东京——周二举行的20年期日本国债招标显示，对超长期日本国债的需求强劲，因为法国国债的不确定性以及对人工智能相关金融风险的担忧，刺激了投资者对被视为相对安全资产的食欲。
TOKYO -- Demand for ultralong-term Japanese government bonds proved brisk at an auction Tuesday of 20-year debt as uncertainty around French bonds and worries about AI-related financial risk whet investors' appetite for assets seen as relatively safe.
据市场观察人士称，这笔约7000亿日元（约合44.3亿美元）的招标，票面利率为3.8%，结果好于预期。投标倍数达到5.84的历史新高。“尾差”——即加权平均价格与最低中标价格之差，尾差越小表示招标越成功——仅为0.07日元，为7月以来最好水平。
The roughly 700 billion yen ($4.43 billion) auction, with a 3.8% nominal coupon, went better than expected, according to market watchers. The bid-to-cover ratio reached a record high of 5.84. The tail -- the difference between the weighted-average price and the lowest accepted price, with a small tail indicating a successful auction -- was just 0.07 yen, the best since July.
招标结束后，上一期20年期日本国债收益率一度下跌至3.71%，较周一收盘下降0.06个百分点，为9月初以来最低水平。招标前，该收益率曾升至3.785%，上涨0.015个百分点。
After the auction, yields on the previous batch of 20-year JGBs fell to 3.71% at one point, down 0.06 percentage point from Monday's close and their lowest since early September. They had risen to 3.785% before the auction, up 0.015 point.
最新发行的30年期日本国债收益率最大下跌0.045个百分点至3.935%，为8月中旬以来水平。
The yield on the most recently issued 30-year JGBs fell as much as 0.045 point to 3.935%, a level last seen in mid-August.
SBI证券首席债券策略师户毛英二指出，买盘似乎源于“排除法”，并表示：“法国国债不稳定，且对与人工智能相关的信用风险的担忧正在蔓延。”法国在预算审议和明年春季总统大选前，政治和财政担忧加剧，推高了债券收益率。在人工智能方面，围绕美国云服务提供商CoreWeave的担忧扰乱了市场。市场观察人士注意到，周二日本国债招标中，身份不明投标者的中标份额异常高。
Eiji Doke, chief bond strategist at SBI Securities, suggested that the buying seemed to stem from "process of elimination" and noted that "French government bonds are unstable, and worry about credit risks related to AI has been spreading." Intensifying political and fiscal concerns in France ahead of budget deliberations and next spring's presidential election have put upward pressure on bond yields. On the AI front, fears surrounding U.S. cloud services provider CoreWeave have disrupted markets Market watchers noted an unusually high share of successful bids from unidentified bidders in Tuesday's JGB auction.
据日经QUICK News采访统计，此类投标者购买额达5151亿日元，为7月以来最高，当时曾引发关于日本巨额年金积立金管理运营独立行政法人（GPIF）买入的猜测。
Such players accounted for 515.1 billion yen in purchases, based on interviews by Nikkei QUICK News -- the highest since a July auction that stirred speculation about buying by Japan's massive Government Pension Investment Fund.
“随着美国中期选举临近，[日本首相] 高市早苗的政府很可能受到美国政府警告，不要让日本国债收益率上升影响美国国债市场，”一位市场人士表示。“可能有某家大型金融机构进行了大额买入。” 对日本央行终端政策利率的担忧缓解，以及东京的财政扩张，也让投资者买入超长期日本国债时感到更加安心。
"With U.S. midterm elections approaching, [Japanese Prime Minister] Sanae Takaichi's government was likely warned by the U.S. government against letting rising JGB yields affect the U.S. Treasury market," a market player said. "There may have been a big purchase by some major financial institution." Easing concerns about the Bank of Japan's terminal policy rate and fiscal expansion by Tokyo have also made investors feel more comfortable buying ultralong-term JGBs.
市场已消化日本央行将在12月加息的预期。与此同时，高市周一在谈及计划中的食品临时减消费税的资金来源时表示，政府将通过预算改革框架审视收支，同时“审慎审视我国财政规模，并通过最初预算和追加预算适当控制全年国债发行额”。根据日本证券业协会周二发布的数据，外国投资者9月净买入超长期日本国债1.09万亿日元，为1月以来最多。保险公司净买入额为5320亿日元，为6月以来最高。
Markets have priced in an interest rate hike by the Japanese central bank in December. Meanwhile, speaking Monday about funding for a planned temporary consumption tax cut on food, Takaichi said the government would review revenue and spending through a budget reform framework while "carefully examining our fiscal scale and appropriately controlling full-year bond issuance through the initial and supplementary budgets." Foreign investors bought 1.09 trillion yen more in ultralong JGBs than they sold in September, according to data released Tuesday by the Japan Securities Dealers Association -- the most since January. Net buying by insurers was the highest since June, at 532 billion yen.
“这表明市场对日本央行加息路径的共识已趋于固化，”瑞穗证券高级市场经济学家松尾祐介表示。
"This suggests that a market consensus about the BOJ's rate hike path has solidified," said Yusuke Matsuo, senior market economist at Mizuho Securities.