以色列将于周二举行大选，所以我参加了一个在线测试，看看如果我像作为基督徒那样虔诚地信奉犹太教，我可能会投给谁。结果令人惊讶：一个名为拉姆（Ra’am）的伊斯兰主义团体。
Israel goes to the polls on Tuesday, so I took one of those online tests to find out who, if I were as religious a Jew as I am a Christian, I’d likely vote for. The answer was a surprise: an Islamist group called Ra’am.
我的大多数答案偏向保守，从反对同性婚姻到增加国防开支——再加上逾越节期间禁止食用发酵面包——但我勾选了“从加沙撤军”这一选项，算法便将我归入了一个阿拉伯政党。这提醒我们，在文化层面，宗教犹太人和穆斯林的共同点比他们愿意承认的要多。此外，缺乏一个主张建立巴勒斯坦国的有力犹太政党，表明两国方案已死。10月7日后的以色列达成了一致：安全至上。
Most of my answers were conservative, from opposing gay marriage to spending more on defence – plus a ban on leavened bread during Passover – but I ticked the “withdraw from Gaza” box and the algorithm flipped me to an Arab party. It’s a reminder that, culturally, religious Jews and Muslims have more in common than they care to admit. Also, the absence of a serious Jewish party pushing for a Palestinian homeland indicates that the two-state solution is dead. Israel post-October 7 is unanimous: security comes first.
那么，这次选举关乎什么？关乎本雅明·内塔尼亚胡。支持还是反对。主张让他回归总理职位的联盟认为，他在以色列最危急的时刻拯救了国家；反对者则说他危及国家。客观分析支持后一种观点。
So, what is the election about? Benjamin Netanyahu. For or against. The coalition that would return him as PM believes he saved Israel in its hour of need; those opposed say he endangers it. Objective analysis supports the latter.
首先，10月7日袭击发生时他掌管国家。比比（Bibi）否认了关于他事先收到预警的令人不安的指控；无论哪种情况，他都未能阻止以色列历史上最严重的安全灾难，这本应成为自动取消资格的理由。随后，他发动了一场针对哈马斯的战争，导致数千人死亡，并引发了严重的战争罪指控。比比声称他在为西方文明进行最后的抵抗，然而西方世界大部分却想把他送进监狱。
For a start, he was in charge on October 7. Bibi denies troubling claims that he was warned in advance; either way, he failed to prevent the worst security disaster in Israeli history, which ought to be an automatic disqualifier. Then he launched a war against Hamas that has killed thousands and led to serious charges of war crimes. Bibi says he’s making a last stand for Western civilisation, yet much of the West wants to put him in jail.
然而，选民坚定支持他对加沙的打压。更具争议的是他试图限制司法权力，以及他与法西斯分子结盟——其中包括伊塔马尔·本-格维尔，他在翻领上佩戴绞索，以宣扬他对巴勒斯坦人实施选择性死刑的支持——或者与哈雷迪少数派结盟，后者拒绝服兵役，这种豁免权在战时既迷人又令人不快。总之，宪法赋予微小政党不成比例的影响力，使得部门利益能够左右局势。带有党派色彩的中央选举委员会甚至试图禁止拉阿姆党（该党主张和平且推出犹太裔候选人）参选。最高法院介入否决了这一禁令。
Voters, however, solidly back his suppression of Gaza. It’s his attempts to curb the judiciary that are more controversial, along with his alliance with fascists – including Itamar Ben-Gvir, who wears a noose on his lapel to advertise his support for a selective death penalty for Palestinians – or with the Haredi minority, whose refusal to be conscripted is a charming but chafing exemption in times of war. In sum, the constitution grants disproportionate influence to tiny parties, allowing sectional interests to call the shots. The partisan Central Elections Committee actually attempted to ban Ra’am (which is peaceful and stands Jewish candidates) from running in the election. The Supreme Court stepped in to veto the proscription.
以色列政治既反动又自由，既怪诞又微妙——超越简单的定义。是的，基督徒偶尔会被吐口水，但这属违法并会导致逮捕。主要政客确实发表过种族灭绝言论，但如何解释以色列致力为加沙接种脊髓灰质炎疫苗？内塔尼亚胡无疑支持寻求殖民约旦河西岸的极端分子，并对当地巴勒斯坦人实施集体惩罚：上周，士兵为回应针对检查站的致命袭击，夷平了希伯伦的一个社区。
Israeli politics is reactionary and liberal, weird and nuanced – beyond easy definition. Yes, Christians are occasionally spat at, but this is illegal and results in arrest. Leading politicians have made genocidal comments, true, but how does one account for Israel working to vaccinate Gaza for polio? Bibi has supported extremists seeking to colonise the West Bank, no doubt, and has dished out collective punishment to local Palestinians: last week, soldiers levelled a neighbourhood in Hebron in response to a deadly attack on a checkpoint.
然而巴勒斯坦权力机构获准运作，而成千上万以色列人在定居点过着平静生活，不受世界媒体打扰。外国人选择为何事愤怒，真是耐人寻味。
And yet the Palestinian Authority is allowed to function, while thousands of Israelis live peaceful lives in settlements, unmolested by the world’s media. It’s funny what foreigners choose to get angry about.
正如中东问题专家、两部佳作作者西蒙·塞巴格·蒙蒂菲奥里所指出的，土耳其或许清洗了本都希腊人、入侵了塞浦路斯或占领了叙利亚北部，但它依然是北约成员国，而塞浦路斯国旗极少出现在被烧毁的法国市政厅上空。绿党将犹太复国主义定性为“种族主义”的动议具有选择性且无知。犹太复国主义有多种表达形式，无论是世俗还是宗教，都是一个民族身份认同不可分割的一部分，这个民族在逾越节时会说：“明年在耶路撒冷！”
As Simon Sebag Montefiore, author of two superb books on the Middle East, has noted, Turkey might have cleansed its Pontic Greeks, invaded Cyprus or occupied northern Syria, yet it remains a member of Nato and the Cypriot flag is rarely hoisted above burning French town halls. The Green Party motion designating Zionism as “racism” was selective and ignorant. Zionism has many expressions, secular or religious, and is an integral part of the identity of a people who at Passover say: “Next year in Jerusalem!”
现代犹太复国主义之父西奥多·赫茨尔希望这座城市能够共享——“其圣地为所有信徒共同拥有”，并承诺阿拉伯人不会被驱逐，享有充分权利，推定是在奥斯曼帝国（后来的土耳其帝国）的庇护之下。
Theodor Herzl, the father of the modern movement, wanted the city to be shared – “its Holy Places the joint possession of all Believers” – and promised Arabs no expulsions, full rights, presumably under the aegis of the Ottoman (later Turkish) empire.
有人可能会反驳说，犹太复国主义的美好梦想被占领和战争的现实所否定。清醒的犹太复国主义者会同意这一点。1972年，当被问及该国乌托邦愿景哪里出了问题时，戈尔达·梅厄悲伤地归咎于阿拉伯人的暴力，当然，也归咎于贪婪和以色列社会内部的政治分歧——这是一个预言，而内塔尼亚胡正在应验它，他以国家的未来为代价换取短期的政治生存。
One might counter that the beautiful dream of Zionism is contradicted by the reality of occupation and war. Sober Zionists would agree. In 1972, when asked what went wrong with the utopian vision for her country, Golda Meir sadly blamed Arab violence, of course, but also greed and the political divisions within Israeli society – a prophecy that Bibi fulfils, having leveraged his short-term political survival over the future of his country.
在他的领导下，以色列并未处于和平状态。它正在多条战线上作战。其安全依赖于美国的善意，然而内塔尼亚胡支持的与伊朗的冲突损害了美国经济，甚至在共和党内部也玷污了以色列的声誉。反对入侵加沙很可能会成为民主党总统初选中的试金石。
Israel is not at peace under his leadership. It is at war on several fronts. Its security depends upon the goodwill of the United States, yet the Bibi-backed conflict with Iran has damaged the US economy and sullied the reputation of Israel even within Republican ranks. Opposition to the Gaza invasion will probably be a litmus test in the Democratic presidential primaries.
内塔尼亚胡长期主张，以色列代表所有犹太人发声，而内塔尼亚胡本人则独一无二地代表以色列发声：这在任何有头脑的人看来都是站不住脚的，却成了反犹太主义者的精神鸦片。极右翼播客主持人如今公开指称犹太人控制政治，并以内塔尼亚胡的好战姿态为证，证明存在黑暗势力操控。“如果不是阴谋，他怎么能逍遥法外？”
Netanyahu has long argued that Israel speaks for all Jews and Netanyahu, uniquely, speaks for Israel: it is specious to anyone with a brain, but catnip for anti-Semites. Far-right podcasters now openly allege that Jews control politics, and point to Netanyahu’s belligerence as evidence of dark influence. “How else does he get away with it if not by conspiracy?”
随着反犹太主义在多重温床中滋长——左翼、右翼、穆斯林或基督徒阵营皆有——有一个悲剧性的论点不得不提出：加沙战争让全球犹太群体变得更脆弱，而非更安全。西方主流政客虽有反驳，但其公信力因战场画面而动摇。当人们能在手机上看到废墟与残肢——母亲为死去的孩子痛哭——面对电视镜头声称“以色列在糟糕局势下已尽最大努力”，无异于让理智对抗情感。理智大约在三年前就已落败。
As anti-Semitism flourishes under multiple rocks – left, right, Muslim or Christian – there is a tragic case to be made that the Gaza war has left global Jewish populations more vulnerable, not less. Mainstream Western politicians have pushed back, but their credibility is weakened by battlefield footage. To face a TV camera and claim “Israel is doing its best in a bad situation” when people can see, on their phones, rubble and limbs – mothers crying for dead children – is to pit the head against the heart. The head lost about three years ago.
这绝不为受害者有罪论辩护。以色列遭到了袭击，她有权自卫；如果以色列人不在乎海外同情者怎么想，我能理解。但无法回避的是，加沙已成为这个时代的越南——内塔尼亚胡以这种无情傲慢的方式指挥战争、为战争辩护，让整整一代人对犹太复国主义彻底失望。
None of this justifies victim blaming. Israel was attacked; she had a right to defend herself; I understand if Israelis don’t give a damn what bleeding hearts think about abroad. But there’s no escaping that Gaza has become the Vietnam of its time – that the way Netanyahu has prosecuted this conflict, arguing for it with such pitiless arrogance, has turned a whole generation off Zionism.
让我们残酷地诚实面对。当我还是个男孩时，大屠杀的记忆还很鲜活，为犹太人建立家园仍被广泛视为一项人权事业。如今，在西方人的想象中，这一事业已被对巴勒斯坦建国的诉求所掩蔽，而以色列被普遍视为这一诉求的顽固、甚至残酷的对立面。
Let’s be brutally honest. When I was a boy, and memories of the Holocaust were fresher, creating a homeland for the Jews was still widely regarded as a human-rights cause. Now it is eclipsed in the Western imagination by the demand for Palestinian statehood, to which Israel is broadly perceived as an implacable, even cruel opponent.
加沙确实改变了我。它让我对国际主义和公民权利更加同情，彻底反对种族主义，对战争的态度更加不赞同，因为战争收获的是毒果。我感到绝望。我们这个时代真正的强者，无论男女，在哪里？我们的戈尔巴乔夫、德克勒克或拉宾在哪里？那些愿意直视自己选民的眼睛，说出“我们必须为和平妥协”的领袖在哪里？
Gaza has certainly changed me. It has made me more sympathetic towards internationalism and civil rights, utterly opposed to racism, even less favourable towards warfare, which reaps a poisonous harvest. And I despair. Where are the truly strong men, or women, of our time? Where is our Gorbachev, de Klerk or Rabin, leaders willing to look their own constituencies in the eye and say: “We must compromise for peace?”