
随着与美国爆发新战争的威胁逼近,强硬派政治派别“伊斯兰革命稳定阵线”(又称“帕伊达里阵线”)已要求伊朗议会和最高国家安全委员会启动退出《不扩散核武器条约》的程序。
As the threat of a new war with the United States looms, the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability, a hardline political faction also known as the Paydari Front, has asked the Iranian parliament and the Supreme National Security Council to initiate a withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
此举被解读为呼吁伊朗发展核武器,帕伊达里阵线称这些军事努力应当“尽可能快地”推进。
This move has been interpreted as a call for Iran to develop nuclear weapons, with the Paydari Front saying these military endeavours should happen “as quickly as possible”.
这是伊朗强硬派针对华盛顿发出的最新大胆挑衅信息。此前,美国和以色列于2月28日以德黑兰试图发展核武器为借口,对伊朗发动了战争。
It is the latest bold and defiant message by Iran’s hardliners against Washington, after the US and Israel launched a war on Iran on February 28 on the pretext that Tehran was trying to develop nuclear weapons.
这场战争导致霍尔木兹海峡对航运基本关闭,导弹和空袭对伊朗及阿拉伯国家的基础设施造成大规模破坏,全球能源供应也受到巨大冲击。
The war has seen the Strait of Hormuz largely closed to shipping, massive damage to Iranian and Arab infrastructure in missile and air strikes, and huge disruptions to global energy supplies.
过去八个月还标志着温和派与中间派(如总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬,他们总体上主张与美国谈判)与帕伊达里阵线中不主张谈判的强硬派之间持续存在的生死攸关的权力斗争。
The past eight months have also marked an ongoing existential power struggle between moderates and centrists, such as President Masoud Pezeshkian, who generally favour talks with the US, and hardliners in the Paydari Front who do not.
归根结底,温和派阵营希望迅速结束冲突,以挽救伊朗摇摇欲坠的经济。强硬派则认为华盛顿只懂得武力语言,因此战争应当持续下去,直到美国向伊朗的要求屈服。这场国内角力可以在伊朗各大城市的公共广场上看到——过去200天里,强硬派阵营的支持者每晚都在那里集会。
Ultimately, the moderate camp wants a swift end to the conflict to save Iran’s crumbling economy. Hardliners believe Washington only understands the language of force, so the war should continue until the US capitulates to Iran’s demands The domestic rivalry can be seen in the public squares of major Iranian cities, where for the past 200 days supporters of the hardline faction have rallied at night.
起初,这些集会是民众公开表达对政府支持、抗议美国无端对伊朗发动战争的方式。随着时间推移,它们已演变为高度组织化的政治集会,活动人士可以在集会上公开表达对温和派通过外交渠道结束战争努力的强烈反对。
Initially, these gatherings were a way for people to express public support for the government and protest the unprovoked US war on Iran. Over time, they have evolved into highly organised political rallies where activists can publicly express their strong opposition to moderates’ efforts to end the war through diplomatic channels.
强硬派的口号包括“不妥协、不投降——对抗美国”以及“与敌人谈判就是背叛祖国”。
The hardliners’ slogans include “No compromise, no surrender – the fight against America” and “Negotiating with the enemy is a betrayal of the homeland”.
他们还抗议总统佩泽希齐扬9月从联合国大会返回德黑兰,当时他谴责了美国的战争,但也赞扬了外交的美德。这些纠察活动被视为一种方式,让他们的“反谈判”信息传达到总统耳中。
They also protested against President Pezeshkian’s return to Tehran from the UN General Assembly in September where he condemned the US war but also extolled the virtues of diplomacy The pickets were viewed as a way for their “anti-negotiation” message to be heard by the president.
这一阵营在活动家圈子之外拥有相当大的权力。强硬派在德黑兰市政府、议会、宗教布道者和悼词朗诵者中,以及学术界和媒体界都有强大的存在感。
This bloc has considerable power beyond these activist circles. Hardliners have a strong presence in Tehran’s municipal government, the parliament, among religious preachers and eulogists, and academia and the media.
与坚韧阵线结盟的议员阿米尔侯赛因·萨贝蒂在一份声明中表示,除非华盛顿对伊朗南部港口的封锁或制裁结束,否则与美国的谈判不会开始。
Amirhossein Sabeti, a member of parliament aligned with the Paydari Front, said in a statement that negotiations with the US will not begin unless Washington’s siege on Iran’s southern ports or sanctions end.
他说:“敌人摧毁伊朗的目标没有改变。它只是在等待合适的时机发动另一次突袭。那些认为谈判能防止战争,或者美国会通过谈判解除制裁的人,不懂得世界如何运作,是在自我欺骗。世界唯一听得懂的语言是强权语言。”萨贝蒂所属的政治派别已在伊朗议会提出动议,要求弹劾外交部长阿拉格齐,此前阿拉格齐曾前往纽约出席联合国大会。伊朗议会还在考虑一项将接受外国媒体采访定罪的法律,这将是强硬派的又一胜利。
“The enemy’s objective of destroying Iran has not changed. It is simply waiting for the right moment to launch another surprise attack. Those who thought negotiations could prevent war, or that the United States would lift sanctions through negotiations, did not understand how the world works and were deluding themselves,” he said. “The only language the world understands is the language of power.”The political faction to which Sabeti belongs has filed a motion in the Iranian parliament to impeach Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, following his visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly. Iran’s parliament is also considering a law to criminalise interviews with foreign media outlets, which would be another win for hardliners.
但随着针对伊朗外长的弹劾动议在议会推进,支持政府的政治阵营继续主张通过外交手段解决当前冲突。
But as the impeachment motion against Iran’s foreign minister moves through parliament, the political camp supporting the government continues to advocate for a diplomatic solution to the current conflict.
被认为与佩泽希齐安关系密切的记者达武德·赫什马蒂表示,有迹象显示,美军已放弃推翻伊朗政府的宏大野心,转而选择更为温和的目标,这使得外交解决的可能性更大。
Davood Heshmati, a journalist considered close to Pezeshkian, said there are signs that US forces have foregone the grand ambition of overthrowing the Iranian government and have instead opted for more modest aims, which makes a diplomatic solution more likely.
“实现这些其他目标有几种途径,其中一种是战争。但无论如何,要防止战争,必须首先尝试所有军事行动以外的替代方案。谈判和外交协议就是这些替代方案之一,它们应始终优先于战争,”赫什马蒂对半岛电视台表示。
“There are several ways to achieve those other goals, one of which is war. But, in any case, to prevent a war, all alternatives to military action must first be tested. Negotiations and a diplomatic agreement are among those alternatives, and they should always take precedence over war,” Heshmati told Al Jazeera.
“主张霍尔木兹海峡不得重新开放的人,是认为战争不应结束的人。从伊朗反谈判阵营的角度来看,伊朗与美国之间的战争没有尽头。他们没有解释的是,他们指望这场战争带来什么结果。他们似乎认为,经过几轮交战后,美国就会直接退出冲突。但这一想法似乎与我们所目睹的逻辑不符。” 2026年7月14日,哀悼者在德黑兰的伊玛目霍梅尼大清真寺悼念已故最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊 他指出,要让任何战争结束,都需要达成一种尊重伊朗领土完整的与美国的谅解。
“Those who say the Strait of Hormuz must not be reopened are people who believe the war must not end. From the perspective of Iran’s anti-negotiation camp, the war between Iran and the United States has no end. What they do not explain is what outcome they expect from this war. They seem to believe that, after several rounds of fighting, the United States will simply walk away from the conflict. But that idea does not appear to be consistent with the logic of what we are witnessing.”Mourners commemorate the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the Imam Khomeini Mosalla Grand Mosque in Tehran on July 14, 2026 He indicated that for any war to end, there needs to be an understanding with the US that respects Iran’s territorial integrity.

“伊朗支持谈判的人认为,力量平衡不一定非要通过战争来实现,尽管考虑到外交途径上发生的一切,存在的不信任是可以理解的,”他说。
“Those in Iran who support negotiations argue that a balance of power does not necessarily have to be achieved through war, although, given everything that has happened along the diplomatic path, the distrust that exists is understandable,” he said.
政治分析人士内加尔·莫尔塔扎维认为,强硬派群体是一股强大的国内力量,但它们目前对伊朗外交政策的影响力有限。
Political analyst Negar Mortazavi argues that hardline groups are a powerful domestic force, but they currently have limited influence over Iran’s foreign policy.
“伊朗的强硬派并非边缘政治力量。他们是伊朗政治体制中组织严密、根基深厚的一部分。他们的力量在于动员支持者、塑造政治话语、向政府施压以及提高外交的政治成本的能力,”她说。
“Iran’s hardliners are not a marginal political force. They are a well-organised and deeply entrenched part of [Iran’s] political establishment. Their strength lies in their ability to mobilise supporters, shape political discourse, pressure the government, and raise the political cost of diplomacy,” she said.
“但政治影响力不应与最终决策权混为一谈。关于战争、和平与谈判的决定,是在伊朗最高领导层和国家安全机构层面做出的。”她说,强硬派可以继续对抗谈判代表、威胁弹劾提议与美国对话的人士,并试图阻挠外交努力。但如果得到该国主要掌权者的支持,包括最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊和最高国家安全委员会,他们无法阻止协议的达成。
“But political influence should not be confused with ultimate decision-making authority. Decisions about war, peace, and negotiations are made at the highest levels of Iran’s leadership and national security establishment.”Hardliners can continue to confront negotiators, threaten impeachments against those who propose talks with the US, and try to obstruct diplomatic endeavours, she said. But they cannot prevent an agreement being reached if it is backed by the country’s main powerholders, including Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council.
“强硬派有足够的力量使外交复杂化,但不一定有足够的力量叫停外交。他们是一个高度可见且声音响亮的政治力量,但并非掌握决策大权的人,”穆尔塔扎维告诉半岛电视台。
“The [hardliners] are powerful enough to complicate diplomacy, but not necessarily powerful enough to stop it. [They] are a highly visible and vocal political force, but they are not calling the shots,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.
“在整个战争期间,德黑兰始终为外交敞开大门,最高领导层的决定是寻求与美国谈判并达成协议。强硬派未能阻止这一点。他们权力的真正考验在于,他们无法在奥巴马执政时期阻止伊核协议(JCPOA)的达成,也无法阻止最近与特朗普达成的谅解备忘录(MoU)。最终,决定是在他们的头顶上做出的。” 反对以和平方式解决美以对伊战争的街头集会和电视节目将继续。但外长弹劾听证会的推迟,加上为结束战争而与调解人持续进行的外交接触,表明温和派仍是一股不可小觑的力量。
“Throughout the war, Tehran has kept the door open to diplomacy, and the decision at the highest levels of leadership has been to pursue negotiations with the United States and seek an agreement. The hardliners have been unable to stop that. The real test of their power is that they could not stop the JCPOA [nuclear agreement] under [former President Barack] Obama, and they could not stop the more recent MoU [memorandum of understanding] with Trump. Ultimately, the decisions were made above their heads.”Street rallies and television programmes opposing a peaceful solution to the US-Israeli war against Iran will continue. But the delay in scheduling the foreign minister’s impeachment hearing, alongside continued diplomatic engagement with mediators to end the war, suggests that the moderates are still a force to be reckoned with.