the end. This is especially true in red states; you rarely lose if you bet on a red state going red.
但回归常态也使得我们在明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州的“拉伸目标”很可能最终触手可及之外。归根结底，偏蓝州可能还是会投蓝票，但这并不意味着我们不继续推进和尝试。毕竟，弱者有时也会赢。偶尔会出现冷门。这可能发生在我们的红州。我们可能会遇到一两个，甚至三个不愉快的惊喜。但民主党人也可能如此。
But reversion to form also makes it likely that our stretch goals in Minnesota and New Hampshire will end up just out of reach. In the end, bluish states are probably going to vote blue, but that doesn’t mean we don’t keep pushing and trying. After all, underdogs sometimes win. Every once in a while, you have an upset. That could happen with us in our red states. We may get an unpleasant surprise or two, or even three. But so might the Democrats.
不过，氛围已经转变。基调已经改变。这不是在自我麻痹，而是客观地看待所有事实。海啸已经变成了暗流，在未来三周内可能再次变成平静的水面，我们最终可能得到一个几乎没有变化的参议院。而且，与一个月前相比，我们会很高兴接受这一点。
Still, the vibe has shifted. The tone has changed. That’s not mainlining copium; that’s looking at all the facts objectively. The tsunami has morphed into an undertow and over the next three weeks may morph again into still water, and we may end up with a Senate that hasn’t changed much at all. And, compared to where we were a month ago, we will be glad to take it.
距离库尔特下一部充满动作的保守派小说《美国军阀》发行只有一个月了，现在已经开始预售！阅读库尔特的凯利·特恩布尔/人民共和国系列，包括最新的《巴拿马红》，并在 X 上关注库尔特 @KurtSchlichter！
Just one month until Kurt’s next action-packed conservative novel, “American Warlord,” is unleashed, and it is out for presale now! Read Kurt’s Kelly Turnbull/People’s Republic series, including the latest "Panama Red," and follow Kurt on X @KurtSchlichter!
编者注：2026年中期选举将决定特朗普总统“美国优先”议程的命运。共和党必须保持对国会两院的控制权。
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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