
一家民调公司承认在被美国全国性媒体采用的调查中使用了捏造的数据,声称该项目是一项旨在揭露该行业缺乏审查的“社会实验”。
A polling firm has admitted to using fabricated data in surveys that were picked up by national media outlets in the US, claiming the project was a “social experiment” designed to expose the lack of scrutiny over the sector.
Wedgewood Polls(韦奇伍德民调)周二在社交媒体上发布声明,此前民调与选举分析网站 FiftyPlusOne 就其对该公司调查和数据进行的调查征求置评。
Wedgewood Polls released a statement on Tuesday on social media, after the polling and election analysis site FiftyPlusOne reached out for comment on an investigation it had conducted into their surveys and data.
在声明中,Wedgewood Polls 承认捏造了其数据,并表示该项目旨在作为一次“警钟”,意在“展示现代政治民调行业的脆弱性、缺乏监管以及总体上极低的准入门槛”。
In its statement, Wedgewood Polls admitted to fabricating its numbers, and said the project was designed as a “wake-up call”, intended “to demonstrate the vulnerabilities, lack of oversight, and overall low barrier to entry in the modern political polling industry”.
声明称:“我们捏造的数字在全国性媒体平台上瞬间获得了公信力。未经核实的数字如此轻易地被纳入主流政治叙事,凸显了媒体审核和数据聚合中的系统性失灵。” 转载 Wedgewood Polls 欺诈性调查的出版物包括《新闻周刊》(Newsweek)、《国会山报》(The Hill)、《布赖特巴特新闻网》(Breitbart)、《每日野兽》(The Daily Beast)和《华盛顿观察家报》(Washington Examiner);将其结果纳入民调数据库的则包括《纽约时报》、内特·西尔弗(Nate Silver)、VoteHub 和 FiftyPlusOne。
“Our fabricated numbers were given instant credibility across national media platforms,” the statement said. “The ease with which unverified figures were absorbed into mainstream political narratives highlights a systemic breakdown in media vetting and data aggregation.”Publications that reproduced Wedgewood Polls’s fraudulent surveys included Newsweek, the Hill, Breitbart, the Daily Beast and the Washington Examiner, and those that included its results in their polling databases included the New York Times, Nate Silver, VoteHub and FiftyPlusOne.
在 Wedgewood 承认造假后,选举结果与分析网站 Decision Desk HQ 表示,已从其竞选层面的民调列表和平均值中移除了 17 份民调;《纽约时报》则在一份编辑说明中表示,其所有民调均已从其民调追踪项目中移除。
After Wedgewood’s admission, the election results and analysis site Decision Desk HQ said it had removed 17 polls from its race-level polling lists and averages, and the New York Times said in an editor’s note that all of its polls had been removed from its poll tracking project.
Wedgewood Polls 于 6 月进入民调领域,自称是一家进行独立政治研究的选举调查公司。几周内,即 7 月 10 日,《华盛顿月刊》(Washington Monthly)一位专栏作家指出,其首份路易斯安那州共和党初选决选民调结果“离谱地错误”。
Wedgewood Polls first came on the polling scene in June, billing itself as an election survey firm that conducted independent political research. Within weeks, on 10 July, a Washington Monthly columnist noted that its first poll of the Louisiana Republican primary runoff had been “wildly wrong”.
8月,Straight Arrow News随后调查了Wedgewood的背景,发现其网站托管在Google Sites上,未列出任何员工姓名、电话号码或地点。该网站于6月26日注册,其X账号也于同月创建。
In August, Straight Arrow News then looked into Wedgewood’s background, finding that its website, hosted on Google Sites, listed no employee names, phone number or location. Its website had been registered on 26 June, and its X account created that same month.
8月16日,Urban Milwaukee的一名记者在Wedgewood的一项关于威斯康星州民主党州长初选的民调显示Francesca Hong支持率为30%——“在合法民调显示她的得票率远低于此的时候”——后,将Wedgewood称为“一个可疑的机构”。
On 16 August, an Urban Milwaukee journalist referred to Wedgewood as “a shady outfit” after one of its polls regarding the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor showed Francesca Hong at 30% “at a time when legitimate polls had her with far less of the vote”.
另一家公司的民主党民调师Adam Carlson告诉Straight Arrow News,他在X上对Wedgewood提出质疑后,曾与Wedgewood的某人进行过沟通。Carlson表示,对方告诉他,这家两人公司由一名进步派和一名保守派组成。他们拒绝透露身份或参与视频通话,声称Wedgewood的两人之一此前曾遭遇过人肉搜索和网络骚扰。
Adam Carlson, a Democratic pollster at a different firm, told Straight Arrow News that he had communicated with someone at Wedgewood after he raised a question about them on X. Carlson said the person told him the two-person firm includes one progressive and one conservative. They declined to reveal their identities or participate in a video call, claiming that one of the two people at Wedgewood had previously experienced doxing and online harassment.
随后,FiftyPlusOne的研究人员收到一条线索——此前他们曾收到过其他关于Wedgewood的线索,但缺乏证据——10月初的线索表明Wedgewood一直在伪造数据。他们获取了Wedgewood针对密西西比州参议员选举的民调原始数据,这是该公司最近一次民调,公司称该民调是使用在线调查平台Pollfish进行的。
Then FiftyPlusOne researchers received a tip – after having previously received other tips about Wedgewood that lacked evidence – earlier in October suggesting that Wedgewood had been faking its data. They obtained Wedgewood’s raw data for its Mississippi Senate survey, their most recent survey, which the company said had been conducted using online survey platform Pollfish.
FiftyPlusOne表示,他们在数据中发现了差异,并向Wedgewood提出了质询。该公司随后发表了声明。密歇根州参议员Mallory McMorrow,一名民主党人,于7月5日退出了一场激烈的美国参议员初选竞选,她表示,Wedgewood的数据显示,在之前几周她的支持率大幅下跌。结果,她的捐款枯竭,志愿者感到“极度沮丧”,记者“穷追猛打”地打电话要求她退出竞选,她说道。
FiftyPlusOne said it identified discrepancies in the data and confronted Wedgewood with its findings. The firm then published its statement on Michigan state senator Mallory McMorrow, a Democrat, who dropped out of a contentious US Senate primary campaign on 5 July, said that Wedgewood’s numbers indicated that her support had plunged in the weeks prior. As a result, her donations dried up, volunteers were left “devastated”, and reporters “hounded” her with calls to drop out of the race, she said.
麦克莫罗在 X 上写道:“当然,一个观点得到了证明。民调已经失灵。但成千上万的人倾注了心血、时间、精力、辛苦赚来的钱,投入到他们所相信的事业中——长达一年半,却被当作一场游戏对待。我们的志愿者倾尽所有,甚至更多。我觉得我辜负了他们中的许多人。”
McMorrow wrote on X: “Sure, a point was proven. Polling is broken. But tens of thousands of people poured their hearts, time, energy, hard-earned money into something they believed in – for a year-and-a-half, and it was treated like a game. Our volunteers gave their all. And then some. I felt like I had let so many of them down.”
她接着说:“信任已跌至历史最低点。如果不重建信任,我们无法摆脱这团乱麻。媒体——热衷于乘着民调过山车的戏剧性波动——需要认真审视什么是合法的,什么不是。” 此事紧随八月的一起类似事件:英国《卫报》追踪到一名 21 岁的应届大学毕业生,发现他操办了一个匿名网站,发布了在威斯康星州、内华达州和加利福尼亚州广泛流传的虚假选举民调。
She went on: “Trust is already at an all-time low. We don’t get out of this mess without rebuilding trust. And media – who loves to ride the drama of a pollercoaster – needs to take a hard look at what’s legitimate and what’s not.”The affair followed a similar story in August in which the Guardian tracked down a 21-year-old recent college graduate who was found to be behind an anonymous website that put out widely shared fake election polling in Wisconsin, Nevada and California.
该网站“Median Strategies”在《洛杉矶时报》一名记者提问后的前一周突然关闭并撤回了其民调。在一份未署名声明中,它同样将此描述为一项“短期社会实验”,旨在考察虚假民调“如何在缺乏独立核实的情况下进入并扩散通过政治信息生态系统”。
That site, Median Strategies, had abruptly shut down and withdrew its polling the week prior after questions from a Los Angeles Times reporter. In an unsigned statement, it similarly described a “short-term social experiment” to examine how fake polling “could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification”.
“我想看看虚假民调是否真的能如此轻易地渗透进该生态系统,”拉希尔·普拉卡什在接受《卫报》电话联系时表示。“结果证明,它能。”
“I wanted to see if fake polls could really penetrate the ecosystem that easily,” Rahil Prakash told the Guardian when reached by phone. “And as it turned out, it could.”