这个人永远不会停止对某些东西的追求……在某处秘密进行的训练演习中，一名乌克兰军人展示了一架被截获的无人机。
This is a man who will never stop wanting certain things. A Ukrainian serviceman holds an intercepted drone during a training exercise at an undisclosed location. | Oleksii Filippov/AFP via Getty Images Nahal Toosi is POLITICO’s senior foreign affairs correspondent.
——Oleksii Filippov/AFP via Getty Images Nahal Toosi 是《POLITICO》杂志的高级外交事务记者。她的职业生涯让她走遍了世界各地，报道过战争、种族灭绝以及政治动荡等事件。她的专栏《Compass》深入剖析了全球国家安全与外交政策制定者的决策过程，以及这些决策所带来的后果。
She has reported on war, genocide and political chaos in a career that has taken her around the world. Her reported column, Compass, delves into the decision-making of the global national security and foreign policy establishment — and the fallout that comes from it.
世界逐渐意识到：根本无法完全、持久地抵御唐纳德·特朗普的威胁。这个人就是不肯放弃自己的目标，会不择手段地达成自己的目的。
The world is starting to understand that there is no way to fully and lastingly protect itself from President Donald Trump. The man just can’t let things go — and he’ll get creative to get what he wants.
最近围绕乌克兰问题的激烈冲突，正是特朗普这种狡猾且顽固的作风的典型体现；即便民主党在中期选举中赢得一些权力，国际社会仍将面临充满挑战的两年。
The latest blowup over Ukraine is emblematic of Trump’s wily persistence, and it suggests a challenging two years lie ahead for the international set even if Democrats gain some power in the midterm elections.
就在不久前，随着基辅在对抗俄罗斯的过程中取得进展，特朗普似乎与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的关系有所缓和。上个月，特朗普签署了由已故的朋友林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham，共和党人）推动的法案，对俄罗斯实施了新的制裁和关税，以惩罚其对乌克兰的战争行为。
Not that long ago, Trump seemed to have patched up ties with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Kyiv made gains against Russia. Trump signed legislation last month that was championed by his late friend, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), to impose heavy new sanctions and tariffs to punish Russia for its war on Ukraine.
然而本月，那个曾经对俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米尔·普京阿谀奉承、却鄙视泽连斯基的特朗普又重新露出了真面目：他取消了大部分针对俄罗斯的制裁措施，还表示更愿意与莫斯科开展商业合作，而非为基辅谋求正义。乌克兰方面怀疑美国通过限制卫星通信和情报共享来向他们施压（特朗普政府对此予以否认）。
“坦率地说，俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上做得还不错，”特朗普周一表示，并对与普京及中国领导人习近平举行军控峰会表示欢迎，预计峰会也会讨论乌克兰问题。
This month, the original Trump — the one who fawns over Russian leader Vladimir Putin and despises Zelenskyy — roared back. He waived many of the legislation’s penalties on Russia, moved to buy Russian diesel and signaled he’s more interested in doing business with Moscow than seeking justice for Kyiv. Ukrainians suspect the U.S. has pressured them by throttling its satellite connections and intelligence-sharing. (The Trump administration disputes much of this.)“Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine,” Trump said Monday as he welcomed the idea of an arms control summit with Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping that might include talks about Ukraine.
外交官和其他资深外交人士告诉我，教训在于：你无法真正改变特朗普的想法，也无法阻挡他的整体走向。即使特朗普看似短暂受挫或进行战术性撤退，他最终也会以新的、往往令人意想不到的方式回归，继续推行他原本的观点和目标。他会试图耗尽你的耐心，迫使你屈服。
The lesson, foreign officials and others steeped in diplomacy tell me, is that you cannot truly change Trump’s mind or stop his overall trajectory. Even if Trump seems briefly chastened or stages a tactical retreat, he will eventually return in new, often-surprising modes to push his original views and goals. He will try to exhaust you into submission.
试想一下，身为乌克兰人，在特朗普施压要求你向俄罗斯做出让步、并指责你导致了一场他因对伊朗发动战争而引发的全球能源危机之际，会有多么震惊。或者，身处各个欧洲首都的官员，明知这一过程永无止境，却仍在设法拟定应对之策，那又是何种滋味。
Imagine how startling it is to be Ukrainian these days as Trump pressures you to make concessions to Russia by blaming you for a global energy crisis he caused by launching a war on Iran. Or what it’s like for officials across European capitals trying to craft a response, knowing there’s never an end to the process.
“特朗普让人无法产生免疫力。他达成一项协议，是为了第二天达成一项更好的协议，”一位欧洲高级官员感叹道，因话题涉及敏感外交，该官员获准匿名。
“There is no immunity to Donald Trump. He makes a deal in order to make a better deal the next day,” one senior European official mused, having been granted anonymity because the topic involves sensitive diplomacy.
世界领导人自以为学会了如何应对特朗普，却突然被他出其不意的一记重拳打得不知所措，这很难怪罪他们。当缺乏好的选项时，外交政策往往由希望驱动。而“特朗普学”是一个令人困惑、但仍相对较新的细分领域。
It’s hard to blame world leaders who think they’ve learned to manage Trump only to be bewildered by a sudden left hook on his part. Foreign policy is often driven by hope when you lack good options. And Trumpology is a confounding, but still a relatively new, subfield.
此外，特朗普的信息传递前后不一、逻辑不通且缺乏战略性——这些特征可能掩盖了他一心一意追求目标的本质。因此，与他打交道的全球行为体——无论是向他大肆馈赠礼物的海湾阿拉伯国家，还是因其贸易和领土威胁而愤怒的加拿大人——有时自以为已与他达成共识，却发现自己正在一个全新配置的平面上战斗。
Besides, Trump’s messaging is inconsistent, incoherent and nonstrategic — characteristics that can obscure his single-minded pursuit of his goals. So the global actors dealing with him — whether it’s the Gulf Arab states who shower him with gifts or the Canadians furious over his trade and territorial threats — sometimes think they’ve come to terms with him only to find they’re fighting on a newly configured plane.
今年早些时候，美国最高法院作出裁决，大幅削减了特朗普的许多关税，这在许多首都被视为好消息。但自那以来，这位所谓的“关税男人”已转而以法院未曾考量的借口征收进口关税，包括诉诸强迫劳动指控。白宫对特朗普的强硬手段不予否认。
A Supreme Court ruling that gutted many of Trump’s tariffs earlier this year was good news in many capitals. But since then, the so-called Tariff Man has moved to impose the import taxes under pretexts not considered by the court, including turning to accusations involving forced labor. The White House doesn’t dispute Trump’s aggressive tactics.
“在捍卫‘美国优先’利益方面，没有人比特朗普总统更坚定——他愿意直视任何人的眼睛，为美国争取胜利，”发言人安娜·凯利在一份声明中告诉我。格陵兰岛风波显示了试图安抚特朗普的局限性。
“There is no greater fighter for America First interests than President Trump — and he is willing to look anyone in the eye to deliver wins on behalf of the United States,” spokesperson Anna Kelly told me in a statement. The Greenland saga shows the limits of trying to mollify Trump.
在第一个任期内，特朗普想要购买这座冰封的岛屿。这个想法在全球哄笑声中被搁置，但格陵兰和丹麦当局向特朗普明确表示，他们欢迎更多美国投资进入这块丹麦领土。
In his first term, Trump wanted to buy the frozen island. The idea was shelved amid global laughter, but authorities in Greenland and Denmark made it clear to Trump that they welcomed more U.S. investment in the Danish territory.
在第二个任期内，特朗普大肆鼓吹全面接管格陵兰岛，最终却在9月同意扩大美国的军事存在——根据现有的、已存在几十年的外交协议，即使不搞这么大的动静，他本也能得到这一点。整件事导致欧洲持续愤怒，加拿大领导人称之为全球秩序的“决裂”——但许多欧洲官员希望这场风波已经平息。
In his second term, Trump huffed and puffed about an all-out U.S. takeover of Greenland, only to agree in September to an expanded U.S. military footprint that he could have gotten anyway under existing, decades-old diplomatic accords without all the drama. The whole affair has led to lingering anger in Europe about what Canada’s leader called a “rupture” in the global order — but many European officials hoped that the saga had faded away.
然而，特朗普是否已经放弃拥有格陵兰岛远未可知。就在几天前，他在社交媒体上吹嘘计划在“我们崭新而美丽的格陵兰岛”开始石油、天然气和矿产勘探。“我们”一词的使用极具暗示性。对抗特朗普也只能走这么远。
Yet, it’s far from certain that Trump has given up on possessing Greenland. Just days ago, he touted on social media plans to start oil, gas and mineral exploration in “our new and beautiful Greenland.”The use of “our” is more than a little suggestive. Defying Trump, too, can get you only so far.
当特朗普利用关税和制裁惩罚巴西起诉其前总统博尔索纳罗发动政变未遂时，巴西人实际上告诉特朗普“滚开”。
Brazilians effectively told Trump to take a hike when he used tariffs and sanctions to punish the country for charging its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, in a coup attempt.
几个月后，就在博尔索纳罗即将开始服刑之际，特朗普似乎承认在帮助其政治盟友的努力中失败了。“太遗憾了，”他在2025年11月淡淡地说道。（《纽约时报》宣称：“巴西对抗特朗普并获胜。”）但特朗普并未就此罢手。他及其团队一直在寻求削弱现任巴西政府，同时悄悄支持博尔索纳罗之子弗拉维奥竞选今年总统大选。决选将于周日举行，局势胶着。
A few months later, as Bolsonaro was about to start his prison sentence, Trump seemed to admit defeat in his effort to help his political ally. “That’s too bad,” he said in November 2025, with little emotion. (“Brazil Defied Trump and Won,” The New York Times declared.) But Trump wasn’t done with Brazil. He and his team have pursued efforts to undercut the current Brazilian government while quietly backing Bolsonaro’s son, Flávio, in his efforts to win the presidency this year. The runoff election is on Sunday, and it’s tight.
世界各国领导人正在尽其所能，让自己的国家能够抵御特朗普的影响，即便做不到完全“免疫”。
World leaders are doing what they can to make their countries Trump-resistant, if not all-out Trump-proof.
这意味着他们要采取各种措施，从实现贸易和安全联盟来源的多元化，到与特朗普一起参与那些至少表面上对他们有益的项目。（此外，外交官们私下告诉我，还有许多国家——尤其是非洲国家——乐于不被特朗普关注。）然而，我观察这一切得出的结论是：仅仅领先特朗普一步是不够的。你必须领先好几步，而且必须极具想象力，才能预料到特朗普和他忠实的助手们为了给你的生活制造麻烦，愿意走到多远。
That has meant everything from diversifying their sources of trade and security alliances to joining Trump on ventures that, on the surface at least, can be helpful to them. (Then there are the many countries, especially in Africa, that diplomats privately tell me are happy to be off Trump’s radar.) My takeaway from watching all of this, though, is that it’s not enough to stay one step ahead of Trump. You have to stay several steps ahead, and you have to be wildly imaginative about the lengths to which Trump and his devoted aides are willing to go to complicate your life.
第二届特朗普政府中充满了这样的人：他们诉诸对法律和现实的独特、离奇且巧妙的解释来推进他的议程。并不总是清楚谁在幕后推动哪项举措，但很难想象特朗普对正在发生的大部分事情会不满意。
The second Trump administration is filled with people who have turned to unique, bizarre and clever interpretations of law and reality to push his agenda. It’s not always clear who is behind which move, but it’s hard to imagine Trump isn’t fine with most of what’s happening.
这就是为什么一名青少年因为其祖母几十年前的行为而被关押在移民拘留所。这就是为什么国会可以对其支出指令大声疾呼，而特朗普却置之不理。
It’s why a teenager is being held in immigration detention for the actions of his grandmother decades ago. It’s why Congress can scream and shout about its spending orders yet Trump ignores it.
参议员克里斯·墨菲（民主党-康涅狄格州）表示，其他国家不应指望共和党在特朗普下台后会放弃他的世界观，包括他对盟友的蔑视。
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said other nations should not hope that the Republican Party will shed Trump’s worldview, including his disdain for allies, once Trump’s out of power.
“我很想让我们的盟友知道，我们有着一贯的共同对手，我们将携手与之战斗。我只是不知道能否做出这样的保证，”经常批评特朗普的墨菲对我说。“这话说起来很痛苦，但鉴于共和党目前的状况，这是事实。”我理解为什么乌克兰和欧盟正试图实现情报来源和军事工业基础的多元化，因为特朗普一直在向俄罗斯示好。
“I would love for our allies to know that we have consistent common adversaries that we’re going to work together to fight. I just don’t know that you can make that guarantee,” Murphy, a frequent Trump critic, told me. “That’s painful to say, but given the state of the Republican Party right now, it’s true.”I understand why Ukraine and the European Union are trying to diversify their sources of intelligence and military industrial bases as Trump keeps chasing love from Russia.
尽管国务卿马尔科·卢比奥做出了种种声称，但现实是，美国在此类安全援助上已不再值得信赖。
Despite Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s claims, the reality is that the United States can no longer be trusted for such security assistance.
但找到新的情报伙伴或武器制造商还不够。你必须提出更大的问题，比如：“有哪些无人知晓的、尚未开发的情报来源？有什么潜在武器是没人考虑过的？我如何在特朗普阻止我之前获得我需要的东西？”各国政府现在就需要为看似完全疯狂的情景制定计划。宁可判断错误，也好过毫无准备。
But it’s not enough to find new intelligence partners or weapons manufacturers. You have to ask bigger questions, like, “What are the untapped streams of intelligence that no one knows are out there? What’s a potential weapon no one has considered? How can I acquire what I need before Trump stops me?”Governments need to have plans — now — for scenarios that seem completely crazy. Better to be wrong than unprepared.
不过，即使你做到了这一切……“我认为不可能领先特朗普两三步，”奥巴马政府时期曾任高级国家安全官员的查尔斯·库普钱说，他显然乐于给人泼冷水。
Still, even if you do all of that … “I don’t think it’s possible to stay two or three steps ahead of Trump,” said Charles Kupchan, a former senior national security official during the Obama administration who apparently enjoys raining on parades.
“他凭冲动行事，”库普钱辩称，他刚出版了一本关于摇摇欲坠的世界秩序的新书。“我们需要设法限制他造成的损害，并熬过他。”现任和前任美国及外国官员告诉我，民主党在11月中期选举中获胜——赢得国会一院或两院——不太可能对在特朗普最后几年任期内约束其海外行动起到多大作用。
“He acts on impulse,” argued Kupchan, who has a new book out on the crumbling world order. “We need to try to limit the damage he’s causing and ride him out.”A Democratic win in November’s midterms — one or both chambers of Congress — is unlikely to do much to rein in Trump’s actions abroad during his final years, current and former U.S. and foreign officials tell me.
他仍然拥有否决权，而且一直愿意无视国会的要求。还有一个事实是，总统在海外采取单边行动的权力远大于在国内的权力。
He still has the veto and has been willing to ignore congressional demands. There’s also the fact that presidents have significantly more power to act in unilateral ways overseas than they do domestically.
乌克兰、欧盟、全世界——都将面对一个政治上受创的特朗普，他可能会在他认为自己必须得到的东西上变本加厉。“他会更加愤怒，”墨菲预测道。
Ukraine, the European Union, the world — all will be dealing with a politically wounded Trump who’s likely to double down on what he feels he must have. “He’s going to be angrier,” Murphy predicted.