库克政治报告在一则有争议的竞选广告搅动选情后，将一场备受关注的州长竞选转向民主党。
The Cook Political Report is shifting a closely watched gubernatorial contest toward Democrats after a controversial campaign ad shook up the race.
这家非党派选举预测机构将俄亥俄州州长竞选从“摇摆”调整为“微幅倾向民主党”，现在倾向于艾米·阿克顿（民主党）在“俄亥俄州”击败维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（共和党）。
The nonpartisan election forecaster moved the governor’s race in Ohio from “toss up” to “lean Democrat,” now favoring Amy Acton (D) to beat Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the Buckeye State.
这场竞选在拉马斯瓦米推出一则广告后引起全国关注，广告中出现了阿克顿的疏远母亲，她声称阿克顿是个“骗子”，并敦促选民不要选她担任俄亥俄州州长。
The race was the source of national attention after Ramaswamy debuted an ad with Acton’s estranged mother, who claims Acton is a “liar” and encourages voters not to elect her as Ohio governor.
阿克顿12岁时被母亲剥夺监护权。她的竞选团队称，她曾遭继父性侵，而她的母亲一直与继父在一起直到其去世。
Acton was removed from her mother’s custody at age 12. Her campaign said that she was sexually abused by her stepfather, who her mother remained with until his death.
这则广告遭到民主党乃至一些共和党人的广泛谴责，包括现任俄亥俄州州长迈克·德温（共和党）。不过，特朗普总统和万斯副总统都强烈为这则广告辩护。
The ad was widely condemned by Democrats and even some Republicans, including current Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R). Still, President Trump and Vice President Vance have both vehemently defended the ad.
库克政治报告参议院和州长编辑杰西卡·泰勒在分析中写道，他们交谈过的共和党人认为这则广告不是明智之举。
Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report’s Senate and governor’s editor, wrote in her analysis that Republicans they have talked to do not think the ad was a smart move.
“我们没有和任何认为这是个好主意的共和党人交谈过，”泰勒写道。“如果你赢定了——或者甚至有信心能赢——就不会投这种电视广告。在震撼弹广告成为全国新闻之前，最近的民调就已经朝着阿克顿有利的方向发展。”库克政治报告在广告发布前对俄亥俄州州长竞选进行了一项民调，发现阿克顿领先拉马斯瓦米五个百分点。本周早些时候，另一家非党派选举预测机构萨巴托水晶球也将其评级从“摇摆”调整为“微幅倾向民主党”。
“We haven’t talked to a GOP source who thought this was a good idea,” Taylor wrote. “This is not the kind of TV ad you run if you’re winning — or even if you’re confident you can. Recent polls were trending in Acton’s direction even before the bombshell ad became a national news story.”Cook conducted a poll of the Ohio gubernatorial race before the ad was released and found Acton leading Ramaswamy by five points. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, another nonpartisan election forecaster, also changed its rating from “toss up” to “leans Democratic” earlier this week.
广告发布后，阿克顿的筹款激增，而拉马斯瓦米的竞选团队现在正花费400万美元将该广告投放到电视上。
Acton’s fundraising has surged since the release of the ad, which Ramaswamy’s campaign is now spending $4 million to put on the air.
非党派选举预测机构《国会山报》合作伙伴决策办公室总部给予阿克顿62%的获胜概率。
Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, gives Acton a 62 percent chance of victory.