迪莫纳，10月25日电 —— 在内盖夫沙漠偏远城镇迪莫纳，这里长期是本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团的大本营，失望的选民正挨家挨户为他的主要对手拉票，希望在周二的以色列大选中推翻这位资深总理。
DIMONA, Oct 25 - In the remote Negev Desert town of Dimona, long a bastion of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, disenchanted voters are going door-to-door campaigning for his top rival, hoping to bring down the veteran prime minister in Israel's election on Tuesday.
这是自2023年10月7日哈马斯发动突袭、震惊全国并将地区推入动荡以来，以色列举行的首次选举。以色列随后在加沙对该武装组织及其在黎巴嫩和伊朗的盟友发动战争。
The ballot is Israel's first since Hamas' October 7, 2023, surprise attack that shook the country and plunged the region into turmoil, as Israel went to war on the militant group in Gaza and its allies in Lebanon and Iran.
10月7日的安全失误导致利库德集团的支持率暴跌。数月来，民调预测内塔尼亚胡由右翼、极右翼和极端正统派政党组成的联盟将失去多数席位。但他的主要对手、中间派的加迪·艾森科特也没有清晰的执政路径，随着选举临近，竞争变得更加胶着。
The October 7 security breach saw Likud's popularity plummet. Opinion polls for months have predicted Netanyahu's coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties losing its majority. But his top rival, centrist Gadi Eisenkot, has no clear path to power either, and the race has become tighter as the election nears.
迪莫纳已成为政治战场，今年3月此地曾遭伊朗导弹袭击，造成数十人受伤。
Dimona, where an Iranian missile wounded dozens in March, has become a political battleground.
“我们必须变革。比比必须下台，”74岁的约西·阿萨亚格说，他表示自己大半生都支持利库德集团。“比比给以色列带来了灾难。” 利库德忠诚者 阿萨亚格是该镇一批居民中的一员，他们试图说服社区投票给艾森科特领导的“雅沙尔”党，民调显示该党与利库德集团势均力敌。
"We must have change. Bibi has to go," said Yossi Assayag, 74, who says he has supported Likud most his life. "Bibi has brought disaster to Israel." LIKUD LOYALISTS Assayag is part of a cohort of town residents trying to convince their community to vote for Eisenkot's party Yashar, which is neck-and-neck with Likud in the polls.
在迪莫纳这并非易事，在2022年上一次选举中，该镇一半选民投给了利库德集团。
It's a tough task in Dimona, where half the voters in the previous 2022 election cast a ballot for Likud.
“我永远不会背叛利库德集团，”领养老金的鲁蒂·奥哈纳说，她表示自60多年前从北非移民以色列以来，一直投利库德集团的票。她说内塔尼亚胡高出对手一筹，批评者指责他对10月7日事件负责是不公平的。
"I will never betray Likud," said Ruti Ohana, a pensioner, who says she has voted Likud ever since immigrating to Israel from North Africa more than 60 years ago. She said Netanyahu was a cut above his rivals, and the blame he receives from detractors for October 7 was unfair.
右翼利库德集团很早就在中东和北非犹太裔（被称为米兹拉希犹太人）中形成了核心选民基础，这些人曾感到被欧洲影响下的中间偏左工党忽视，而工党曾主导以色列数代。
Right-wing Likud long ago formed a core voter base among Jews of Middle Eastern and North African descent, known as Mizrahis, who felt neglected by the European-influenced centre-left Labor Party that dominated Israel for generations.
随着以色列政治向右转型，工党此后已缩减为一个残余派系，目前大约有其他六个政党在争取利库德集团的选民，从中间派到极右翼不等。但过往支持者与该党之间的联系依然紧密。
Labor has since dwindled to a rump as Israeli politics have shifted rightwards, and there are now around half a dozen other parties courting Likud voters, from the centre to the far right. But the link to the party among its past supporters remains strong.
25岁的奥里娅·阿萨夫曾是利库德集团选民，现在转而支持“亚沙尔”，她说：“这里的大多数人投票给利库德集团，仅仅因为他们是这样被抚养长大的。当人们开始考虑自己孩子的未来，而不是父母的过去时，改变就会到来。”争夺动摇的利库德集团支持者米哈尔·埃尔马莱姆·阿布表示，尽管内塔尼亚胡拥有无法被争取的铁杆支持者，但奖品是那些“明白我们正处于危机状态”且易于说服的未决选民。阿布作为利库德集团成员当选市议员，目前正领导埃森科特在迪莫纳的竞选活动。
"Most people here vote for Likud just because that's how they were raised," said Oria Asaf, 25, a past Likud voter now backing Yashar. "The change will come when people start to think about their children's future rather than their parents' past." BATTLE FOR WAVERING LIKUDNIKS While Netanyahu has a hard core of supporters that can't be won over, the prize is undecided voters who "understand that we are in a state of crisis" and are open to persuasion, said Michal Elmalem Abu, elected as a member of the city council from Likud and now leading Eisenkot's Dimona campaign.
根据以色列民主研究所维特比家庭民意与政策研究中心收集的数据，约有13%的以色列选民尚未决定如何投票。
Some 13% of Israeli voters have yet to decide how they will vote, according to data collected by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute.
在2022年投票给利库德集团的人中，目前只有55%的人表示他们将在周二再次投票给该党。15%的人将支持反对内塔尼亚胡的政党，其中8%支持“亚沙尔”。另有14%的人将投票给其他右翼政党，9%的人尚未决定。
Of those who voted for Likud in 2022, just 55% now say they will vote for the party again on Tuesday. Fifteen percent will support parties aligned against Netanyahu, including 8% for Yashar. Another 14% will vote for alternative right-wing parties, and 9% are undecided.
哈特曼研究所政治学家阿莫茨·阿萨-埃尔表示，正是在迪莫纳这样地方，埃森科特才有机会从利库德集团的票仓中咬下一块。
It is in places just like Dimona where Eisenkot stands a chance to bite a chunk out of Likud's base, said Amotz Asa-El, a political scientist at the Hartman Institute.
现年66岁的埃森科特是摩洛哥移民的后代，他通过层层晋升成为军队总参谋长。阿萨-埃尔说，他有着来自米兹拉希犹太人社区的出身卑微的个人经历，“吸引了广大以色列选民，尤其是利库德集团的传统选民”。
A child of Moroccan immigrants who rose through the ranks to become military chief of staff, Eisenkot, 66, has a personal story of humble origins from the Mizrahi community that "appeals to a big swath of the Israeli electorate, particularly Likud's traditional electorate", said Asa-El.
在一个挤满前军人的选举领域中，他无可匹敌的安全资历是一项资产。他在2023年12月加沙战斗中阵亡的儿子的悲剧，引发了选民的共鸣。
In an electoral field crowded with ex-soldiers, his peerless security credentials are an asset. The loss of his son, killed in combat in Gaza in December 2023, resonates with voters.
在七月访问迪莫纳期间的一次市政厅会议上，居民们表示对一位米兹拉希犹太裔领导人出现的前景感到兴奋。其他人上前拥抱他，并含泪就他儿子的去世表示哀悼。
At a town hall during a visit to Dimona in July, residents said they were excited about the prospect of a leader of Mizrahi descent. Others approached him with hugs and tearful condolences for the loss of his son.
但一周后，内塔尼亚胡举办了自己的活动，展示了他在内盖夫这片艰苦地区的强大号召力，利库德集团政府长期以来一直以给该地区带来发展资金而自豪。
But a week later Netanyahu held his own event, demonstrating his powerful appeal in the hardscrabble Negev, where Likud governments have long boasted of bringing development funds.
“环顾四周，看看你们的社区，看看过去这里是什么样、现在是什么样，问问自己是哪些政府投入了这项宏大的工程。我这样做是出于极大的爱，”他说。
"Look around you, look at your community, look at what was here then and what is here now, and ask yourselves which governments invested in this monumental effort. And I do this out of immense love," he said.
利库德集团前基里亚特马拉基市长利奥尔·卡察夫表示，该党的民调显示，随着大选临近，曾经抛弃利库德集团的选民正在回流。
Lior Katzav, a Likud former mayor of Kiryat Malachi, another small-town stronghold, said party surveys show voters who had abandoned Likud are returning as the election nears.
但即使是一些同情内塔尼亚胡的人也说，可能是时候改变了。他在30年前首次当选时是以色列最年轻的总理，此后成为任职时间最长的总理，现年77岁，共执政18年，历经六个任期。
But even some who are sympathetic to Netanyahu say it may be time for a change. Israel's youngest prime minister when he was first elected 30 years ago, he has since become its longest-serving, now 77, having governed for 18 years over six terms.
“是时候让他离开了，”迪莫纳软件工程师大卫·伊斯卡利说。“他为以色列做了很多，但不能继续下去了。我不会把票投给一个快80岁的人。” 路透社
"It's time for him to go," said Dimona software engineer David Iskali. "He's done a lot for Israel but it can't go on. I won't give my vote to someone almost 80-years-old." REUTERS