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一家假民调机构如何可能影响了2026年的一些选举How a fake pollster may have moved some 2026 elections

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2026年4月19日,在底特律举行的密歇根州民主党州背书大会上,密歇根州参议员马洛里·麦克莫罗听取媒体提问。Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow listens to questions from the media during the Michigan Democratic Party State Endorsement Convention on April 19, 2026, in Detroit.

一家曾通过民意调查影响竞选决策、并左右中期选举舆论走向的公司,于周二晚间承认自己伪造了相关数据,这一行为在选举圈内引发了轩然大波。

A new company whose polls had influenced campaign decisions and helped shape the midterms narrative admitted that it was faking its polling data on Tuesday night, setting off a firestorm in the electionsphere.

Wedgewood Polls公司原本面临FiftyPlusOne的调查结果公布——该调查指出该公司完全捏造了民意调查数据。周二深夜,该公司宣称这项调查其实只是一个“实验性项目”,旨在展示一个“完全虚构的民意调查机构”如何能够左右公众舆论,同时将自己塑造成“正义的一方”。该公司曾对舆论产生一定影响,其数据还被《纽约时报》等多家权威民意调查机构采用;在POLITICO的每日民意调查汇总报告中,该公司的数据也被提及了两次。

Wedgewood Polls, facing an imminent publication of an investigation from FiftyPlusOne showing it was fabricating its numbers, declared late Tuesday night that it had been an “experimental project” to show how an “entirely fabricated polling firm” could sway public opinion while painting themselves as the good guys. They’d left an impact and been included by multiple credible polling aggregators including The New York Times — and mentioned twice in POLITICO's Morning Score polling roundup.

关于Wedgewood Polls的真实目的,外界猜测纷纷:他们究竟是想帮助民主党进步派在初选中获胜?如果是这样,幕后真正推动这一计划的是民主党还是共和党?还是说这些数据被用于操纵博彩市场?又或者是一些政治精英利用这些虚假数据来制定竞选策略?此外,那些负责汇总民意调查数据的机构是否反应过于迅速,导致虚假数据被迅速公开?

Speculation is flying about what, exactly, Wedgewood was trying to achieve, and there’s still little public information about the defunct company that had crowdfunded thousands of dollars for its fake data. Was it an effort to boost progressives Democrats in primaries? If so, were progressives or Republicans really behind it? Was it being used to game betting markets? Were top operatives using the bogus data to make spending decisions?

尝试发送邮件至该公司在X平台(TikTok)上公布的联系方式时,邮件被直接退回;与该账户相关的所有民意调查报告的PDF文件也已从网上消失。

Were aggregation accounts too quick to jump on posting the data? An email to the account listed on Wedgewood’s X account bounced back, and previous PDFs of polls that were tied to the account are no longer available online.

无论Wedgewood Polls声称自己的目的为何(该公司仍坚称该项目“从未旨在影响选举结果或长期误导公众”),民意调查专家、政治人士及候选人一致认为,在网上发布虚假数据确实会带来严重的现实后果。

Regardless of what Wedgewood said it was trying to achieve (they remain adamant the project “was never intended to sway an election or permanently mislead the public”) — pollsters, operatives and candidates alike said there were real world implications for posting fake data online.

未能在密歇根州民主党参议院初选中胜出的Mallory McMorrow表示,一份伪造的Wedgewood民意调查报告显示她的支持率大幅下降(仅剩个位数),这一结果导致捐款骤减,志愿者们感到极度沮丧,许多人因此决定退出竞选。

Mallory McMorrow, the unsuccessful Michigan Democratic Senate candidate who dropped out before her primary, said a fake Wedgewood poll that showed her crashing to single-digit support against Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens “dried up” donations, “devastated” volunteers and led to numerous calls to exit the race.

“这真的让我们崩溃了,”麦克莫罗在社交媒体上写道,“那是竞选活动中最糟糕的几天,尤其是对我的团队来说。这种打击对士气的影响无法用言语形容,我也无能为力,无法安慰我的团队。”

“It killed us,” McMorrow wrote on X. “These were some of the absolute worst days on the campaign. Especially for my team. There are no words to explain the morale blow, and nothing I could do or say to my team to fix it.”

詹妮弗·霍尔德沃斯是一位民主党工作人员,她负责管理一个支持麦克莫罗的超级政治行动委员会(super PAC)。她表示,Wedgewood公司发布的民调被一些捐助者用作削减资金的依据,而当时民主党的竞选支出已经比对手多出了8000万美元。该账户还发布了一项民调,显示民主社会主义者弗朗西斯卡·洪在威斯康星州的州长初选中处于领先地位(尽管当时几乎没有公开的民调数据),这一信息加剧了人们认为她会在选举中获胜的预期(但她最终还是落败了)。

Jennifer Holdsworth, a Democratic operative who ran a super PAC supporting McMorrow, said the Wedgewood poll “was used by several donors to pull back funding at a time we were being outspent by $80 million.”The account also posted a poll showing democratic socialist Francesca Hong leading in Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, when there was scant public polling, something that contributed to the narrative she was ahead before the election (which she lost).

在民主党向该州投入大量资金之前,该账户还发布了一项民调,称民主党在密西西比州的参议院选举中具有胜算。参选的民主党候选人斯科特·科洛姆将这项民调作为自己“拥有巨大优势”的证据,并将其发送给了自己的媒体联系人。

They also posted a poll showing the Mississippi Senate race within reach, just before Democrats plowed money into the state. Scott Colom, the Democrat running for the seat, blasted the poll to his press list as proof there was “massive momentum” behind him.

这引发了选举观察者的质疑:Wedgewood公司的数据是否被一些外部政治团体用来制定竞选策略?对此,民主党主要的参议院超级政治行动委员会回应称:“绝对不是这样。我们不会根据外部民调来决定支出或战略方向。”

FiftyPlusOne组织在调查中表示,他们之所以将Wedgewood公司的民调数据纳入自己的数据汇总平台,是因为该公司的创始人曾从事过民意调查相关工作。

That led election watchers to argue that Wedgewood’s data was being used to make spending decisions in top outside groups, which elicited a response from Democrats’ main Senate super PAC. “Absolutely not. We don’t make spending or strategic decisions based on external polling,” Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, said on In its investigation, FiftyPlusOne said it had included Wedgewood in its aggregator because the firm was founded by people who had worked in the polling industry previously.

此外,人们普遍指责那些频繁发布民调的社交媒体账户——有时甚至不验证这些数据的准确性。

There’s also been broad finger pointing at the aggregator X accounts that post polls frequently — and sometimes without verifying their accuracy.

当Polling USA报道称“我对Wedgewood公司的怀疑是正确的”时,Wedgewood公司的账户回应道:“你们多次发布了我们的民调结果。如果你们怀疑这些数据是虚假的,为什么还要继续发布它们呢?”

“You posted our polls multiple times. If you suspected it was fake, why did you post our results?”Wedgewood’s account shot back after Polling USA wrote that “my suspicions about Wedgewood were correct.”

整个事件凸显了2028年民意调查可能带来的巨大影响:届时两党都将举行总统初选,而民调结果可能会迅速改变舆论走向。

The whole ordeal illuminates just how big a problem polling could be in 2028, where both parties will have presidential primaries and polling can shift the narrative on a dime.

“我担心的问题本质上是信息污染,也就是那些要么意在扭曲预测市场、要么纯粹是四处传播的虚假信息,”民主党团体Searchlight的民调专家夏洛特·斯瓦西近日对《政客》杂志表示。“尤其是在初选中,要告诉人们他们所看到的关于自己青睐候选人的信息并非真实,会非常困难。”本文的一个版本最初发表于POLITICO Pro的《晨间选情》。想每个工作日都收到这份简报吗?订阅POLITICO Pro。你还将获得每日政策新闻以及其他情报,助你应对当日最重大的新闻。

“What I’m concerned about is essentially information pollution, things that are either intended to skew prediction markets or just straight misinformation flying around,” Charlotte Swasey, a pollster for the Democratic group Searchlight, told POLITICO Magazine recently. “It would be really difficult, especially in a primary, to tell people that what they’re seeing about their preferred candidate isn’t real.”A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

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