在让投资者措手不及这方面，亚洲的央行可谓接连出招。新西兰央行周三维持利率不变，这是一连串出人意料决定中的最新一个。接受彭博调查的经济学家几乎没有人预料到这一举动——其中一位说“坦白说，他惊呆了”。投资者也没有料到，新西兰元应声下跌。
When it comes to wrongfooting investors, Asia’s central banks are on a roll. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered the latest in a string of unexpected decisions Wednesday, by keeping interest rates unchanged. Almost no economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the move — one said he was “frankly flabbergasted.”Neither did investors, and the kiwi slumped.
过去两周，印尼和新加坡的政策制定者也在外界预期会收紧政策之际选择按兵不动——而菲律宾央行则反其道而行之，以超大幅加息令人意外。
Over the past two weeks, policymakers in Indonesia and Singapore also opted to stand pat when they’d been expected to tighten – while the Philippines’ central bank surprised in the opposite direction with an outsized hike.
这印证了风险叠加正使亚洲货币政策主管们更难规划路线，也使投资者更难解读他们的信号。全球能源冲击意味着通胀高于目标水平，但这也拖累了消费者。人工智能芯片热潮也推高了价格——并为出口商带来了繁荣，但这种繁荣掩盖了其经济其他领域需求低迷的现实。
It’s evidence of the compounding risks that make it harder for Asian monetary chiefs to chart a course, and investors to decipher their signals. The global energy shock means above-target inflation, but it’s also a drag on consumers. The AI chip boom has pushed prices up too — and delivered a boom for exporters, but one that masks subdued demand elsewhere in their economies.
野村控股经济学家尤本·帕拉库埃列斯表示，所有这些都反映出“一个高度不确定的环境以及多重冲击，央行和市场都仍在努力应对”。“在这种背景下，沟通挑战也可能出现，从而降低决策的可预测性。”新西兰出人意料的决定导致新西兰元兑澳元创下九年来最大跌幅。澳大利亚央行下周也将成为关注焦点。近期一些鹰派言论让投资者预测会加息，尽管不久前他们还认为就业市场疲软可能会让澳大利亚央行按兵不动。
All of this reflects “a highly uncertain environment and multiple shocks that both central banks and markets continue to grapple with,” said Nomura Holdings Inc. economist Euben Paracuelles. “In that backdrop, communication challenges can also arise, reducing the predictability of decisions.”The unpredicted decision in New Zealand triggered the currency’s steepest drop in nine years, relative to its Australian peer. The Reserve Bank of Australia takes its own turn in the spotlight next week. Some hawkish comments lately have gotten investors predicting a hike, though not long ago they thought job-market weakness might stay the RBA’s hand.
到那时，美联储将至少消除一个不确定性。美联储将于美国时间周三晚些时候做出利率决定，预计将维持政策不变。
By that time, the Federal Reserve will have removed at least one uncertainty. It’s due to make a rate decision later on Wednesday US time, and is expected to keep policy unchanged.
美联储上个月的加息对亚洲影响巨大，引发外资流出，推动一些货币逼近历史低点。这加大了本地央行跟进加息的压力。当印尼上周未能跟进时，印尼盾进一步下跌。
The Fed’s rate increase last month loomed large over Asia, triggering outflows of foreign cash that pushed some currencies near record lows. It added to pressure on local peers to match the hike. When Indonesia failed to do so last week, the rupiah extended losses.
新西兰联储主席安娜·布雷曼周三告诉记者，就新西兰联储而言，利率决策会议前——在该行的静默期——公布的优于预期的通胀报告对维持利率不变的决定起到了关键作用。
In the RBNZ’s case, a better-than-expected inflation report just before the rate-setting meeting — during the bank’s blackout period — proved pivotal to the hold decision, Governor Anna Breman told reporters Wednesday.
她还提到了央行微妙的平衡之举，称其致力于将通胀恢复到目标水平，但将在“避免不必要的经济不稳定”的同时做到这一点。新加坡JB Drax Honore亚太区首席策略师肖恩·基恩表示，缺点是这反而“给金融市场造成了不必要的波动”。同样的推拉因素混杂在该地区其他地方也在发挥作用。
She also nodded to the central bank’s delicate balancing act, saying it’s committed to returning inflation to target but will do so while “avoiding unnecessary economic instability.”The downside was that “it creates unnecessary instability in financial markets” instead, according to Sean Keane, chief strategist for Asia Pacific at JB Drax Honore in Singapore. The same mix of push and pull factors are at work elsewhere in the region.
即使在韩国和新加坡等芯片生产国，人工智能需求的激增推动了出口飙升，但能源价格仍在对交通运输、食品和公用事业等经济其他领域构成压力。对于那些被排除在芯片繁荣之外的国家来说，这种影响更为严重。
Even in chip producers like South Korea and Singapore, where surging AI demand has sent exports soaring, energy prices are weighing on other areas of the economy like transport, food and utilities. That impact is all the harsher in countries left out of the chip boom.
还有一种普遍观点认为，如果美国和以色列在选举后恢复攻击，中东战事可能再次爆发，进一步挤压能源流动。
There’s also a widespread view that Middle East fighting could flare up again if the US and Israel resume their attacks after elections, squeezing energy flows even more.
科技行业不断增长的债务负担，以及政治阻力和安全担忧，有可能使人工智能热潮停滞。如果出现任何泡沫破裂，亚洲很可能处于前线。
And the growing debt pile in tech industries, as well as political pushback and security concerns, risk stalling the AI boom. Asia will likely be on the frontlines of any bust.
分析师普遍认为，亚洲将继续走在全球其他地区也已开始的加息道路上。但加息的时机和幅度可能变得越来越不确定。
Analysts generally reckon Asia will stay on the rate-hike path that global peers have also embarked on. But the timing and magnitude of moves could become increasingly uncertain.
“鉴于人工智能投资热潮和高油价对该地区的影响并不均衡，”澳新银行亚洲研究主管吴坤表示，“我们可能会看到更多央行做出出人意料的决定。”
“Given the uneven nature of the impact of the AI investment boom and high oil prices across the region,” said Khoon Goh — head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group – “we could potentially see more central bank surprises.”