Kiryat Shmona, Israel's largest commercial center in the far north, has long supported Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party.

MELANIE LIDMAN KIRYAT SHMONA, Israel — Kiryat Shmona has long been a bastion of support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. But that loyalty is no longer ironclad.

Once a bustling commercial center, Israel’s northernmost city was temporarily evacuated three years ago after being battered by rockets from nearby Lebanon and it still feels half-empty even though the attacks have mostly subsided. Although the town remains staunchly conservative, there are rumblings of displeasure with Netanyahu’s handling of the latest war against the militant group Hezbollah, and that could bode poorly for him in Israel’s election Tuesday.

Vowing to stop Hezbollah’s attacks, Netanyahu led a bombing campaign in Lebanon and invaded the country twice since 2023. More than 4,000 Lebanese have been killed, and Israeli troops have occupied a swath of southern Lebanon, leveling multiple towns and displacing an estimated 1 million people.

Still, Hezbollah remains active. Some in Kiryat Shmona say Israel should have been even tougher; others say they no longer trust that Netanyahu cares about them.

Eti Ben Shabat, 64, says in previous elections she had always followed her family in voting for Likud, almost without thinking. But in recent years, she said, something snapped. She pointed in part to Netanyahu’s broken promises to bring security to the north and dismantle Hezbollah. “I don’t want the lies to continue,” she said.

In previous elections, support went heavy for Netanyahu Netanyahu is unlikely to lose Kiryat Shmona entirely. But even a small dip in its support — and that of other traditional strongholds — could spell trouble for him.

It could tip a very tight election to the man aiming to replace him, Gadi Eisenkot Or it could strengthen far-right parties, which would likely back Netanyahu to remain prime minister but would then have even greater power in a ruling coalition.

Kiryat Shmona has always supported right-wing parties, particularly Likud. In the last elections held in 2021 and 2022, around 50% of voters there chose Likud, compared to a quarter of voters nationwide, according to the Central Elections Committee.

“Kiryat Shmona, the way the city is socioeconomically and religion-wise, it is made for the right and specifically Likud,” said Sami Malul, 72, a retired Likud city councilor who served as the town’s acting mayor in 2008.

But the town is reeling from the war. The government evacuated Kiryat Shmona and dozens of other towns and villages along the Lebanese border for more than a year – from the time Hezbollah began firing on Israel after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel until a ceasefire with Hezbollah was reached in late 2024.

Netanyahu claimed to have subdued Hezbollah. So trust in him shattered among some in Kiryat Shmona when Hezbollah missiles again started hitting in March after Israel and the U.S. launched their war on Iran.

Israel’s subsequent occupation of southern Lebanon has reduced but not stopped Hezbollah fire. Efforts by the Lebanese army to remove Hezbollah from southern Lebanon have made little progress.

Kiryat Shmona claims that nearly 80% of its 22,000 residents have returned, but locals say the real figure is closer to 50%. Streets feel empty and abandoned. On the main commercial drags, several shops remain shuttered. Others are open but devoid of customers.

Malul insists the government handled the war and the evacuation well, prioritizing residents’ safety. He argued Kiryat Shmona has faced attacks since its founding and Netanyahu isn’t to blame for the current situation. Many others feel the same.

“We really love Bibi, and we can’t choose anyone else, but he should see the needs of his people,” said Maimon Amsalem, using Netanyahu’s nickname. “Keeping our security is the most important thing, we don’t want anything else.”

For some, three years of war triggers a dramatic shift Nissan Zeevi, a third-generation resident of northern Israel who lives in a town adjacent to Kiryat Shmona, has voted for Likud as long as he can remember. But this year he is running for a seat in parliament with the Beyachad opposition party, furious over what he calls Netanyahu’s “abandonment of the north.”During the most recent war with Hezbollah, Zeevi founded Lobby 1701, an activist group advocating for better security in the north. He wants the Israeli military to increase its attacks against Hezbollah and maintain its buffer zone in southern Lebanon until the Lebanese government identifies Hezbollah as a terror organization.

“Residents in the north have been in a war for three years that hasn’t ended,” said Zeevi. “You can see the people’s great frustration and great disappointment in Netanyahu.”

“Netanyahu still has his base here, who will go with him through fire and water. But people have much more political awareness now,” said Zeevi. “After 20 years, he needs to make way for new leadership.”

In a small town, voting along family lines Around town, there’s little evidence that elections are just days away, and little outward excitement for Likud or Netanyahu. A few scattered campaign posters for the smaller right-wing parties flutter at intersections or are glued onto mobile bomb shelters. Few residents wanted to speak about politics, citing a general feeling of hopelessness and frustration.

No candidates have offered a concrete plan for the conflict with Hezbollah, beyond offering vague promises of “strong defense.”In northern Israel as a whole, support for Netanyahu dropped from around 29% just before the last election in 2022 to around 17% in a poll conducted earlier this month for Agam Labs at Hebrew University.

Nimrod Nir, the director of Agam Labs, said most Likud voters frustrated with Netanyahu will likely support hardline parties like Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) and the Religious Zionist Party, which advocate tough military action against Israel’s enemies.

Waiting outside a downtown hairdresser in Kiryat Shmona, Ben Shabat talked about her decision to support Eisenkot, a former military chief who ordered disproportionate force in response to Hezbollah attacks when he was a general during a 2006 war.

Ben Shabat said she trusts Eisenkot as a more honest leader than Netanyahu, who she feels made little effort to connect with residents in the north and sent soldiers to fight while his own son was in a luxury apartment in Miami. She also pointed to his ongoing corruption trial Netanyahu made a brief campaign stop in the town on Tuesday. He visited a high school and university, events that were closed to the public, but did not walk around downtown to mingle with residents, as other candidates have done.

Her decision to vote for Eisenkot wasn’t easy in a place where Likud support is a matter of identity more than ideology. The town is overwhelmingly made up of Mizrahi Jews, who arrived from Arabic-speaking countries in the Middle East and North Africa in the 1950s.

Mizrahi Jews often identify with the right and especially Likud, having faced discrimination by the European-descended elites that traditionally dominate Israeli government, military and business institutions.

“Kiryat Shmona is like a small family, we’re always helping each other, it’s one of the things I love about it,” Ben Shabat said. But that close-knit support also comes with social pressure to vote a certain way.

At a recent meetup for Eisenkot supporters, the room was packed, but people did not want photos taken of the audience, worrying what their family or neighbors would think, Ben Shabat said.

“It’s a small place, so people aren’t speaking about it openly,” she said. “But inside, people really want a change.”